AHC/WI: Alternate British Military Nuclear Program (Cold War)

[Delta Force]

I know (we get most of our Tritium from Canada nowadays, at least for safeguarded purposes - I deal with it at work) - but the interesting thing is that the UK was capable of producing far more HEU at Capenhurst than it did from some time in the seventies onwards. Instead, they traded for it with the US - and I'm not quite sure if that says something about the price of UK Plutonium or US HEU.

According to this, Magnox produced one gram of plutonium per day per megawatt of thermal output. That's about twice as much as other designs. Because Magnox requires reprocessing because its magnesium cladding is unsuitable for long term storage, the United Kingdom has (and likely had) a lot of reprocessed plutonium in stockpiles. Plutonium has few current uses other than weapons and MOX fuel, so trading some for HEU could be expedient. The United States and France (after the early 1970s) had additional uranium enrichment capacity but not as much plutonium as the United Kingdom, so that explains the transfer patterns, or at least hypothetical ones in the case of France.

 

[Delta Force]

What about the British military peogram itself? What does an independent or Anglo-French naval reactor and/or weapons program look like?

 

[pdf27]

What about the British military peogram itself? What does an independent or Anglo-French naval reactor and/or weapons program look like?

The naval reactor would have been a PWR, that's well established - in reality without the export requirements in a joint Anglo-French programme it would have looked very like the current Rolls-Royce PWR designs.
The weapons programme would have been pretty close to the Grapple Z series - testing was getting much harder for political reasons (the Grapple series were really rushed as a result of political nerves) and the UK was vastly more advanced than France at the time. That means spherical rather than cylindrical secondaries but otherwise broadly similar to the US designs ultimately adopted, just a little cruder and later.

 

[Delta Force]

The naval reactor would have been a PWR, that's well established - in reality without the export requirements in a joint Anglo-French programme it would have looked very like the current Rolls-Royce PWR designs.
The weapons programme would have been pretty close to the Grapple Z series - testing was getting much harder for political reasons (the Grapple series were really rushed as a result of political nerves) and the UK was vastly more advanced than France at the time. That means spherical rather than cylindrical secondaries but otherwise broadly similar to the US designs ultimately adopted, just a little cruder and later.

Would an Anglo-French program move nuclear testing to Algeria, French Polynesia, or somewhere else?

 

[pdf27]

Why? They already had everything set up at Malden/Christmas Islands, if they move they have to set up new infrastructure all over again at fairly substantial cost.

 

[Delta Force]

Why? They already had everything set up at Malden/Christmas Islands, if they move they have to set up new infrastructure all over again at fairly substantial cost.

I didn't know about that. I thought the British went from Australia to Nevada. It looks like it would actually be the French moving to test at Malden/Kiritimati.

 

[pdf27]

I didn't know about that. I thought the British went from Australia to Nevada. It looks like it would actually be the French moving to test at Malden/Kiritimati.

There were three test sites in Australia (Monte Bello, Emu Field and Maralinga) and two in the Pacific (Malden and Christmas Islands). The first test (Hurricane, 1952) was in the Monte Bello islands, plus two subsequent tests (Mosaic G1 and G2, 1965) when the other test sites weren't available. Subsequent testing of small weapons was in Australia at Emu Field (Totem 1 and 2, October 1953) and later at Maralinga (One Tree/Marcoo/Kite/Breakaway in 1956, Tadje/Biak/Taranaki in 1957). At this point the problem started to occur that the yields they needed were greater than permitted by an assurance they had given the Australian Prime Minister after IIRC Hurricane, so while some testing continued at Maralinga (effects of fire on weapons, neutron initiators, etc.) the rest moved to the Pacific.
Short Granite, Orange Herald and Purple Granite (all part of Operation Grapple) were dropped on Malden Island by Valiants flying out of Christmas Island in 1957. The original plan was that all subsequent drops would follow this schedule. When it became apparent that more testing would be needed and they would be very pressed for time due to what appeared at the time to be a pending total test ban treaty, they shifted the scheme so that Grapple X, Y and Z would be based out of and fired on Christmas Island (6 further devices - X, Y, Z1, Z2, Z3 and Z4).

After Grapple was a success the US agreed to a full sharing of weapons data with the UK, and the UK essentially adopted US designs. At this point it made logical sense to move to Nevada alongside the US designs - not only did it save money, but the designs were very similar to the US ones so both sides would benefit more from co-testing.

 

[Delta Force]

Would an Anglo-French program return to Malden and Kiritimati after the end of the test ban, or would they move it to Algeria or French Polynesia (Moruora or elsewhere)?

The British were one of the signatories of the Partial Test Ban Treaty, so I'm wondering if the French would join the treaty (they never have). If so, where would they go after 1963? Would they try for the underground testing conducted at Moruora or another island, as risky as that is?

