AHC: Wank Twentieth Century France

The twentieth century was... rough for france. Docked to second place in continental europe as Germany rose and third on the world stage with America. The world wars decimated their population and led to the fall of the empire. While France is still a word power, the republic is more around #7 (by GDP, I dunno about military).

Your challenge is to have France be the second or third largest economy in the world. Empire being optional
 
WW1 is fought in 1920 and Germany is crushed by a France who had complete severals military reforms and Russia who is simply more powerful economically and military.

And after the death of Franz Josef in 1917 or 1918, Austria-Hungary is in a deep ethnic and political crisis.
 
Germany accepted to loose Alsace-Moselle to France and Wielkopolska and others regions with clear polish majorities to a Russian Poland while negotiating a union with the Germans from AH.

The defeat and the tensions between Germans and Austrians destroyed the unity of the German Empire who loose political unity and see the separation of severals Kingdoms and Principalities and the building of a German Conferation, bigger but less united.
 
Second or third largest economy in the world is extremely difficult given that there is the United States, Japan, the Ottoman Empire, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, China, India, Russia, Brazil, etc. as potential competitors. You can knock some of them out, as happened with OTL competitors like Russia or Brazil which hasn't quite caught up, but not all of them. Fundamentally France is a country of 70 million people and competing with massive countries with hundreds of millions or billions like China, India, the USA, or even Japan, is hard.

You would need something equivalent to a nuclear exchange where the only country not impacted is France, or an extremely convoluted and low probability history.

This is especially hard since IMO of the European great powers France came out perhaps the best in the 20th century - the British lost their empire, Ireland, have been reduced to an American satellite state, their leading economic status in Europe gone. The Germans of course lost their empire too - not that that means very much for them - and much more importantly huge swathes of territory in Europe, so that even if Germany is still the richest and second most populous European nation, compared to what it could have been in absolute terms it is a pale shadow. I've argued in the past that the world wars were in relative terms a benefit for Germany compared to most other European powers, and that's still true I think, but Germany was still very much impacted by the wars and its 20th century has been a troubled one as well. Russia is even worse with the greatest retrenchment and largest loss of territories that it has ever experienced. Austria-Hungary collapsed. Italy is the only one which might be compared to France since it mostly maintained its position at the start and continues to be what it was then - a middle-weight regional power. The wars might have been hard on France but the French have generally been able to, in diplomatic terms at least, cushion their impact.

So what do you need to improve France's stance? You need a lot more people - and here just having less devastating world wars won't help you, since the French population growth figures were very low, and so some calculations without the world wars but also without the French post-war baby boom actually see the French have less population. You need to massively wipe out competitors. And you almost certainly need the empire to compete since otherwise the USA, China, Japan, etc. are almost impossible to deal with.

Before the First World War a different army administration rather than Joffre comes to charge, and is able to launch major reforms and significant improvements to the French military, based upon massive increases in artillery, significant doctrinal changes, dramatic increases in efficiency, major strength increases with a colonial army from Africa hugely increased in size and to be deployed to Europe, new and advanced military-weapons like artillery, light machine guns, and the semi-automatic rifle, etc. These are relayed to the Germans and they decide that attacking France is no longer feasible, while the Italians, encouraged by increasing French land strength, come more to the French side. When WW1 breaks out the Germans only go East, with the Russians suffering crippling damage before managing to hold the Germans on a defensive line, while the Italians and French are arrayed on the Russian side but neither is capable of launching major offensives. The Ottomans are neutral which greatly aids the Russians, and the British enter the war on the Russian side in a panic when it seems that the Russian empire is on the verge of collapse. This is a double-edged sword, because the immediate British institution of a strangle-hold blockade on Germany is so incredibly extreme that it leads to a declaration of war by the United States on the British. With time ticking a massive entente attack, with massive amounts of French artillery, tanks, and firepower striking the German armies in Alsace, coordinated offensives by the Entente navies in an all-out strike to crush the German and Austro-Hungarian fleets regardless of losses, Italian general offensives and major amphibious landings, and Russian equivalents to the Brussilov offensive is planned. The French offensive is stunningly successful with the surprise appearance of tanks and the huge artillery barrages as well as sophisticated new tactical doctrines from observers on the Russian front, and the French smash through Alsace-Lorraine, while the Russians are quickly reinforced by the Romanians and make massive inroads into Austria-Hungary and the Italians finish the blow from the West. The Allied navies take massive casualties but the German fleet is destroyed, and a major British amphibious landing occurs in the Baltic with Russian assistance. Aggressive Allied attacks keep the Central Powers off balance and they collapse. The damage is sown however: the Russian empire implodes almost as soon as the peace treaty is signed, falling into feuding factions of communists, socialists, monarchists, republicans, and ethnic nationalists along the frontiers. Germany is crippled and huge territories are ripped from it in the East and West, alongside major reparations, its colonial empire distributed up, and secession movements in Southern Germany unite with Austrians to form two competing German states - while Austria-Hungary itself collapses.

