AHC Wank the CSA and Screw the USA as much possible
Make the North adopt the South's love of slavery and the northern industries become an advantage.
Territorial-wise, all the claims of the CSA are recognized: Maryland, West Virginia remaining part of Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, and all of the New Mexico Territory and not merely Confederate Arizona. SoCal also successfully rises up somehow - you can just extend the 37th parallel due west or divide California by the Tehachapi Mountains.
Skallagrim
Banned
If you want to keep it even somewhat realistic, you need to go with a Trent War. Now, the very premise of a Trent War is very unlikely, because even if it broke out (which could only happen if Lincoln failed to understand that, yes, Britain would declare war unless the British demands were met without delay or further mediation), Lincoln would apologise and sue for peace at once. But let us assume that the conflict breaks out, and that patriotic fervour in the USA doesn't allow Lincoln to back down. In that case, you'd see something very much like @Saphroneth's excellent timeline on the matter. Bottom line: the USA would be up shit creek, and no paddles would be forthcoming. Under the right circumstances, this could allow the CSA to get Southern California, New Mexico Territory, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC. Possibly also Delaware.
That's by no means a likely scenario, and it can only ever be achieved if Britain and the USA are at war during the Civil War. This is truly the most far-reaching wank that the CSA could hope to get in any timeline that is not steered by the mighty wing-flap of an ASB.
As for screwing over the USA: the same scenario allows for that (beyond the losses already mentioned), because Britain could plausibly lop off some bits in the settlement of the war. Depending on how the conflict goes and how badly the Americans have pissed Britain off, you could at the very most imagine a TL wherein Britain takes the area that would become Washington state, that little border area jutting north at Lake of the Woods, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Detroit and a modest border strip west of Detroit River (to secure British control of said river), a similar border strip east of the Niagara (to secure said area for Britain as well), a border strip along the New York side of the St. Lawrence (to secure control of that river), and basically the northern half of Maine (to allow for a nice east-west railroad there, linking Montréal to Fredericton as directly as possible).
This, too, is a very extreme scenario, where US militiamen have by sheer 'luck' somehow managed to kill a leading British general in a dishonourable ambush or something like that, and Britain really feels that the USA must be punished to the greatest extent. Under all other circumstances, Britain would certainly drop some of the above claims.
Anyway, that's it, really. Maybe, and this is rather out there, you could have William Walker's Nicaragua filibuster somehow succeed in a lasting way, and have that be the POD. Then US fears of Nicaraguan pro-CSA blockade running would be amped up, and you could use that as the reason for a tough US stance against all perceived 'foreign help' for the CSA-- resulting in an escalating Trent Crisis and a whipped-up public furor in the USA that stops Lincoln from just seeking peace. The results would then be the same as above, with the added fact that you could have Nicaragua join the CSA after the war, thus wanking the CSA just that little bit more.
I'm out. That's all I've got.
That's by no means a likely scenario, and it can only ever be achieved if Britain and the USA are at war during the Civil War. This is truly the most far-reaching wank that the CSA could hope to get in any timeline that is not steered by the mighty wing-flap of an ASB.
As for screwing over the USA: the same scenario allows for that (beyond the losses already mentioned), because Britain could plausibly lop off some bits in the settlement of the war. Depending on how the conflict goes and how badly the Americans have pissed Britain off, you could at the very most imagine a TL wherein Britain takes the area that would become Washington state, that little border area jutting north at Lake of the Woods, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Detroit and a modest border strip west of Detroit River (to secure British control of said river), a similar border strip east of the Niagara (to secure said area for Britain as well), a border strip along the New York side of the St. Lawrence (to secure control of that river), and basically the northern half of Maine (to allow for a nice east-west railroad there, linking Montréal to Fredericton as directly as possible).
This, too, is a very extreme scenario, where US militiamen have by sheer 'luck' somehow managed to kill a leading British general in a dishonourable ambush or something like that, and Britain really feels that the USA must be punished to the greatest extent. Under all other circumstances, Britain would certainly drop some of the above claims.