 

[Delta Force]

Blue Streak could be promising as a ballistic missile, but it is rather large and heavy for its role. That might be because it's intended to carry a 1,360 kilogram warhead 4,000 kilometers, while most other systems carried smaller warheads smaller distances. Could its liquid fuel technology have been used to create an SLBM or silo based launcher with a faster fueling time to carry a 500 kilogram warhead (it seems they could make them that small given the plans for 6" tactical nuclear shells) 3,000 kilometers, as with most contemporary systems developed by the French, Italians, and Soviets?

 

[Riain]

The blue streak was to be kept fully fuelled at all times and the lox was blown on board by pressurized gas in 3 1/2 minutes while the gyros were spinning up. That is a good reaction time.

 

[Delta Force]

The blue streak was to be kept fully fuelled at all times and the lox was blown on board by pressurized gas in 3 1/2 minutes while the gyros were spinning up. That is a good reaction time.

Looking into it more, it doesn't seem much slower than what the solid fuel Minuteman missile was able to accomplish. Apparently guidance system alignment is what causes most delays and it takes a few minutes to do so. The official cancellation reason doesn't make much sense in that respect, as it wouldn't have been worse than any other missile in terms of launch time and would be faster than an aircraft on ground alert status.

Presumably there was a political reason for the cancellation? It doesn't seem to have had much basis in technical and defense capabilities.

 

[Riain]

Looking into it more, it doesn't seem much slower than what the solid fuel Minuteman missile was able to accomplish. Apparently guidance system alignment is what causes most delays and it takes a few minutes to do so. The official cancellation reason doesn't make much sense in that respect, as it wouldn't have been worse than any other missile in terms of launch time and would be faster than an aircraft on ground alert status.

Presumably there was a political reason for the cancellation? It doesn't seem to have had much basis in technical and defense capabilities.

The Blue Streak was shrouded in politic, it was what Sandys was talking about in 1957 when he declared manned aircraft obsolete. Its cancellation was part of the Skybolt for Holy Loch deal, Skybolt being mostly paid for by the US and extending the life of the V Bomber force.

When this was decided they piled on with a bunch of other bullshit about vulnerability to first strikes and the like. That is all reasonably believable, but I'd bet you dollar to donuts that if Blue Streak was cheapest they'd be all over it like a rash.

 

[Delta Force]

The Blue Streak was shrouded in politic, it was what Sandys was talking about in 1957 when he declared manned aircraft obsolete. Its cancellation was part of the Skybolt for Holy Loch deal, Skybolt being mostly paid for by the US and extending the life of the V Bomber force.

When this was decided they piled on with a bunch of other bullshit about vulnerability to first strikes and the like. That is all reasonably believable, but I'd bet you dollar to donuts that if Blue Streak was cheapest they'd be all over it like a rash.

So, in a timeline with an independent or Anglo-French program, Blue Streak would probably be deployed? Or would it be Blue Steel Mk. II or something else?

 

[Riain]

Both were in development in 1960 when Skybolt was offered and both were cancelled. I doubt the French could make use of Blue Steel MkII, it was no smaller than the original and I think was going to be considerably heavier. Blue Streak could have been a goer though, but I doubt it would be much use after 1980 or so, the French could base it deep in the interior.

The initial French delivery was the Vautour carrying the 3000lb AN11. If they came on board with the British they could use the planned Red Beard MkII, 45kt, composite core and less than 2000lbs.

Eventually the logic of an SSBN will come to the fore, but not until 1970 or so when the technology is much more mature.

 

[RLBH]

Blue Streak could be promising as a ballistic missile, but it is rather large and heavy for its role. That might be because it's intended to carry a 1,360 kilogram warhead 4,000 kilometers, while most other systems carried smaller warheads smaller distances. Could its liquid fuel technology have been used to create an SLBM or silo based launcher with a faster fueling time to carry a 500 kilogram warhead (it seems they could make them that small given the plans for 6" tactical nuclear shells) 3,000 kilometers, as with most contemporary systems developed by the French, Italians, and Soviets?

Apparently Blue Streak turned out to be rather overspecified for the job, and could actually carry a larger warhead or achieve a longer range than the specification required... no credible source, just rumour, but it is twice the size of the Thor despite carrying a similar warhead to a similar range.

Personally, I think that the reason it was cancelled had a lot to do with the cost of building underground launchers, and the politics of where to locate them. The time to load oxidiser is irrelevant, as the missiles were expected to ride out an attack before launch. Developing a useful lightweight missile shouldn't be difficult - there were notions of making one from the Black Knight that would be roughly Polaris class. The trick would be solving the yield/accuracy problem within the available weight.

