This is probably on the far end on the probability scale, but what would it take for both a Bonapartiste French empire and a Hohenzollern German empire to not only exist at the same time, but become close allies as opposed to otl's fight for dominance over Alsace-Lorraine, and how would this affect the following century onward?
AHC/WI: Alliance between the French and German Empires
- Thread starter Kaiser Tito
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You would probably have to prevent the diplomatic revolution in 1756, where before then France and Prussia were allies and Britain was allied to Austria.
kham_coc
Banned
French revanchism over AL is hard to fix, but France had concerns other than AL, there is always the Boer war, a worse Fashoda, or an earlier Soviet Union.
France needs to be turned towards the UK (and consequently desire a safe rear) Or join Germany in a coalition against the UK (for the Boers) Or be scared of the Soviets.
(or just go back another century)
France needs to be turned towards the UK (and consequently desire a safe rear) Or join Germany in a coalition against the UK (for the Boers) Or be scared of the Soviets.
(or just go back another century)
Bismarck dies 1860 or so. King Wilhelm II abdicates 1862 without having Bismarck as an option.
Prussia forms a much weaker German Empire 1870s maybe, only because of French support. The two remain allies, while the UK and Russia team up to stop them.
Prussia forms a much weaker German Empire 1870s maybe, only because of French support. The two remain allies, while the UK and Russia team up to stop them.
If we do go that far back, how can Napoleon make peace with the wanked conservative Prussians (can he do that and still be Napoleon?) after the chaos in France that he needed to take power in the first place?
Were there truly no other monarchist conservatives able to fill the role??
In 1859, the Austrians, thanks to a more competent leadership and limited army reforms, defeat the French at Solferino. While not a crippling lost, it is enough to force Napoleon III to negotiate, and withdraw from Italy, leaving it under Austrian sphere, and leavind Sardinia to its fate. This is enough to turn Napoleon into a rabid anti-Austrian, seeking to avenge this humiliation. Bismarck sees a golden opportunity, and being in need of a southern support flank, begins negotiations in around 1865.
In them, the two make deals on spheres of influence. Belgium shall be aknowledged as French sphere, and Napoleon III. will be allowed to annex Luxmbourg with German support. In Italy, Nice, Aosta valley and upper Savoy will become part of France, while the rest of Sardinia, the other smaller states such as Tuscany and Austrian Lombardy will form a North Italian federation, possibly to be lead and joined by the Pope, and under French influence. In exchange, Napoleon will agree with a unified Germany under Prussia, as long as no Greater Garmany ideas are tried. Details here might be different, but essentially the two would be trying to find a way so that the French gain enough to not be totally outstrenght by the united German state.
A war occurs and the new allies win. Napoleon perhaps makes a few ambitious statements towards Baden and Bavaria, to help them along in joining Germany. Britain is extremely unhappy with the idea of the balance of power in Benelux being so changed, deffinetly trying to keep French hands off Belgium, and might well decide that an alliance with the now weaker Austria is neede to counter this new power block, ironnically somewhat recreating the alliance from the war of Austrian succession. With this new alliance, the French and Germans decide that together they are much safer from such an alliance attempting to undue their gains, and formalize their own alliance.
Such an alliance would certainly have many possible problems ahead of it (question of Alsace-Lorraine, the Spanish succession and so on), but if there is a big enough outside threat, it could in theory last for quite some time.
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Alsace-Lorraine was not an issue between the two countries before 1871. Prussia had never claimed French territory up to then. It became an issue as a result of the war, when Bismarck decided to annex that territory to create a buffer.
The Spanish succession was a point of contention for a time OTL but the Prussians ultimately withdrew their candidacy. Napoléon III's lingering frustration over not being allowed to annex Luxembourg prompted him to act more antagonistically than he would have otherwise.
With the suddenly unified Germany, based upon the idea of unification of German language speaking lands, the idea that German speaking Alsace should become part of Germany might well gain traction, and be source of issues. Though it depends on how well the relations between the two states develop.
As for Spain, I do agree that the likelyhood of the Prussian candidacy crisis is much lower. Perhaps, it might be Britain instead, who is trying to prevent Spain becoming part of German sphere of influence.
