AHC: Weaken the US before WW1

Well, I'm thinking of a CP-wank TL with a weaker US not joining the war. Is there a possible POD to weaken the US significantly from 1861 to 1917 without completely changing WW1 as we know?
 
Well, I'm thinking of a CP-wank TL with a weaker US not joining the war. Is there a possible POD to weaken the US significantly from 1861 to 1917 without completely changing WW1 as we know?

In military terms it would be difficult to make the US much weaker: the USN is very unbalanced in terms of support for the battle fleet and the Army is very small and short on artillery.
 
In military terms it would be difficult to make the US much weaker: the USN is very unbalanced in terms of support for the battle fleet and the Army is very small and short on artillery.

What about their industrial capacity? As long as it remains strong, the military can be improved over time. If possible, I would like them to loose the potentials to become a superpower.
 

Redbeard

Banned
A 2nd Civil War would be significant, especially if it means USA splitting up, but the general exhaustion could also be significant.
 
Guerilla war in Mexico and open rebellions in the Philippines

My understanding is that in the south western states that were previously Mexican states there were several hundred thousand Mexicans til they were deported in the 30's. Ramp up Mexican nationalism due to US racism towards this significant minority that leads to guerilla warfare in California, New Mexico and Arizona that keeps the Army occupied.
 
A 2nd Civil War would be significant, especially if it means USA splitting up, but the general exhaustion could also be significant.

With regard to others' posts, is Mexican rebellion enough to trigger a 2nd civil war and drag the US down?

Guerilla war in Mexico and open rebellions in the Philippines

Didn't the US do a good job suppressing the Philippines in OTL?
 
Have the US fall into a Depression in 1914:

Economist William L. Silber argues in When Washington Shut Down Wall Street: The Great Financial Crisis of 1914 and the Origins of America's Monetary Supremacy (2008) that the United States came very close to having a major financial panic in 1914, as a consequence of the outbreak of World War I. To quote William McAdoo's wikipedia page (which paraphrases Silber- this is how I discovered him):



McAdoo avoided this outcome by closing the New York Stock Exchange for four months, thereby preventing European creditors from liquidating their dollar-denominated assets into gold. Silber contends that the effects of McAdoo's bold actions were far reaching. Again from the wikipedia page:



Let's imagine that the NYSE had not been closed. How might the Panic of 1914 have played out? What specifically would the effects have been on World War One? Might this be a potential POD for a quick German victory on the western front?
 
How about an earlier and more devastating Spanish influenza out break among the Eastern Coast cities and other major cities in say 1910?
 

Redbeard

Banned
With regard to others' posts, is Mexican rebellion enough to trigger a 2nd civil war and drag the US down?....


I think we need some internal PoDs in USA. The obvious is a less reconciliatory line after the Civil War or a less decisive outcome of the war.


It is also my impression, that the US government in late 19th century was relatively weak and it would be a plausible PoD to have capitalism go even more berserk than in OTL (no anti-trust legislation etc.). I have only superficial knowledge about US history in that period, but at least I could imagine that in combination with some spirited socialist agitators in the right/wrong time and place we could see federal USA weakened by internal unrest or even revolution. The later clear animosity between USA and socialism wasn’t obvious then. USA was seen as the place you could seek freedom from the old oppressors in Europe, and if raging capitalism big capital now is the obvious limitation of common people’s freedom why not listen to a socialist agitator promising milk and honey? Nobody knows yet about how wrong those ideas can go.
 
If we're going with a "kitchen sink" approach to weakening the US at this time...

I really like the 1914 Depression idea. IOTL 1914 was a pretty good year for America. Not so much if they close the NYSE and people panic. Even if it doesn't turn into a full-scale depression, a recession or panic should do the trick.

Definitely get Mexico and the Philippines pissed off. Get the Army bogged down in other conflicts that are unrelated to the war in Europe.

Also, get the black folks mad. Race riots over an unfavorable court ruling should do it. Especially if it's organized and goes after industrial targets.

And then the Spanish flu would be th icing on that pile of shit for America, or what's left of it after all this happens.
 
Restricting immigration like the Chinese exclusion act did would significantly lower the U.S' population. A 1914 depression is a great idea too. Also if there is no Spanish American war, lets say due to a President William Jenning Bryan, the U.S military will be way weaker. The butterflies might be significant but it also likely means no Panama canal or great white fleet. Aka a far weaker U.S navy.
 
If we're going with a "kitchen sink" approach to weakening the US at this time...

I really like the 1914 Depression idea. IOTL 1914 was a pretty good year for America. Not so much if they close the NYSE and people panic. Even if it doesn't turn into a full-scale depression, a recession or panic should do the trick.

Definitely get Mexico and the Philippines pissed off. Get the Army bogged down in other conflicts that are unrelated to the war in Europe.

Also, get the black folks mad. Race riots over an unfavorable court ruling should do it. Especially if it's organized and goes after industrial targets.

And then the Spanish flu would be th icing on that pile of shit for America, or what's left of it after all this happens.

That should do it - how ever it has to be said that if any nation is going to bounce back all that much stronger for the experience in the 20C lets face it - its going to be the US of A ;)
 
That should do it - how ever it has to be said that if any nation is going to bounce back all that much stronger for the experience in the 20C lets face it - its going to be the US of A ;)

Given that they are perfectly geographically situated and can build up one hell of a navy, all it would take is a good shot at rebuilding the economy and a good reason to be ambitious nationally (territory grab) and they're good. Not to mention the US was anticipating war with Japan for some time anyway, so the US will be back.
 
I think we need some internal PoDs in USA. The obvious is a less reconciliatory line after the Civil War or a less decisive outcome of the war.