This still leaves the Americans however, in their war against the British, with the Japanese having joined the English against the Americans. The British decision to fight until the last shell against the Germans enabled them to win quickly, but at tremendous cost in naval units: the resultant war between the English and the Americans grows more and more bitter as fighting in Canada escalates and sees reprisals and violence by both sides. Japan, in addition to taking the German colonies in the closing days of the war, seizes the Philippines and American Pacific possessions, while climatic battles between the British and American fleets in the Caribbean see both sides ground down to a nub, but ultimately a British victory taking the American Caribbean colonies. Canada however, after a painful battle, ultimately falls, with casualties on both sides reaching tragic numbers. The grinding battle by both sides results in bankruptcy for the Japanese, and ultimately a peace of exhaustion between the powers happens - with everyone involved having lost, to tremendous financial, economic, and demographic harm to all involved. for a return to status quo ante bellum. A cold war between the Americans and British sets in.

The French benefit from this period with major industrial sales to the British, economic loans, snapping up Liberia without American protection, and small British enclaves in West Africa being sold to the French to help finance the war. Internally the French economy, with the territories taken from Germany, large reparations, and favorable international trade, booms during the war, and a post-war baby boom sets in. With a rich and fast developing economy and gratitude to the colonial population who had made major military contributions to the French victory over Germany, significant liberalization, economic development, educational extension, and reform occurs in the colonies, similar to the Sarraut plan of the 1920s but on an even greater scale. Combined with increasing European economic integration, this sets the tone for a decades long expansion of the French economy and a constantly fast growing population.

Decades later, another major war breaks out between the British and the Japanese, and the Americans, this time with the Chinese and then the newly reconstituted Russia joining against the Japanese and British. The American offensive is a catastrophe against the massive British defenses in Eastern Canada, and a huge conflagration in East Asia sees huge fighting between the involved sides. The Ottomans jump into the war against Russia, and once again a years-long stalemate happens - with the Russians once again collapsing, joined by the Ottomans with quick interventions by the French and Italians to secure post-war spheres of influence. Although the Americans this time are victorious, taking Canada, the Caribbean, and the Japanese collapsing under the combined weight of the Chinese army and American submarine raiding offensives, the cost of the war is far too much for the Amerians, and years of stagnation and ultimately civil war set in. The British Empire is in even worse shape, with a major independence war breaking out in India seeing bloody fighting which sees casualties rise into the millions, the independence of a united Ireland, and anarchy in Africa - one exploited by the French, who under the guise of restoring order take over much of Britain's African colonies, imitated by the Italians who do the same in East Africa. Belgium also breaks apart, leading to the French annexation of Wallonia and then Luxembourg.

