AHC: Wank The Dutch

[Chercha]

We're also running into a bit of a national identity problem. It is much easier to wank the Netherlands than it is to wank the Dutch. Before the 80 Years War, the entire populace of the 17 Provinces would have identified as Netherlanders. They would have identified with the province they were from, the language they spoke, and their nation of origin (In this case, the term 'Netherlands' and 'Netherlander' referring to the entirety of the modern day Low Countries), and most principally, their faith. The distinction of the region into three nations, and only one of them being called 'The Netherlands', is very modern. There is much more territory, wealth, and people in the hands of the Netherlands as a whole than there is in the hands of the Dutch.

No matter what however, the simple factor of raw size will always inhibit the Netherlands compared to her neighbors. While like OTL she can make up the difference with larger amounts of wealth, France, England, Spain, and Germany will always have larger populations. So while the Netherlands can always do better than OTL, she could not achieve dominance along the lines of Great Britain. That is, not without a complete screw of every other European Power, or a bunch of ethnic cleansing to turn the Rhine valley Dutch. Both of which seem ASB.

Its not as if our Netherlands are completely homogenous, what with the Frisians and Saxons up north. The concept of being Dutch could develop into something that encompasses Wallonians and hypothetical Rhinelanders as well. In general the Dutch would need to take the Westphalian and Electoral Rhenish circle to become one of the top 5 countries worldwide; if neighbouring countries have more population, cut them down to size.

 

[Mechadogzilla]

Its not as if our Netherlands are completely homogenous, what with the Frisians and Saxons up north. The concept of being Dutch could develop into something that encompasses Wallonians and hypothetical Rhinelanders as well. In general the Dutch would need to take the Westphalian and Electoral Rhenish circle to become one of the top 5 countries worldwide; if neighbouring countries have more population, cut them down to size.

I mean while that is possible, I’m not sure through which avenue it could be achieved. Any Dutch attempts at conquest would directly run afoul of the Holy Roman Emperor, who wouldn’t appreciate his subject-in-name-only attempting to seize lands from his empire. And the Lutheran princes of northern Germany were some of the few allies of the early Dutch Republic, there was no animosity or desire to expand there. The French also wouldn’t appreciate an expansionist country on their border, especially one that’s far weaker.

Had she performed better, the Netherlands could have grown in size from the 30 years war or other conflicts of the era, but I think the complete ownership of the Rhine is unlikely. Not unless you have a Burgundy-Superwank in the 1300-1400s. And such a state would be French speaking.

 

[Chercha]

I mean while that is possible, I’m not sure through which avenue it could be achieved. Any Dutch attempts at conquest would directly run afoul of the Holy Roman Emperor, who wouldn’t appreciate his subject-in-name-only attempting to seize lands from his empire. And the Lutheran princes of northern Germany were some of the few allies of the early Dutch Republic, there was no animosity or desire to expand there. The French also wouldn’t appreciate an expansionist country on their border, especially one that’s far weaker.

Had she performed better, the Netherlands could have grown in size from the 30 years war or other conflicts of the era, but I think the complete ownership of the Rhine is unlikely. Not unless you have a Burgundy-Superwank in the 1300-1400s. And such a state would be French speaking.

Netherlands come out of the 80 years war with all or most of their provinces by 1600 (possibly by allying with the French) ==> the HRE falls apart into its constituent imperial circles after the 30 years war ==> NL gobble up everything up to Bonn while the French take the areas to the south ==> keep the French happy by wailing on the English, ally with the Austrians if France turns their eyes on the Netherlands.

Not an easy to achieve scenario, but possible.

 

[NedStark]

And the Lutheran princes of northern Germany were some of the few allies of the early Dutch Republic, there was no animosity or desire to expand there.

Well, there is the Prince Bishophoric of Munster which was an OTL enemy of the Dutch. A different Dutch Republic would have invaded and sacked Munster and probably grabbed Cleves and some other Rhineland regions from them.

