AHC: White Boers form a nation after 1994

How? Why? Under what circumstances?

So a sort of Yugoslav-esqe balkanization after Nelson Mandela is elected I assune

Yeah..don't see it.
There was a sizable number within the outgoing state beauracracy that opposed the end of apartheid but not enough to cause a break-away state to form in case of a revolution
 
The formation of a lasting white state would have to rely on the crippling of the ability of South African blacks to militaryily crush the nascent state. How this happens, I don't want to think about.
 
Where could they expect to carve out a niche as the local majority without some sort of ethnic cleansing action? And if they resort to that, then the blacks would fight back, and they'd have been better off trying to keep apartheid going.
 
They could probably carve something out in Northern Cape without too many blacks for their liking. Of course, if they couldn't cleanse whatever area they wanted of blacks, they'd probably be forced to basically build their own new country in the middle of nowhere, although that might not be an issue to the Boers. If they put up enough of a fuss, the black government would probably be able to get a few thousand blacks and coloureds to move off whatever farmland the Boers wanted if it meant staying in power. The only problem with the Northern Cape is that the only land worth having is the Orange valley near Upington, where most of the province's population is, and the diamond mines around Kimberly, and there's no way the government's giving that up.

If there is a violent Balkanization that happens, the Boers would probably be able to expel the black population on the Highveld. Response to any foreign intervention attempts would likely be violent after the disaster that happened in Rhodesia, which the Boers regard as a result of foreign meddling.
 
I personally doubt how effective the blacks would be in stopping the Boers from forming their own state, remember the Boers were the most powerful group in SA and held most of the wealth, land, trained military personnel, and businesspeople. Even with the assistance of Communist and sympathetic European nations, they lack any sort of leadership or military capabilities and would fall back on numbers which is in no way a guarantee of victory, especially when the enemy holds all the cards. The Boers would create their new state wherever they wanted in SA and although blacks could cause problems, they would be forced out of wherever the Boers decide to settle.

I honestly believe too, that after months of warfare and black mob violence against whites in the streets, most whites would have no sympathy left and support for an all white state would be very strong, even among English or liberal whites that don't move elsewhere. Despite sanctions in the post Cold War world they could potentially thrive too, sanction-busting measures already developed previously and new relations with Russia and East Asian nations that don't really care about human rights would keep them afloat.
 
Last edited:
WI White-dominated Capetown split off as its own separate city-state?
....... similar to Hong Kong or Singapore or a dozen tiny colonies along the coast of Africa.
WI Modern factories relocate to the white enclave around Capetown.
WI The bulk of import-export go through the port of

As for the military ..... how big were OTL air bases, naval dockyards and army barracks?
How many white-led SAAF squadrons would opt to defend the new city-state.
How many South African navy vessels would pledge to defend the new Boerland?
 
I dont see this really happening but maybe some people in the 1980s, seeing the writing on the wall for apartheid take the "White Tribe" idea and create a Boer bantustan? Come majority rule they wheel out a nuke (yeah i know) and declare UDI. Mandela is willing to believe they'll use it and let's them go at least unofficially. How long such country lasts and who the hell with trade with is another issue...
 
I honestly believe too, that after months of warfare and black mob violence against whites in the streets and large scale rapes of white women and girls...

Why the hell is this in your post???
I see no reason for it unless theres an assumption that Africans will naturally do this in a balkanization scenario.
 
Last edited:
Why the hell is this this in your post???
I see no reason for it unless there an assumption that Africans will naturally do this in a balkanization scenario.

It's not meant to be racist, I'm just basing it off of events that happened in a small scale after the fall of apartheid and the social strife afterwards, which in a civil war scenario like this would be amplified and become more commonplace due to an even greater desire for reprisals against whites. Since it bothers you I edited the post.
 
It's not meant to be racist, I'm just basing it off of events that happened in a small scale after the fall of apartheid and the social strife afterwards, which in a civil war scenario like this would be amplified and become more commonplace due to an even greater desire for reprisals against whites. Since it bothers you I edited the post.

What incidents like this happened in OTL?
 
Well, IIRC there had long been a discussion of "total apartheid" in ASA in which the races truly separated and all formed their own distinct nations. Also, I recall that the Zulu for awhile wanted their own independent enclave free of both the ANC majority and the white minority.

I don't see this as ASB at all had de Klerk decided to go in a slightly different direction in ending apartheid.
 
The idea actually exists.

1000px-Volkstaat%E2%80%93VF.svg.png


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkstaat
 
As far as I know, the Boer population is not concentrated in an area where they are the majority. They are spread out in several regions, and they are a minority in all of them. This makes it very hard for them to split off on their own and be recognized as their own state.

They'd need a POD which causes them to congregate in an area of South Africa where blacks and coloureds (and other whites as well) do not frustrate their majoritarian status, and as part of the negotiations to turn over the government to Mandela (or Mandela-surrogate depending on the POD) they get agreement to split off on their own so that the international community would not continue their sanctions against the new state.
 
They could make a deal with the coloreds. They had already given them a partial vote. I understand that the whites with the coloreds had a majority in the West Cape
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I thought the increase in sexual assault and rape after the fall of apartheid was well known?
You know the most important thing to do when you find yourself in a hole?

Stop digging.

Either produce irrefutable documentation on this issue or cease and desist.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Well isn't that what happened in the classic Balkanization example of Yugoslavia?



It is common knowledge. Now it has been suggested that the explosion post-Apartheid was largely the result of black women feeling more confident in coming forward after 1994, but still, that doesn't change the fact that rape was very common in late 1990s South Africa, amongst the worst in the world - although there are some serious issues with the available statistics, there is no disagreement that it was extremely high throughout the 1990s.

In the event of the collapse of the state such violence shall inevitably become worse than OTL - I don't really see any reason why the various sides wouldn't engage in such behaviours in South Africa that OTL occurred in Yugoslavia. Naturally when it happens to Afrikaners they shall be embittered by it, not that it would stop them from doing the same thing.

It would inevitably be an important part of Afrikaner propaganda even before it started happening.
That was not what he said and you know it. He was VERY specific regarding the race of the alleged victims AND of the assailants.

Unless you wish to get caught up in what has the potential to be an unfortunate exchange, I would recommend that you let him defend his own position, if he can.
 
You know the most important thing to do when you find yourself in a hole?

Stop digging.

Either produce irrefutable documentation on this issue or cease and desist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_violence_in_South_Africa
https://africacheck.org/factsheets/guide-rape-statistics-in-south-africa/

South Africa has some of the highest rates of sexual assault on the planet as it is, civil war conditions would likely make things worse.

That was not what he said and you know it. He was VERY specific regarding the race of the alleged victims AND of the assailants.

Unless you wish to get caught up in what has the potential to be an unfortunate exchange, I would recommend that you let him defend his own position, if he can.

So it was poorly worded I'm sorry but don't pretend that in a civil war scenario rapes and other such crimes wouldn't happen, and it wouldn't be limited to on side or the other. Racial tensions would be at a boiling point especially in an all-out civil war and such actions would be common to both sides, and they would subsequently use it as propaganda against the other.
 
Top