AHC: Warsaw Pact without Soviet Union/Russia
- Thread starter Zuvarq
- Start date
MSZ
Banned
I'll bite that, though I'm pressing on the "at least two countries from the Warsaw Pact", not "Warsaw Pact continue to exist" itself - WP was a product of the USSR meant to control other states militaries and staffs - with the fall of the USSR, this construct doesn't have a reason to exist. But an alternate alliance of central european states excluding Russia and outside NATO - why not?
PoD would be Yeltsin dying in 1993 or somewhere along this time, with the military hard-heads coming back to power, pressing for restoring the USSR in a new form - eventually using the fact that Russian Army units were still stationed in Belarus and Ukraine to create some kind of "Russian Commonwealth" in the place of the OTL CIS as an actual confederation/federation. The fact that the post-Soviet collossus still stands, albeit badly damaged is enough to freak out the former satellites, as well as western Europe which backs out from plans to integrate central Europe with its structures (OTL even Clinton was opposed to expanding NATO, suggesting the "partnership for peace" instead, only bent to German pressures which didn't want to be the eastern frontier of NATO anymore). So the satellite states are in limbo, not allowed to join NATO/EU, not wanting for Russia to return. They thus concentrate on integrating themselves - CEFTA is given much more attention as the perspective of ever joining the western club is gone (they can't afford to wait until invited like Turkey). A mutual protection pact against Russia is thus formed instead of NATO guarantees - and the treaty creating it would be signed in Warsaw (as it would be the no.1 military power in the block, except maybe for Yugoslavia). To fulfill the OP, you might even not declare the former WP treaty as null and void, but just that it is "ammended" as a genuine alliance rather than a tool of domination. Thus it would be unofficially called the "Warsaw Pact", just aimed against the east, not west.
EDIT: I just checked, and the OP request is impossible - the Warsaw Pact was disbanded before the dissolution of the USSR.
PoD would be Yeltsin dying in 1993 or somewhere along this time, with the military hard-heads coming back to power, pressing for restoring the USSR in a new form - eventually using the fact that Russian Army units were still stationed in Belarus and Ukraine to create some kind of "Russian Commonwealth" in the place of the OTL CIS as an actual confederation/federation. The fact that the post-Soviet collossus still stands, albeit badly damaged is enough to freak out the former satellites, as well as western Europe which backs out from plans to integrate central Europe with its structures (OTL even Clinton was opposed to expanding NATO, suggesting the "partnership for peace" instead, only bent to German pressures which didn't want to be the eastern frontier of NATO anymore). So the satellite states are in limbo, not allowed to join NATO/EU, not wanting for Russia to return. They thus concentrate on integrating themselves - CEFTA is given much more attention as the perspective of ever joining the western club is gone (they can't afford to wait until invited like Turkey). A mutual protection pact against Russia is thus formed instead of NATO guarantees - and the treaty creating it would be signed in Warsaw (as it would be the no.1 military power in the block, except maybe for Yugoslavia). To fulfill the OP, you might even not declare the former WP treaty as null and void, but just that it is "ammended" as a genuine alliance rather than a tool of domination. Thus it would be unofficially called the "Warsaw Pact", just aimed against the east, not west.
EDIT: I just checked, and the OP request is impossible - the Warsaw Pact was disbanded before the dissolution of the USSR.
What if before Gorbachev agreed with Germany re-unification, US-USSR/Russia agreement is signed which will prohibit any country of former Warsaw pact to join NATO. Wasn't that promised to Gorbachev anyway? Poland and later Baltic states will want to secure themselves. Hungary may be interested too. So let say this 5 countries will in Warsaw negotiate defense pact. Poland and Hungary are member of V4 (Poland, Czech republic, Slovakia and Hungary). So let say Czech republic and Slovakia join later on. You can add Romania and Bulgaria few years later. All this countries had pretty decent arms industry and can manufacture almost everything for their army. Also, as a former WP members, their armament is pretty standardized. Except fighter/ bomber jets they can manufacture even jet aircraft (Aero for example). And this could be bought in Russia/ US/ Sweden.
MSZ
Banned
What if before Gorbachev agreed with Germany re-unification, US-USSR/Russia agreement is signed which will prohibit any country of former Warsaw pact to join NATO. Wasn't that promised to Gorbachev anyway? Poland and later Baltic states will want to secure themselves. Hungary may be interested too. So let say this 5 countries will in Warsaw negotiate defense pact. Poland and Hungary are member of V4 (Poland, Czech republic, Slovakia and Hungary). So let say Czech republic and Slovakia join later on. You can add Romania and Bulgaria few years later. All this countries had pretty decent arms industry and can manufacture almost everything for their army. Also, as a former WP members, their armament is pretty standardized. Except fighter/ bomber jets they can manufacture even jet aircraft (Aero for example). And this could be bought in Russia/ US/ Sweden.
Well, it's more-less what I suggested, but still wouldn't really be what the OP wants - continuation of the original Warsaw Pact despite the fall of the USSR, which given that it was an important tool of Soviet control and was disbanded before it's collapse makes the OP impossible - it is going to be disbanded once the eastern bloc countries regain freedom to terminate Soviet control over their militaries. And that will always happen before the USSR collapses - whether it's days, months or weeks.
Re-negotiation of an alliance of central european states seems closest to what the OP can want, though it still would pose difficulties. There was no promise to Gorbachev (it's basicaly a russian propaganda lie), and even if there were, it would be irrelevant (NATO - Russia deals can't prevent other countries from seeking to join the alliance). It's not like the Russians upheld their promises from Yalta. And Germany will want to expand NATO eastwards so as not to be the frontier, and be able to place less budget money defense, as well as to have more stable neighbours. The USA is the power to stop the newly freed states from joining, which does mean a lot, but the fact that even Clinton eventually agreed to NATO expansion is telling as well.
Well, he still can demand exactly that. No NATO east of German border or no reunification. I am not sure how it could work out. If all members of NATO would vote for something like that. I still think it is possible Germany would agree.
But anyway, there is no other way to save some form of WP.