It is also my impression, that the US government in late 19th century was relatively weak and it would be a plausible PoD to have capitalism go even more berserk than in OTL (no anti-trust legislation etc.). I have only superficial knowledge about US history in that period, but at least I could imagine that in combination with some spirited socialist agitators in the right/wrong time and place we could see federal USA weakened by internal unrest or even revolution. The later clear animosity between USA and socialism wasn’t obvious then. USA was seen as the place you could seek freedom from the old oppressors in Europe, and if raging capitalism big capital now is the obvious limitation of common people’s freedom why not listen to a socialist agitator promising milk and honey? Nobody knows yet about how wrong those ideas can go.
Oh yes, the Guilded Age has many possibilities. The Brooks-Baxter war getting (more) out of hand, the Great Epizootic of 1872, the panic of '73 (first mass strikes in the USA), the burning of Boston and the establishment of the first communist government in the USA. (By striking workers in St. Louis, during the 'Great Upheaval'.
Plus copious other weirdness; http://dwaitas.proboards.com/thread/2951/scenario-seeds-gilded-1871-1881
 
Add in an agriculture calamity like corn-borers or Bol weavals or A Dust Bowl or a Potatoe Blight or wheat rust or a pest that infects tobacco plants.
 
OK, to expand on my previous post (tablet keyboard doesn't make for great detail) some possible divergence points, in chronological order, are:

1. In 1872 the effects of the horse 'flu outbreak was longer lasting and more widespread. Armound 97% of horses and mules are infected and 3% die.
Given the reliance on animal power the effect on travel and transport was enormous, and catastrophic. Huge backups in freight occurred all over the US and Canada; even canals (which employed horses to pull barges) and some railways (where horse transport delivered coal) were idle. A fire in Boston (the most destructive in the city’s history, destroying 26 hectares and killing at least thirty people) was exacerbated by the lack of horses to pull the fire-fighting appliances. The US Cavalry became infantry. The US government effectively shut down. Cities suffered shortages of everything from milk to coal, bread to beer and rubbish piled up in the streets.
The outbreak began in Ontario in early October and spread rapidly reaching Detroit on the 10th, New York and Boston on the 22nd, Chicago on the 23rd, Washington on the 28th, New Orleans on the 27th of November and Havana on the 7th of December.

2. On 09MAY1873 the Vienna Stock Exchange crashed, starting of the ‘Panic of ‘73’ and leading to what was known as the ‘Long Depression’, the worst period of economic disruption until the 1930s. But it could have been worse...
There were a wide array of factors behind the crash, the problems in Vienna were merely a symptom of a far wider malaise; the fall in silver prices, enormous share speculation, the opening of the Suez canal (which disrupted trade patterns), bank failures in the USA, the after-effects of the Franco-Prussian War, the Credit Mobilier fraud, Grant's deflationary monetary policy and general economic shifts all contributed to the troubles, which would last for years.
The effects are equally widespread, from the Land War in Ireland to the revival of colonialism, from the labour troubles in the USA (including the first nationwide strike, of railway workers) to improvements in industrial processes.

3. Then there is the 1872 elections in the US states of Arkansas and Louisiana (and to a lesser extent Alabama). All three states saw violence and vote fraud. In Alabama two rival state legislatures claimed to have been elected, and each sent it's own senator to Washington (in Ye Olde Days that's how US Senators were elected). The Republican controlled Senate seated the Republican legislature's candidate (almost certainly illegally). The situation was resolved by the threatened deployment of Federal troops.
In Arkansas and Louisiana things were far worse. In both states the elections for US President, Governor and state legislature were disputed, with violent clashes commonplace. In Louisiana two men claimed to have been elected governor (Kellogg and McEnery). After clashes, including the Colfax Massacre (a clash around the fortified county courthouse where many blacks had taken refuge) which left more than 150 dead, Grant deployed Federal troops and supported William Kellogg.
In Arkansas the situation became known the Brooks-Baxter war, and gradually escalated until 1874 with both sides (Elisha Baxter and Joseph Brooks) raising troops and fighting a low level civil war, in addition to racially motivated violence by former Confederates. The 'war' left 200-300 dead and the racial violence killed as many.


4. Next there's the Great Upheaval,otherwise the ‘Great Railroad Strike of 1877’, which began on 14 July 1877 in the West Virginia town of Martinsburg and lasted about six weeks. Rioting and civil unrest were widespread, mainly triggered by wage cuts, the general economic depression (see point 2 above) and the disputed election of 1876 (it's a bit of a theme running through the period).
Pitched battles were fought in several cities and towns, between strikers and police, vigilantes, private guards, state militia and Federal troops (though in several cases police and militia refused to fire on strikers). Hundreds were killed, many (if not most)of them unarmed.
Workers in St. Louis briefly established a Communist government before troops were deployed.


5. Finally there's another plague, Yellow Jack. The 1878 the Mississippi river valley outbreak of outbreak of Yellow Fever.
Tens of thousands of people fled the cities of New Orleans, Vicksburg, and Memphis, perhaps 120,000 were infected and about 20,000 died. Another outbreak in Memphis killed about 5,000 people. The plague devastated Mississippi, both socially and economically, with entire families killed and thousands fleeing. Quarantine regulations ended trade and travel. Some entire towns, for example Beechland, near Vicksburg, were abandoned completely, becoming ghost towns because of the epidemic.
Historically this was a serious outbreak, but relatively geographically limited in scope. What if it had spread further?

If you really want to screw the US, worsen all five of these events. For example;
1. A worse strain of horse 'flu that kills 30% of those infected and leaves the survivors weak for months.
2. A worse economic malaise.
3. Poorly handled Federal intervention with more clashes with local anti-Reconstruction elements triggering a low-level guerilla war across the former Confederacy.
4. Longer lasting and more violent labour clashes.
5. Widespread yellow fever epidemic.
 
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