Hmmm... tough.
How about Things go worse for the ussr, maybe no lend lease, and the germans get to baku. Which would both have to the result of some earlier pod.
Soviets push the germans out of the caucasus, but the germans destroy the infrastructure on retreating.
A couple of kursk like battles, and germany and the soviets agree to a truce. The soviets pull out of the war. Partly because stalin no longer believes the WAllies ,,second front,, promises.
Overlord happens more less on scedule, but faces much tougher opposition. By may 1945, the wallies have liberated much of france, but port facilities etc, are sadly lacking. The us had earlier decided on a 99 division army, and clearly thats not enough, so the arny has to be built up.
Finally, in august, two abombs burst over japan, and japan surrenders. The wallies cross the rhine.
Stalin decides hed better jump back into the fight and moves into romania, to cut off german oil, and poland.
October, atomic fire rains on three german cities, then a week later, three more. A coup ousts the nazis and a military junta surrenders to the wallies, rushing allied forces into poland.
Hows that?