This world order exists to the present, with the United States in chaos and riven by fighting factions, Russia balkanized and thrown into anarchy, the Ottoman empire collapsed, the British Empire destroyed and England impoverished by the years of war and thoroughly behind France, India thrown in bloody sectional violence, Japan struggling under massive bankruptcy and in a perpetual cold war with the Chinese, while the Chinese themselves never see a massive economic take-off. Germany's split into two nations gels. The French are the last ones standing, peacefully shedding their more distant colonies like Indochina and most of tropical Africa over time even as they maintain significant influence there, while closer and less difficult colonies are better integrated, and the internal population boom continues to this day. Although the Americans are somewhat larger economically, the gap is not that large, and all other great economic powers have essentially collapsed or been neutered. The world is a much less economically developed place as a whole, even though former French colonies have done better out of it, and much more centered on Europe than in our timeline, where France and its partner Italy are at the center of the European project.
 
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The OP challenge is to make France the second or the third largest economy in the world in 1999.

In OTL, France was the 7th in 2019 according to the IMF.

Thanks to Auntie Wiki :


It's time to find informations about French position in 1999.

Again Auntie Wiki gave us informations :


France was the 4th leading economy post the USSR collapse, and until the beginning of the 2000 decade where it was challenged for the fourth position by the UK and China resulting France to be the 6th leading economy in 2005.

So not bad for the "in crisis" France.

So the POD is simple, four of them, with one being optionnal.

- Blair reforms in the UK are not successful.

- Germany economy collapsed badly post unification.

- Japan economic crisis starting in 1995 is worst.

- China economy don't rise as in OTL and is crippled by political and social problems.
 
@Bad@logic has largely nailed it on three counts: France really didn't do that bad for an european power, for it to become a powerhouse you need to grant it additional ressources, and the most effective way to make it n°1 is simply to make it the last man standing. However, I find the way you get to it rather convoluted and hard to believe - there should definitely an AH.com award for the most convoluted alt-WW1, and you should be nominated for it !

So here's my modest alt-proposal, which differs mostly on 2 counts: the course of WW1, and the source of added ressources - Europe, not just the empire. The idea is to combine a stronger french position in Europe and a stronger Empire with an earlier European integration, allowing France to snowball as a global power through Europe.

In 1916, the Briand government manages to stay in power in France - Briand was a moderate socialist and a committed european. So, when peace feelers come from Austria-Hungary in 1917, Briand does not reject them outright like Clemenceau did OTL, but instead, right after the russian collapse, manages to convince the Austrians to sign a separate peace (say the Austrians agree to give the Italians most of what they want in exchange for a free hand in Romania and the matter of Serbia being quietly dropped). With fleeting hopes of the war coming to a negociated end, Wilson decides not to bring the US into the war; yet the Germans are furious but undaunted, and end up in a state of war with Austria. The German spring offensive of 1918 takes place as OTL, but is weakened by the need to guard the austrian border, and in the summer of 1918 the Entente counter-offensive rolls into the german fatherland.
So we have a WW1 with a cascade of relatively plausible changes : Briand gov -> separate austrian peace (unlikely but possible) -> no US direct involvement (possible if Wilson believes he can get a better seat at the peace table if he keeps sponsoring negociations) -> the French push for a total victory against the Germans.

OTL, the US and the British pressured France at Versailles to limit its revanchist ambitions. TTL, the US is not there; and although the Austrians are at the negociation table, they understand that they are made responsible of the defeat by the Germans and will gain nothing from trying to protect them; rather, they share the fear of a german resurgence. So the Versailles peace deal has two major differences with OTL:
1) France gets a chunk of the Rhineland, probably taking Saarland and some other bonuses of high economic value
2°) The League of Nations is replaced by a purely European architecture.

In the 20s, there are three major butterflies. As Briand is seen as having engineered the Victory, the socialists are much more popular in France, and manage to push through some reforms in the colonies, in particular an equivalent to OTL's plan Blum-Violette. Second, europeist movements are more successful than OTL: because of Briand's prestige (which yes, I am using as a phlebotinium), the 1929 Briand Plan is accepted under a very watered-down version, creating an "European League" based in Geneva, with largely theorical powers. Third, France avoids OTL's deflationist policies that aggravated the 1930s economic crisis because, you guessed it, Briand's prestige keeps the socialists closer to power. Ah, and Italy doesn't go fascist, I think, since they have gotten more from the peace deal.