Rhine Province - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

With the right PODs, the Dutch could grab much of this area. This would make a huge industrial base, and a lack of this area would have significantly weakened any unified German state.

 

[Xavier]

A nation were Calvinists and Catholics tolerate each other to avoid 'tyrants' such as the Spanish King and the French taking away hard earned rights.

A thousand times this, forgot to mention it myself thursday, but Calvinists & Catholics learning to get along is critical. OTL, the Calvinist mistrust and maltreatment of the Catholics is what drove hundreds of Catholic nobles back into the arms of the Spanish once Phillip learned to appoint a governor who used carrot & stick, rather than stick & stick.

Let all thing that went wrong in the 17th and 18th century went right.
- Conquest of Antwerp, after the battle of Kallo 1638

Too late IMO, the counter-reformation has had 2+ generations to do its thing at this point so the Calvinists & Catholics won't trust each other and the traders of Holland & Zeeland will be weary of getting a major internal competitor.

Or not having William become king Billy at all, leaving the English for a couple of more decades in the dark regarding financing their fleet and army. The financing capabilities of the Dutch Republic allowed it to muster large armies and finance the war fleet.

This, WIII was a bad thing for the Dutch Republic, as England learned modern finances and got to fight a war paid in large part by the Dutch and getting most of the benefits , while the Dutch essentially got nothing for their effort and were left financially ruined.

- Implementing a more centralized government in the first quarter of half of the 18th century.

Too late again IMO, better than not at all obviously, but for any real greatness such reforms have to happen before the end of the Golden Age.

Botg England and the Netherlands are going to orient themselves on trade sooner or later, which would inevitably bring them into conflict. An alliance or even an understanding between the two is per definition of limited duration until one becomes top dog, as the English did in the 18th century. And to kick in English teeth, the Dutch are going to need a French alliance. Of course, odds are a French king is going to get greedy at some point, so the Dutch can't just ignore the rest of the continent in a diplomatic sense.It's not a simple task, which doesn't mean the Dutch cannot pull it off. Keeping all 17 original Provinces or a solid majority of them at least is a prerequisite to maintain relevancy.

Indeed critical on both points. A French alliance is tricky, but not impossible, as even an United Netherlands that is occasionally expanding into the HRE is not really a threat to France, that is at least one less excuse for France to attack. Both countries also have some common natural enemies in Spain & England.

Your best bet, without going into the Medieval Era, would be a complete Dutch Victory in the 80 Years War, and the war being way shorter and less destructive. The four richest of the 17 Provinces were Brabant, Flanders, Holland, and Zealand, in that order. And the Dutch Republic only had access to the last two of those. The port of Antwerp was the largest commercial hub in all of Europe before the war. Though much of it was ruined and much of the capital fled north to Amsterdam in the course of the war, it's loss was another huge blow to the Republic. The demographic and economic damages of the decades of fighting (along with general strife and instability) were far from disastrous, but they weren't good. Avoiding as much of the war as possible, and ensuring all 17 provinces enter the union are the two most important factors in wanking the Dutch imo.

Aye, though Holland did become richer than Brabant or Flanders ever were....because the richest Brabantians & Flemings all fled North. For instance, of the initial shareholders of the VOC, all major ones were born in the South.

We're also running into a bit of a national identity problem. It is much easier to wank the Netherlands than it is to wank the Dutch. Before the 80 Years War, the entire populace of the 17 Provinces would have identified as Netherlanders. They would have identified with the province they were from, the language they spoke, and their nation of origin (In this case, the term 'Netherlands' and 'Netherlander' referring to the entirety of the modern day Low Countries), and most principally, their faith. The distinction of the region into three nations, and only one of them being called 'The Netherlands', is very modern. There is much more territory, wealth, and people in the hands of the Netherlands as a whole than there is in the hands of the Dutch.

