AHC: War between Saudi Arabia and Iran

kernals12

Banned
The Middle East is infamous for its volatility but the two most powerful countries in that region, Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite hating each other with a passion, have never gone to war. So with a POD after 1979, make it happen.
 

kernals12

Banned
This would certainly plunge the world into an apocalyptic energy crisis. The price might rise high enough to justify exploiting unconventional sources such as Kerogen rock, coal liquefaction, or even fixing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
 

nbcman

Donor
This would certainly plunge the world into an apocalyptic energy crisis. The price might rise high enough to justify exploiting unconventional sources such as Kerogen rock, coal liquefaction, or even fixing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Not really. The only way the Saudi's would be at war with Iran is with the support of the USA and other nations-otherwise there is no war. Best guess the conflict would escalate similar to US flagging of tankers in the 80s Operation Earnest Will. If a war did occur, there could be a greater US involvement in ground operations along the Iranian coast line to eliminate missile sites but a full scale invasion of Iran would be extremely unlikely. Oil prices wouldn't stay high for a prolonged period for an apocalyptic scenario barring an extreme event such as nuclear weapon strikes on oil production or processing areas in either country.
 
Maybe World War III

Unlikely; Post-1979 nobody is going to stick out their neck THAT far for Iran. The big issue might be security in the Persian Gulf, but if a war does break out I fully expect the region is going to get flooded with warships from various nations who will make it VERY clear that fighting in or around the air and sea space of the Gulf monarchies and main trade routes isen't going to to tolerated.

Granted, there's going to be a rise in oil prices, but global production is diversified enough that this kind of shock (Which is likely to be short-term; given that without the war being wanted abroad and so international war material available only in limited amounts and the fields of allowed active violence highly limited neither side is likely to be able to maintain a conventional war effort for years on end) isen't going to sink the economy or anything. Russia likely makes out like a bandit filling the gap in the market though... possibly causing her to meddle in an effort to keep things hot and prices high so they can profit.
 
Why assume the conflict can only happen with a successful Iranian Revolution ? Why not have the Shah seek to build an Iranian "sphere of influence" in the Persian Gulf making himself and his country a superpower. The Iranian Armed Forces in the 70s were well equipped - couldn't they have taken Kuwait, Bahrain and the north of Saudi ?

This was done in a book "The Crash of 79".
 
They got very close to war in 1984. Tensions rose over Saudi support for Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war.

Iran started violating Saudi airspace in protest and in May harrased a Saudi oil tanker. The Saudis started air defence measures and tensions rose further as the airforces each made threatening manoeuvres.

In June four Iranian warplanes flew into Saudi airspace under orders to bomb oil fields. They were intercepted by Saudi planes and fought a dogfight. Two Iranian jets were shot down and the others were forced to retreat but not before bombing Al-Dammam city, though they didn’t kill anyone.

Perhaps have civilians killed in the bombing, or the crisis otherwise escalate?
 
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The Middle East is infamous for its volatility but the two most powerful countries in that region, Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite hating each other with a passion, have never gone to war. So with a POD after 1979, make it happen.

A major concern during the Iran - Iraq war was that if Iraq fell (and there were several points where the Iranians nearly took Baghdad) the Iranians would go on to threaten the Gulf monarchies.

I could see a scenario where a relatively early Iranian victory sometime in the early 1980s results in the Iranians rolling on into the KSA, or sparking a revolution in majority Shi’a areas such as the Saudi Eastern province or Bahrain.

With a late Iranian victory, you might see the Saudis attack Iranian positions in Iraq to remove what they see as a threat on their borders

Можда Трећи рат. S.A.D to Saudi Arabia and S.S.S.R to Iran

Possibly, but unlikely. Any attack on Saudi Arabia would have resulted in a US intervention, so there’s that.

While the Soviets and the revolutionary Iranians clashed ideologically (and once or twice physically) I could see them backing Iran in such a situation. While the US and the USSR both reluctantly backed Iraq against Iran during their war, the Soviets did seek better relations with Iran and had a number of spats with Saddam for a number of reasons. Early in the war, for example, the Russians refused to aid the Iraqis because of Saddam’s persecution of Iraqi communists.

If the Iranians succeed in knocking out Iraq, I could see a shrewd Soviet General Secretary choosing to support the Iranians against the Saudis and the US with arms and aid. However, a Soviet attack on Iran was more likely to start WW3 than Soviet aid to Iran. The Soviets were deathly scared that a successful Iran might stoke revolution in their majority-Muslim Central Asian and Caucasus regions, and was prepared to invade Iran to prevent that. Meanwhile, US hated the Ayatollah, but was even more scared of the Russians controlling the Persian Gulf.
 

kernals12

Banned
Why assume the conflict can only happen with a successful Iranian Revolution ? Why not have the Shah seek to build an Iranian "sphere of influence" in the Persian Gulf making himself and his country a superpower. The Iranian Armed Forces in the 70s were well equipped - couldn't they have taken Kuwait, Bahrain and the north of Saudi ?

