AHC/WI: Alfred von Schlieffen Remains CGGS Until WW1?

In August 1905 Schlieffen was kicked by a companion's horse, making him 'incapable of battle'. During his time off, now at the age of 72, he started planning his retirement. His successor was yet undetermined.

According to Wikipedia (please let me know if there are better sources on Schlieffen and how he died, retired, etc.), the aforementioned incident ultimately led to Schlieffen's retirement.

What if Schlieffen avoids this incident? Could he remain Chief of the GGS until WW1, and ultimately implement a Schlieffen Plan where Germany remains on the defensive on both fronts and conducts offensive operations only within the context of counter-attacks?

Alternatively, could he secure a successor to the Chief of the GGS who would implement policies similar to the aforementioned?

How would a WW1 with Germany on the defensive on both fronts play out?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
1) The French and Russians also stand on the defensive until the Russians complete their mobilization Britain probably stays neutral

2) The French remain on the defensive while the Russians concentrate on the Austrians. Maybe make some probing attacks to keep the Germans pinned down

3) The Russians obliterate the Austrians while any German offensive from East Prussia is defeated by the horrible roads. The passes are secured

4) The Germans abandon Prussia to concentrate on defending Silesia

5) Light Russian forces occupy Prussia east of the Vistula. Meanwhile the main Russian army penetrates the Carpathian Mountains exposing the Hungarian plain

6) The Romanians and the Italians pounce to get the easy pickings. Austria surrenders by December 1914. The partition leaves the Dual monarchy dismembered with the choice Real Estate in Russian hands- Galicia, the Passes and Hungary. The Dual Alliance is broken

7) Russia offers Germany a peace at the expense of Britain. The Germans give France Alsace and Lorraine back, the Russians give the Germans Prussia back and allows some compensation from the Austrian Germanic lands.

8) The Germans and the French join Russia in a Bjorko style grand Continental alliance (Italy is also offered membership). The British Empire is dismantled and partitioned. Russia also gets Persia and Afghanistan. Japan is made a Russian possession- how she suffers is up to the Tsar

A rough outline
 

BooNZ

Banned
1) The French and Russians also stand on the defensive until the Russians complete their mobilization Britain probably stays neutral

2) The French remain on the defensive while the Russians concentrate on the Austrians. Maybe make some probing attacks to keep the Germans pinned down

3) The Russians obliterate the Austrians while any German offensive from East Prussia is defeated by the horrible roads. The passes are secured

4) The Germans abandon Prussia to concentrate on defending Silesia

5) Light Russian forces occupy Prussia east of the Vistula. Meanwhile the main Russian army penetrates the Carpathian Mountains exposing the Hungarian plain

6) The Romanians and the Italians pounce to get the easy pickings. Austria surrenders by December 1914. The partition leaves the Dual monarchy dismembered with the choice Real Estate in Russian hands- Galicia, the Passes and Hungary. The Dual Alliance is broken

7) Russia offers Germany a peace at the expense of Britain. The Germans give France Alsace and Lorraine back, the Russians give the Germans Prussia back and allows some compensation from the Austrian Germanic lands.

8) The Germans and the French join Russia in a Bjorko style grand Continental alliance (Italy is also offered membership). The British Empire is dismantled and partitioned. Russia also gets Persia and Afghanistan. Japan is made a Russian possession- how she suffers is up to the Tsar

A rough outline

very rough :rolleyes:
 
Schlieffen died of old age in early 1913. - The Schlieffen Operation was anything but defensive, and couldn't be.

Staying on the defensive meant one lost control over the duration of the war; the enemies were free in their choice where and when to attack.
A long war scenario was unacceptable not only to the German military, but also to the politicians. The war had to be short; and for that reason Germany had to attack.

Had they known (in advance) that the "Campaign of 1914" would last until Christmas 1918, none of them would have risked war.
 
Indeed. I would be very interested to see why you regard a surviving Schlieffen as acting defensively on all fronts.

However, one thing seems to be true: only Schlieffen himself could revoke the Schlieffen-plan. Moltke the Younger adapted it in order to keep it a little more utopian, but was not in the position to abandon it.
BUT: Schlieffen OTL didn't see his plan as a folly even in retirement. I don't see anything happening in 1913/14 to give him an epiphany (as the analysis of the Russo-Japanese war didn't change doctrine anywhere sufficiently in order to prepare properly for what was to come).

But....IF....

Remember, Germany goes to war in order to support Austria. Even if an assessment of the situation would assume that France couldn't get vanquished fast, then Germany would mobilize more in the East and do what Austria-Hungary always asked for: go on a combined offensive into Congress-Poland.

Having gone through the developments of OTL 1914 last year, I heavily assume that a German 50-50 deployment would have led to good chances that the tides of war in the East would be turned. Russian mobilization would become a turmoil while Congress-Poland would be taken over, assuming that the heavy artillery which ploughed over the Belgian fortresses in OTL would be available (albeit with delays due to the railroad gauge) even Russia's key fortresses in the area wouldn't stand for long.

The k.k. army wouldn't get dismembered (as much) in the process and the frontlines in the East would be a lot shorter in late 1914.
On the other hand, even against only four German armies, France would not conquer Alsace-Lorraince....and suffer terribly trying, suffer more terribly if, not forced to abandon XVII due to Schlieffen, trying again and again.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Hornla makes sense

The Schlieffen plan was logistically impressive but impossible (despite the Entente worst efforts) and almost certainly diplomatic suicide. Any POD that trashes that 'plan' does Imperial Germany one huge favour.
 
Hornla makes sense

The Schlieffen plan was logistically impressive but impossible (despite the Entente worst efforts) and almost certainly diplomatic suicide. Any POD that trashes that 'plan' does Imperial Germany one huge favour.

Thank you. The best outcome would be for Britain to broker a peace during wintertime; if the POD delays their entry into the war for long enough.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Hornla makes sense

The Schlieffen plan was logistically impressive but impossible (despite the Entente worst efforts) and almost certainly diplomatic suicide. Any POD that trashes that 'plan' does Imperial Germany one huge favour.

As bad as the Slieffen plan is, the Germans stick with it because the alternatives are even worse-

First, there is no evidence whatsoever to support the contention that Belgium is the cause for British intervention. Grey, Churchill and the rest of the liberal interventionists as well as the Tories are concerned only with British security and that demands backing Russia and France.

Only a direct act of aggression by the French and the Russians might be enough to upset that calculation

Second, the Schefflien plan does largely succeed in its prime objective- the removal of the French threat. While France remains in the field, her heavy industry is lost and her army crippled. It buys time to deal with Russia

It also pushes the French far from the German border Any respectable penetration of the Rhineland will bring an end to the German war effort in a matter of months. The iron mines, just 15 kilometers from the border, provide 85% of her iron ore. Without them, she is done in six months at most

Third, any strategy that allows the Russians to complete their mobilization will be fatal. An attack East is not going to produce decisive results. Russia can easily afford to lose Poland- which is the best that can be accomplished.

Fourth, the early German advances in the East aren't much to write home about. The logistical issues alone pretty much doom the effort. Its not until spring with the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive that any progress is made. Even that is unlikely without the heavy Russian losses in the various East Prussian offensives
 
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