AHC/WI: 1930s Pacific War

Delta Force

Banned
While the civilian governments of Imperial Japan wanted to maintain good relations with the British Empire and United States, the far-right groups that kept launching coup attempts throughout the 1930s were opposed to both countries. The May 15 Incident of 1932 even called for the assassination of Charlie Chaplin, hoping that it would trigger war with the United States and spark a crisis that would see the power of the existing economic and political elite reduced and that of the Emperor increased. More realistically it would have increased the power of those controlling the Emperor, as Hirohito wasn't supportive of the attempts, at least at the time.

Assuming that one of these coup attempts somehow progressed to the point of creating a major international incident or even a successful military coup, how likely is it for an earlier Pacific War to break out? Would Imperial Japan have been in a stronger position since it would be fighting a single front war (Imperial Japan was only active in Manchuria in the early 1930s) with the technology it had always planned and trained for? Would fighting in the depths of the Great Depression work to Japan's advantage, since it historically recovered by the early 1930s?
 
It'd probably be a curb-stomp battle, with China and/or the USSR joining in to get some Japanese lebensraum. However, this may actually mean that the Great Depression ends earlier since the Arms Industry has an explosion of activity.
 
The May 15 Incident of 1932 even called for the assassination of Charlie Chaplin, hoping that it would trigger war with the United States and spark a crisis that would see the power of the existing economic and political elite reduced and that of the Emperor increased.

I ... what? They were plotting to assassinate Chaplin!? As dysfunctional as prewar Japanese politics was, what with junior officers regularly assassinating the Prime Minister, I had no idea this level of insanity was ever reached. This plan soars right over the line separating "nefarious" and "comical," to the point that it sounds like a Marx Brothers plot.

In any case, the obvious problem facing a Japanese strike in 1932 is the lack of a European front to distract the Americans, which I don't think the absence of a Chinese theater really cancels out. More troops are useless for offensive operations in the Pacific without adequate transports and escorts, and defensively they could only have slowed the US down. With serious gaps in the IJN ( no heavy cruisers beyond the Takaos, no fleet carriers beyond Akagi and Kaga, incomplete Kongo modernizations), I see little chance for Japan to succeed, especially since the USN's impressive battleship collection would be better suited for immediate combat than OTL.
 
I don't think murdering Chaplin would have actually sparked a war, so there is that...

However, the interesting thing about an early 1930s war is that it would not be a total war that ends in unconditional surrender, like WWII. It would likely be a purely naval war, with maybe some fighting on the Philippine Islands. So, there would be some big naval battles, with losses on both sides, and it likely ends with Imperial Japan asking for terms after much of the IJN is lost. What those terms would be depends heavily on the length of the war and how decisive the victory was, but there is no chance of, for example, the US occupying the Home Islands, or even forcing Japan to give up her core colonial holdings. The peace terms would be, at most, that Japan withdraws from Manchuria, maybe agrees to some new limits on the size of her navy, maybe agrees npt to fortify some Pacific Islands, or gives up some. It depends on not just the length and intensity of the fighting, but on what is seen as the proximate cause of the war.

Ironically, after the war, Imperial Japan would go on as before, except the Militarists would be publicly discredited for forcing Japan into a stupid war and then losing it.
 

Delta Force

Banned
The Imperial Japanese Navy would have relative advantage in some areas though. The Kongo class battlecruisers are much faster than the battleships of the United States Navy, and the Special Type destroyers and Long Lance torpedo would be brand new. Also, the IJN trained and prepared for a visual range Jutland type engagement fought with surface gunnery and torpedoes, so the lack of radar and less developed naval aviation attack capabilities would help.
 
Ever read the Great Pacific War? With any luck the US will realize the American strategy from the book is correct and go with it.

Carrier development will be quite interesting though during this period.
 
The Panay incident, if militarists caused the Japanese reaction to be flipping the bird at the US, instead of pretending to apologize, could have been a casus belli.

The US would have had a heck of a job projecting power that far out, so the Japanese might well win the first couple of rounds (taking the Philippines?). However, I could easily see FDR using the excuse to build up the military massively, helping to pull the US out of the Depression.

Once the US gets going, it can out build the Japanese with one hand tied behind its back, and if the Brits and French help out, or even let the US use their Southeast Asian bases, the Japanese will be whipped badly, eventually.

However, as someone else pointed out, they probably keep Manchuria and Taiwan. They may lose most of their navy, and have stronger limits on what they can build. IF they are in China (outside of Manchuria), which they'd have to be with a Panay incident start, then they'll have to pull out of China, too, IMO.

If the losses are principally to the Navy, it might end up strengthening the Army (which was the crazier branch), and MIGHT set the stage for a second round. OTOH, they won't be able to delude themselves that the US was an effete cowardly nation, the way they did in WWII, iOTL.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Would IJN the try to launch a surprise attack to start the war, perhaps using destroyers to torpedo anchored ships?
 
Top