These were admitadly more of an examples of possible issues. There is also the question of how the future leadership (looking at you Willhelm), might handle the alliance. What I wanted to say, is that the alliance between the two is likely to face some issues, but has a good chance of staying together for some time.
An interesting variable here would be Russia.
The German Empire did not seem too interested in annexing Luxembourg or the German-speaking Swiss cantons. I’m not sure that Alsace would be much different. In any event, I don’t think it would be important enough to spoil relations between the two states if they are good otherwise.
I mentioned this in another thread recently, but what if France loses Alsace-Lorraine during the Congress of Vienna, and the area is turned into an independent state with a German prince in charge? The reasoning of the allied powers would be similar to that of the Germans’ when they annexed the region in 1871 IOTL, namely to create a buffer between them and France. So when Germany eventually unifies later in the century (preferably without a war with France beforehand), A-L joins the empire as a German state that has been separate from France for over half a century already, instead of being taken from a recently defeated France.
The Franco-Prussian war should also be avoided if possible, since German unification on the back of a defeated France isn’t exactly conducive to good relations between the two countries. This might be a good way to avoid it:
So without the issue of A-L or a recent war to poison relations between France and Germany, an alliance between them is certainly possible. Britain would probably be quite concerned, considering we’re talking about an alliance between the second- and third biggest naval powers of the time. In fact, if France and Germany are on friendly terms with each other, then it’s quite possible that both countries can afford to invest even more in their navies, with somewhat lower spending on their armies (since they aren’t concerned with attacking each other).
Would this lead to closer Anglo-Russian cooperation? Maybe, but Britain and Russia have divergent interests too, and there isn’t really anything that France or Germany have that Russia wants – most of Russia’s interests concern the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire. Then again, Britain was willing to sacrifice the Ottomans and grant Russia access to the Dardanelles during WW1, so it’s possible that Britain agrees to something similar in a scenario where France and German are allies.
The Franco-Prussian war should also be avoided if possible, since German unification on the back of a defeated France isn’t exactly conducive to good relations between the two countries. This might be a good way to avoid it:
So without the issue of A-L or a recent war to poison relations between France and Germany, an alliance between them is certainly possible. Britain would probably be quite concerned, considering we’re talking about an alliance between the second- and third biggest naval powers of the time. In fact, if France and Germany are on friendly terms with each other, then it’s quite possible that both countries can afford to invest even more in their navies, with somewhat lower spending on their armies (since they aren’t concerned with attacking each other).
Would this lead to closer Anglo-Russian cooperation? Maybe, but Britain and Russia have divergent interests too, and there isn’t really anything that France or Germany have that Russia wants – most of Russia’s interests concern the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire. Then again, Britain was willing to sacrifice the Ottomans and grant Russia access to the Dardanelles during WW1, so it’s possible that Britain agrees to something similar in a scenario where France and German are allies.
Or perhaps to have a more balanced unified Germany and France, France keeps the Rhine Border & Austrian Netherlands after alt Napoleonic Wars—while later on Prussia unified Germany includes Austria.
Wilhelm II almost abdicated OTL. Without Bismarck I suspect he would. Or if he tries to tough it out perhaps he fails within a couple years and abdicates anyway, lacking a Chancellor with Bismarck’s skills.
Is anybody willing to volunteer to map this scenario?
The German public will not tolerate a French alliance for long unless you have a POD before this:
en.wikipedia.org
Thirty Years' War - Wikipedia
The public matters roughly zero, unless you think they’d mount a full scale revolution to prevent an allianceThe German public will not tolerate a French alliance for long unless you have a POD before this:
Thirty Years' War - Wikipedia
Despite Frederick the Great being an untrustworthy shit the French still allied with Prussia throughout the War of Austrian Succession for instance.
The public matters if you want your troops to have morale.
What you mention was shortlived.
France was allied with the Protestant German states (including Prussia) in that war. Their main enemy at the time was the Habsburgs (which nevertheless did not prevent Prussia/Germany from allying with Austria later on).The German public will not tolerate a French alliance for long unless you have a POD before this:
Thirty Years' War - Wikipedia
Depending on how the alt version of the Seven Years War plays out there might not be a Napoleon.
Why? Did the Hundred Year war prevent an alliance between France and Britain?The German public will not tolerate a French alliance for long unless you have a POD before this:
Thirty Years' War - Wikipedia