Anyway, that's it, really. Maybe, and this is rather out there, you could have William Walker's Nicaragua filibuster somehow succeed in a lasting way, and have that be the POD. Then US fears of Nicaraguan pro-CSA blockade running would be amped up, and you could use that as the reason for a tough US stance against all perceived 'foreign help' for the CSA-- resulting in an escalating Trent Crisis and a whipped-up public furor in the USA that stops Lincoln from just seeking peace. The results would then be the same as above, with the added fact that you could have Nicaragua join the CSA after the war, thus wanking the CSA just that little bit more.
I'm out. That's all I've got.
Saphroneth
Banned
Apart from saying that you could plausibly have the British take all of Maine, I think Skalla has about the right scale of things. The fact of the matter is that a Trent War (which can be managed with a single-event PoD but which can be made worse still without huge handwaves) pretty much automatically screws over the Union, and that's because the British were deadly serious about things - they'd issued conditional war orders, so functionally speaking by the time Lincoln has been able to realize it wasn't a bluff (and OTL he was prepared to go for mediation and it took days to convince him otherwise - one reason this is quite plausible) the Union has lost the majority of their fleet; this is very hard to avoid.
In domestic political terms, the Union then has a choice between abjectly backing down or trying to secure peace with honour - neither of these is very easy, but the latter (less possible in domestic terms) is going to basically leave the US exposed to further beatdown.
The maxi version of the CSA is basically it as it was in my TL, plus Kansas and all of Missouri, plus the Delmarva. But you can get things going worse still for the US - have them continue to fight until the NY Mayor tries to secede! At that point things get very complicated very fast, and the US comes out of it lamed at best even if it manages to avoid total financial collapse.
In domestic political terms, the Union then has a choice between abjectly backing down or trying to secure peace with honour - neither of these is very easy, but the latter (less possible in domestic terms) is going to basically leave the US exposed to further beatdown.
The maxi version of the CSA is basically it as it was in my TL, plus Kansas and all of Missouri, plus the Delmarva. But you can get things going worse still for the US - have them continue to fight until the NY Mayor tries to secede! At that point things get very complicated very fast, and the US comes out of it lamed at best even if it manages to avoid total financial collapse.
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Confederate independence itself is a CSA wank. They're going to have to produce at least one army commander who equals or exceeds Robert E Lee in skill and can get along with Jefferson Davis to manage that. Even then, they probably lose West Virginia and most or all of Tennessee and Arkansas. Taking and keeping any Union territory except Indian territory is nigh-ASB - every OTL attempt to do so ended in failure, often ignominious failure for the Confederates
The Confederacy was imperialistic, so there is a decent chance that an independent CSA would try to take parts of the Caribbean. The main result of this would be dead Confederates, not territorial gains, though.
ahem, which requires Lincoln choosing to fight more than one war at a time (in spite of his express statement) and Prince Albert not being present.
Even then, a best case for the British is your scenario, while a worst case scenario was written by another member of this board (who got himself banned but his work remains) while yet another scenario that is still underway does not have the rosy view of British invincibility that you have.
Problem with wars is that they are unpredictable
Could you please point me to the third scenario. A Trent War timeline that doesn't wank either side would be refreshing.
try this one... its a work in progress
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...mes-the-great-american-war-and-beyond.384833/
Saphroneth
Banned
It requires Lincoln doing what he planned to do on the 26th December 1861 (ask for mediation). That's it.
That's not a worst case for the British, it's considerably worse than that.
the worst case is clearly "Stars and Stripes" trilogy by Harrison
Tsouras actually used a study to base his armor penetration information on. You disagree with that study (and use another study to back up your point). As it is a hypothetical situation we will never know. You also assume battlefield performance by British and Canadian forces that are highly debatable (and have been extensively debated). You also assume that the British can go to war and conduct major operations within a fortnight of the declaration, something even in the 20th Century they difficulty with.
So you have best case scenario pro British, Smith has a best case scenario pro American.
As to Lincoln, it requires Lincoln not listening to advice before the final decision was made. He did listen in that situation, in fact did so repeatedly and routinely while President, and while he made up his own mind, he was no fool.