No matter what however, the simple factor of raw size will always inhibit the Netherlands compared to her neighbors. While like OTL she can make up the difference with larger amounts of wealth, France, England, Spain, and Germany will always have larger populations. So while the Netherlands can always do better than OTL, she could not achieve dominance along the lines of Great Britain. That is, not without a complete screw of every other European Power, or a bunch of ethnic cleansing to turn the Rhine valley Dutch. Both of which seem ASB.


For a much later PoD, having the United Kingdom of the Netherlands survive would put probably put the country in the top 15 GDPs of the modern world, if history roughly plays out similarly. It's not an impossible task, but I've read far less on the topic than I have for the 80 Years War, so I do not have as much to say. It'd be a smaller wank, but a wank nonetheless.

Using World Bank 2019 nominal GDP numbers, the United Kingdom of the Netherlands would be n°13 in GDP, between South Korea & Australia. The same list incidently also shows that, all else staying equal, the GDP would somehow need to double over that to be in the economic top 5.

I'm working on a timeline that should be posted during this spring or summer about this topic. The PoD I'll probably use is having the Dutch win the battle of Mookerheyde. This butterflies into the Dutch having a generally stronger position while that of the Spanish deteriorates throughout the 1570s, with an earlier restart of support by the English. This leads to an Anglo-Spanish War around 7 years earlier than OTL in the late 1570s, only enhancing the position of the Dutch. When the Portuguese Succession Crisis happens in 1580, Phillip has far less resources to press his claim. So he decides Portugal is an easier land to rule than the Netherlands, and the Spanish simply pull out by the 1580s. Escaping much of the damage of the later war, and with a larger territorial area, a Republic of the Seventeen United Provinces is in a far better position than OTL.

Hmm, could be an interesting read. All too many TL's involving the 80YW go for a late solution, partially ignoring the major economic & religious troubles this would cause.

I mean while that is possible, I’m not sure through which avenue it could be achieved. Any Dutch attempts at conquest would directly run afoul of the Holy Roman Emperor, who wouldn’t appreciate his subject-in-name-only attempting to seize lands from his empire. And the Lutheran princes of northern Germany were some of the few allies of the early Dutch Republic, there was no animosity or desire to expand there. The French also wouldn’t appreciate an expansionist country on their border, especially one that’s far weaker.

Had she performed better, the Netherlands could have grown in size from the 30 years war or other conflicts of the era, but I think the complete ownership of the Rhine is unlikely. Not unless you have a Burgundy-Superwank in the 1300-1400s. And such a state would be French speaking.

Eh, my Thursday post shows an easy & conflict-free way of getting most of the Rhineland early on while surrounding the rest (Kurköln), essentially "just" needing to wait for a future mediatisation to get the whole thing.

Any plausible Burgundy-wank still ends up with a Dutch-speaking majority and with Dutch-speaking Brabant & Flanders as economic heart. The court in Brussels is likely to speak French for quite a while, but the country as a whole is pretty much guaranteed to end up bilingual, with Dutch standing a good chance of becoming the main political/court language over time.

Well, there is the Prince Bishophoric of Munster which was an OTL enemy of the Dutch. A different Dutch Republic would have invaded and sacked Munster and probably grabbed Cleves and some other Rhineland regions from them.

Rhine Province - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

With the right PODs, the Dutch could grab much of this area. This would make a huge industrial base, and a lack of this area would have significantly weakened any unified German state.

Yes, apart from Cleves which never belonged to Münster, it was united with Jülich, Berg & Mark first, then went to Prussia when the local rulers died out and their possessions were divided.

 

[NedStark]

Aye, though Holland did become richer than Brabant or Flanders ever were....because the richest Brabantians & Flemings all fled North. For instance, of the initial shareholders of the VOC, all major ones were born in the South.

I mean, "Antwerp hold" is a very underused POD. Most PODs involved retaking Antwerp later.