To be honest, I'd look at French missiles with British physics & electronics packages. If you must have a land-based missile, Blue Streak will do in the interim, but the French solid-rocket systems are more viable in the longer term. Beef them up a bit to carry a Chevaline-type front end and you've got a very decent IRBM. Even S2 was the same weight class as Minuteman, so getting the required performance shouldn't be too much difficulty.

 

[Riain]

I think the Blue Streak is 2/3 of the Atlas ICBM more or less, so I'm not surprised that it was over specified. I think that once Britain masters thermonuclear warhead technology the Blue Streak will carry quite a powerful but light warhead with chaff and decoys as well.

Post OTL MDA by 1981 the UK built the Red Snow - W28, the ET.317 and WE.177 - W59 with British primaries and the Chevaline warhead which reused the ET.317-W59 but had a new British primary. How does this schedule superimpose onto an Anglo-French MDA?

 

[Delta Force]

Both were in development in 1960 when Skybolt was offered and both were cancelled. I doubt the French could make use of Blue Steel MkII, it was no smaller than the original and I think was going to be considerably heavier. Blue Streak could have been a goer though, but I doubt it would be much use after 1980 or so, the French could base it deep in the interior.

The initial French delivery was the Vautour carrying the 3000lb AN11. If they came on board with the British they could use the planned Red Beard MkII, 45kt, composite core and less than 2000lbs.

Eventually the logic of an SSBN will come to the fore, but not until 1970 or so when the technology is much more mature.

Based off the missile weight here and the payload capacity here, it seems the Mirage IV could have used the original Blue Steel missile. It might require folding wings for the missile though. The Mirage IV*/Mirage IVS proposal with Spey engines wouldn't have enough payload capacity to carry the Blue Steel Mk. II either, so it wouldn't make much of a difference.

 

[Delta Force]

Apparently Blue Streak turned out to be rather overspecified for the job, and could actually carry a larger warhead or achieve a longer range than the specification required... no credible source, just rumour, but it is twice the size of the Thor despite carrying a similar warhead to a similar range.

I've noticed that too. Blue Streak seems to be quite large for its capabilities.

Personally, I think that the reason it was cancelled had a lot to do with the cost of building underground launchers, and the politics of where to locate them. The time to load oxidiser is irrelevant, as the missiles were expected to ride out an attack before launch. Developing a useful lightweight missile shouldn't be difficult - there were notions of making one from the Black Knight that would be roughly Polaris class. The trick would be solving the yield/accuracy problem within the available weight.

Do you mean Black Arrow? With a smaller diameter first stage and a lower height (possibly as simple as omitting the third stage) it seems the missile could even fit in a Polaris/Poseidon launch tube (Poseidon information (here). The tube could of course be any size desired with an independent or joint deterrent, but a missile capable of fitting in Polaris/Poseidon launch tubes might be of interest to Italy.

To be honest, I'd look at French missiles with British physics & electronics packages. If you must have a land-based missile, Blue Streak will do in the interim, but the French solid-rocket systems are more viable in the longer term. Beef them up a bit to carry a Chevaline-type front end and you've got a very decent IRBM. Even S2 was the same weight class as Minuteman, so getting the required performance shouldn't be too much difficulty.

The British made major innovations with liquid fuel technology, and it's also useful for space applications. What if they had continued using it for military applications as well, or at least for larger missiles?

 

[Delta Force]

I think the Blue Streak is 2/3 of the Atlas ICBM more or less, so I'm not surprised that it was over specified. I think that once Britain masters thermonuclear warhead technology the Blue Streak will carry quite a powerful but light warhead with chaff and decoys as well.

Post OTL MDA by 1981 the UK built the Red Snow - W28, the ET.317 and WE.177 - W59 with British primaries and the Chevaline warhead which reused the ET.317-W59 but had a new British primary. How does this schedule superimpose onto an Anglo-French MDA?

1958 is the big year for nuclear matters in Europe. That's when the United States signed it's weapon agreement with the United Kingdom and it's energy agreement with Euratom. That left the French to go it alone with their weapons program and the British to go it alone with their energy program (France continued building gas cooled UNGG reactors for a fee years before transitioning to water cooling).

 

[jsb]

To be honest, I'd look at French missiles with British physics & electronics packages. If you must have a land-based missile, Blue Streak will do in the interim, but the French solid-rocket systems are more viable in the longer term. Beef them up a bit to carry a Chevaline-type front end and you've got a very decent IRBM. Even S2 was the same weight class as Minuteman, so getting the required performance shouldn't be too much difficulty.

Is Blue Streak not a much earlier system than the French missiles ?(cancelled in 1960 v a 1971 date for the French missiles)

I agree you would go solid but would it not be a fully join effort and likely SSBN based due to GB having already given up on land based missiles?