Come the rise of the Nazis, as OTL - possibly even faster since Germany got hit harder at Versailles. The german invasion of the Austrian Empire comes as a shock to the world, as the Empire collapses in under three weeks, and the European League collapses in its wake as it is seen as unable to maintain security. The French, shocked out of their complacency, rearm faster than OTL, allowing the war to go à la Blunted Sickle - initial german successes see the Entente holding on by their fingernails, and the war turns into a curbstomb of the Germans once the Entente has mobilised.
Politically, the near-defeat has shown the French and British the need to hang together. The European League is replaced in 1941 by an European Commonwealth; since France played a central role in the interwar attempts at federation (did I mention Briand's prestige?), it is headquartered in Paris, and possesses a common army - the nucleus of which is french - a common currency - the pound - a common government, which for now is formed of the sum of national government (but that arangement won't last) - and a de facto common language: French.
The war ends in 1942. Germany is defeated, and the Rhineland is made into a separate state, as is Silesia in the East; they are to be administered by France and Austria as trusteeships of the European Commonwealth (yes, Austria is cobbled back together, but severely weakened). The continent is united in an European Commonwealth that is a quasi-federal entity dominated by the French and British.

Come the post-war years. The EC's government is democratically elected from the 1950s onward, making it federal, but in fact the franco-british maintain a preponderance by virtue of having the bucks and guns. As far as decolonisation goes, colonised peoples are offered two different possibilities appart from complete independance: assimilation, made possible in at least some french colonies by the 1920s reforms, or an associated state status. Now, let's posit a major british cock-up somewhere, say an Indian war of independance, and we end up in the 1960s with an EC where France is clearly the senior partner since it has assimilated colonial lands, has a larger army, and closer connections in continental Europe (and because I didn't screw them up like I did the British).
You need to understand that OTL, Europe was a force multiplier for France with tradeoffs in terms of independance ; TTL, it is even more so. It allows it to remain a military superpower since the French army is the core and de facto leader of a common force that rivals the Red Army; it kicks off an even stronger economic boom than OTL; and it allows it to retain control of the Rhineland, probably also reducing the Benelux to a subordinate position. ITTL, eurosceptics probably refer to the EC as "the third french empire".

Meanwhile, the US never grows as powerful as OTL : it remains "isolationist" in so far as it is never sucked into world affairs the same way as OTL ; the Pacific War is averted, leaving Japan (and China) into a two decades-long stagnation under a militarist regime; the USSR collapses as OTL.

In 1999, the heads of the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian governments formally sign the adhesion of their countries to the European Commonwealth in its capital, Paris. French language courses are being offered in ever-increasing numbers in Riga, Talinn and Vilnius, as everyone knows that speaking French is necessary in the modern economy: how else would you be employed in the oil rigs of Gabon, the glass towers of La Défense, the weapons factories of Sarrebruck or even as a social worker in Algiers? It is in French that the fate of the French empire, spanning from Dunkerque to Brazzaville, is decided; but, perhaps more importantly, it is French that the course of the great European republic is steered. At the heart of the World is Europe; at the heart of Europe is France; as it ever shall be.
....Yeah no. Things very probably go pear-shaped for that overconfident Europe very quickly.

A french-led european integration coupled with limited retension of french imperial possessions and a stronger european position makes for a very powerful cocktail, especially if you manage to take the US down a peg

Isn't that basically the plot of Twilight 2000 and 2300AD?

French arm of the galaxy when?
 
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Thomas1195

Banned
Wank 20th Century France? That is not going to help with their infamous 20thC population problems.
Have France adopting a better strategy in 1914 would help conserving more young men. Also, perhaps something can be done to move the OTL post-war population boom to the interwar period.
 
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