@Beausoleil You are right on most counts and I freely admit that my knowledge of theology is a bit sketchy and I was not being precise in my earlier comment.
I didn't mean to say that it would be easy or possible for Catholicism and Lutheranism to find some sort of common ground, my point is that it could be possible (although unlikely, I admit it) to have a less radical reform movement develop inside the Church which could take at least some of the steam away from otl's Protestantism. About sacraments, while they were at this point rather well established already, I was under the assumption that their number and precise meaning were only codified canonically at the Council of Trento, but I might be wrong.
I think that different interpretations could still be given to some sacraments, especially marriage, confirmation and penitence (I mean earlier and stricter rules about indulgences).
But probably that would not qualify as a "reformed" Church in the sense that the OP wanted, so I am afraid I am getting a bit off topic.
Realistically, you could see Bohemia, Hungary, Poland, the Baltics and more of the Netherlands swing to the Protestants, as well as more german states, while I don't see Protestants becoming the majority in France (but if the edict of Nantes is not revoked they could stay as a sizeable minority to the present day).