This was done in a book "The Crash of 79".
The Shah was a pragmatic person who wouldn't have wanted to start such a costly war.
 

kernals12

Banned
Unlikely; Post-1979 nobody is going to stick out their neck THAT far for Iran. The big issue might be security in the Persian Gulf, but if a war does break out I fully expect the region is going to get flooded with warships from various nations who will make it VERY clear that fighting in or around the air and sea space of the Gulf monarchies and main trade routes isen't going to to tolerated.

Granted, there's going to be a rise in oil prices, but global production is diversified enough that this kind of shock (Which is likely to be short-term; given that without the war being wanted abroad and so international war material available only in limited amounts and the fields of allowed active violence highly limited neither side is likely to be able to maintain a conventional war effort for years on end) isen't going to sink the economy or anything. Russia likely makes out like a bandit filling the gap in the market though... possibly causing her to meddle in an effort to keep things hot and prices high so they can profit.
The Persian gulf's market share has been constant at 27% since the Gulf War. That'd be a massive shock to lose it all.
 

nbcman

Donor
The Persian gulf's market share has been constant at 27% since the Gulf War. That'd be a massive shock to lose it all.
How would the world 'lose it all'? Are the Saudi's and Iranian's attacking the other gulf states' oil facilities? Even if it is just between the two states (unlikely), those states would still be trying to export some oil unless the oil is completely inaccessible.
 

kernals12

Banned
How would the world 'lose it all'? Are the Saudi's and Iranian's attacking the other gulf states' oil facilities? Even if it is just between the two states (unlikely), those states would still be trying to export some oil unless the oil is completely inaccessible.
I don't see how the other gulf states couldn't get dragged in
 

nbcman

Donor
I don't see how the other gulf states couldn't get dragged in
Then if the other Gulf States are at war, there will be other interested parties involved as well such as the US, European states (UK, France). Those other interested parties have military capabilities which would be significantly stronger than either Saudi Arabia or Iran which would restart the flow of oil. Unless either Saudi Arabia or Iran was suicidal, the war would be over quickly. If someone went completely rogue and salted the earth around the oilfields using nukes or extremely persistent chem agents, then there would be a long term catastrophic impact both to oil prices and to the country that went rogue.
 
How would the world 'lose it all'? Are the Saudi's and Iranian's attacking the other gulf states' oil facilities? Even if it is just between the two states (unlikely), those states would still be trying to export some oil unless the oil is completely inaccessible.

It gets exported through the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. If you have missiles flying left and right its going to be very hard for the oil to get out. It was tough enough in the mid-80s when Iran mined the straits but there they werent even at war.

Oil prices arent set at absolute volume but rather marginal changes relative to demand. It doesnt take much for oil prices to go through the roof.
 

nbcman

Donor
It gets exported through the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. If you have missiles flying left and right its going to be very hard for the oil to get out. It was tough enough in the mid-80s when Iran mined the straits but there they werent even at war.

Oil prices arent set at absolute volume but rather marginal changes relative to demand. It doesnt take much for oil prices to go through the roof.
Other than oil prices dropped during the 1980s even with the Iran-Iraq war. Once Iran stepped up their activities to interdict oil tankers in the late 1980s, the US took action in Operations Nimble Archer and Praying Mantis. If the Iranians do it now, they would have to contend with not only US forces but the forces of the PRC who would not take kindly to losing 40+% of their oil imports.
 

kernals12

Banned
Other than oil prices dropped during the 1980s even with the Iran-Iraq war. Once Iran stepped up their activities to interdict oil tankers in the late 1980s, the US took action in Operations Nimble Archer and Praying Mantis. If the Iranians do it now, they would have to contend with not only US forces but the forces of the PRC who would not take kindly to losing 40+% of their oil imports.
China was a net oil exporter until 1993.
 

nbcman

Donor
China was a net oil exporter until 1993.
Understood. But my final sentence was in reference to missiles flying which implies a conflict that occurs after Iran had missiles (EDIT: other than Harpoon and Silkworm missiles which they had in the late 1980s but they probably would be left with the missiles that they had at that time since they probably couldn't get reloads). This would be in a conflict of this century, not in the 20th century.
 
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The instant CNN shows footage of an Iranian missile striking an oil tanker, Lloyds is going to stop insuring traffic in the area, American convoys or not.
 
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