AHC White Crimea and/or White Siberia? A different result of Russian Civil War.

Insider

Banned
Well Siberia was white for half of each year, even under Reds...:rolleyes:

Would it be possible that the Bolsheviks would find themselves too spent to continue large scale warfare and ask for peace?
Which of these two would be more probable?
How would such arrangement influence recognition of Russia on international stage?
What would status of Tsar (whoever he or she may be) in the rump state?
How much it weakens Red Russia?
How long such arrangement can continue?
 
Siberia is potentially possible, although very very unlikely. Crimea, not really unless occupied by a foreign power (too small and too close main Russian centers). Even Siberia would need a major power supporting it in a big way.
 

Insider

Banned
Siberia is potentially possible, although very very unlikely. Crimea, not really unless occupied by a foreign power (too small and too close main Russian centers). Even Siberia would need a major power supporting it in a big way.
Could surviving Ukraine State act as a necessary bulkwark for independent Crimea? I take that sea power wasn't exactly a strong point of the Red forces at the point, althrough straits that separate peninsula from mainland arent so wide either, so perhaps some homegrown red army general would come up with a briliant plan akin to Seelowe... Not sure whatever Whites would have enough money for upkeep of their ships for long, but perhaps for long enough.

I wonder what would be status of indigenous populace (Tatars in Crimea, Yakuts and Nenets in Siberia) in that arrangement.
 
See Vassily Aksyonov's novel *The Island of Crimea* for the Crimea as a kind of Russian "Taiwan."

Ilya Somin (in *Stillborn Crusade: The Tragic Failure of Western Intervention in the Russian Civil War 1918-1920*) has suggested that there was a way to make an Aksyonov-like scenario a reality, even though the Crimea is a peninsula rather than an island. He points out that the Crimean peninsula is connected to the mainland only by two narrow strips of land that could easily be dominated by naval gunfire. "In fact, British naval units in the Black Sea had covered the inital White evacuation to the Crimea and prevented Red forces from intervening. They continued to give fire support to Wrangel's forces in the first few months of his command." (p. 187) Lloyd George, however, was determined to come to an agreement with the Bolsheviks and decided to end all support for Wrangel, despite Churchill's urgings. In June 1920 the British naval commander in the Black Sea was warned that "British Naval forces are to afford no, repeat no, support to Wrangel in offence or defence."

Somin thinks that it was well within the power of the British fleet to save the Crimean peninsula for the Whites, even after Britain had written off the rest of Russia. Of course that Britain would actually choose to do so seems pretty implausible, given the half-hearted nature of Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War (Somin is one of the few authors to regret the half-heartedness rather than the intervention). OTOH, it must have seemed pretty implausible in 1949 that the US, having refused to commit troops to prevent the Communists from taking over the Chinese mainland, would within a year be protecting Taiwan and would a few years later be on the verge of war with the PRC over a couple of tiny islands less than ten miles from the Chinese coast named Quemoy and Matsu...


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This is an old soc.history.what-if post of mine; for some posts casting doubt on whether the idea was practical, see https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/1Cmxn8D-Yug/vHPAzVS8-o4J and https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/1Cmxn8D-Yug/MoL3T7c0Lm4J Oh, well...
 
See Vassily Aksyonov's novel *The Island of Crimea* for the Crimea as a kind of Russian "Taiwan."

Ilya Somin (in *Stillborn Crusade: The Tragic Failure of Western Intervention in the Russian Civil War 1918-1920*) has suggested that there was a way to make an Aksyonov-like scenario a reality, even though the Crimea is a peninsula rather than an island. He points out that the Crimean peninsula is connected to the mainland only by two narrow strips of land that could easily be dominated by naval gunfire. "In fact, British naval units in the Black Sea had covered the inital White evacuation to the Crimea and prevented Red forces from intervening. They continued to give fire support to Wrangel's forces in the first few months of his command." (p. 187) Lloyd George, however, was determined to come to an agreement with the Bolsheviks and decided to end all support for Wrangel, despite Churchill's urgings. In June 1920 the British naval commander in the Black Sea was warned that "British Naval forces are to afford no, repeat no, support to Wrangel in offence or defence."

Somin thinks that it was well within the power of the British fleet to save the Crimean peninsula for the Whites, even after Britain had written off the rest of Russia. Of course that Britain would actually choose to do so seems pretty implausible, given the half-hearted nature of Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War (Somin is one of the few authors to regret the half-heartedness rather than the intervention). OTOH, it must have seemed pretty implausible in 1949 that the US, having refused to commit troops to prevent the Communists from taking over the Chinese mainland, would within a year be protecting Taiwan and would a few years later be on the verge of war with the PRC over a couple of tiny islands less than ten miles from the Chinese coast named Quemoy and Matsu...


***

This is an old soc.history.what-if post of mine; for some posts casting doubt on whether the idea was practical, see https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/1Cmxn8D-Yug/vHPAzVS8-o4J and https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/1Cmxn8D-Yug/MoL3T7c0Lm4J Oh, well...

Fascinating, "Stillborn Crusade" sounds like excellent reading.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-lis...ing_new_olp_sr?ie=UTF8&condition=new&qid=&sr=
Too bad it's going for over $500 online..
 
To achieve this for Siberia isn't trivial.

By way of background, Siberia's best troops were those of the Czech Legion, recruited from POWs who had seized the Trans-Siberian railway en route to being repatriated via Vladivostok and played a major role in clearing Siberia of Red forces. They were effective, but couldn't be expected to stay forever. Their leadership had been on good terms with the Komuch government in Samara, but were somewhat less enthralled with its ultimate successor, Admiral Kolchak, whose base was further East. Kolchak also faced a major problem because much of Siberia East of Lake Baikal was ruled by Ataman Semenov and his forces. Semenov was basically a bandit (he also hated Kolchak, with some reason) and his forces looted vast quantities of supplies intended for Kolchak's armies. Under the circumstances, it's not surprising that Kolchak tried for a fast victory by an all-out attack in early 1919, and was in trouble when it failed.

The situation probably isn't insoluble. There were significant Japanese forces in the Far East of the province, which were not used effectively against the Bolsheviks. If they had removed Semenov, or at least controlled his behavior, Kolchak might have been able to sustain his campaign more successfully. Would the Bolsheviks reach a truce with him? Maybe -- they faced a hard choice later in 1919 at the height of the Whites advance from the South under Denikin. The Bolsheviks made a good call by electing to continue their campaign against Kolchak until he was defeated. It's very plausible that they would have stopped so they could switch their forces to the South.
 

Insider

Banned
Crimea also possesses several natural gas fields both onshore and offshore, which were starting to be drilled by western oil and gas companies before annexation.[67][68] The inland fields are located in Chornomorske and Dzhankoy, while offshore fields are located in the western coast in the Black Sea and in the northeastern coast in the Azov Sea:[69]
The republic also possesses two oil fields: one onshore, the Serebryankse oil field in Rozdolne, and one offshore, the Subbotina oil field in the Black Sea.

Wiki seemes to have other opinion on "no resources". Prehaps not a next Saudi Arabia, but something to begin with. Also the population levels weren't exactly stellar in OTL. Soviets in their first census counted 713k. Even with influx of white supporters I hardly see this figure could exceed two millions.

But aside this nitpiking, thanks for comprehensive scenarios.
 
The main problem with this is how, if one side is weak enough to accept a partition of Russia and a "frozen" civil war (as the Reds sometimes really were) - that means the other side will be feeling confident enough to refuse any such suggestion. That applies for Siberia, at least. Crimea would be more of a Taiwan, something that the Whites cling to out of desperation and that the Reds never officially recognize.

I don't think there would be a Tsar anywhere. He'd be more easily installed in Crimea than in Siberia, but it's probably not going to happen either way. Monarchism wasn't exactly dead in Russia by 1918, but it had a very narrow appeal. The main white governments knew this and followed a centrist course - the "far right" and genuine monarchists were typically sidelined or ignored.
 
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