AHC: Wank Japan, Prevent WWII

With a POD between 1853 and 1900, your challenge is to do exactly that.

Some guiding thoughts:

1. Japan had just opened up after 200 years of isolation due to fear of European colonization.

2. The view that seems to have powered the Meiji Restoration was, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em".

3. Martial arts philosophy: The best way to win a fight is to avoid it in the first place. Strong self-defense, yes; unprovoked aggression, no.

4. Perhaps when the Meiji government sets out to copy European ways to improve themselves, they are smart enough to decide that expansionism and colonialism are flaws in the European way of thinking, not positive features.
 
I'm working on something like that but much much earlier. The problem is that Japan needed resources for its own industries and the western powers wouldn't give or wouldn't give for free, meaning Japan would either be weak, or reliant on foreign powers just like China. So Japan needed to project strength and gain it own source of resources, outside of Japan which didn't have much so it played the European game to the T.

Granted the problem with your challenge is that even if you can still prevent WW2 even if you're not preventing the Sino-Japanese Wars as consequence.
 
4. Perhaps when the Meiji government sets out to copy European ways to improve themselves, they are smart enough to decide that expansionism and colonialism are flaws in the European way of thinking, not positive features.

A key problem with that is Japan has a resource deficit. The logical way of thinking if you are a 19th century Japanese leader is "Europeans colonise, we should too in order to solve our issue." To delay that line of thinking, maybe get Japan to argue more strongly in favour of Sakhalin/Karafuto, maybe in exchange for the Kurils with Russia (opposite of the OTL Treaty of St. Petersburg). That island has some resources (including coal and oil) to fuel Japan without conquering Korea/Pacific as well as gives further land for Japanese colonists. It's also the only territory where Japan can establish a historic claim to, unlike Taiwan, Korea, etc. If Japan could ever purchase Alaska from Russia, then that would definitely nerf the "we need resources, let's fight for them" line of thought. But that's nearly impossible, sadly.

But I suppose an IJN wank in the Russo-Japanese War era and an utter Russian collapse (1905-06 Revolution wins, Russian Republic, I dunno?) maybe could gain the Kamchatka Peninsula as well as Alaska in the event Russia didn't sell it to anyone. The latter brings up more butterflies than the former. Plus Japan's ultimate gain in that war is probably Vladivostok and not a rugged, barely-tamed land with unknown (but very present) resources. Might as well have them gain Chukotka, the Kolyma, and other land Russia offered to the US (but the US turned down) in the extended version of the Alaska Purchase. That might count as colonialism, but it's more the transfer of colonial Russian land with a very sparse population of Russians over many indigenous people to a new colonial power. Colonialism, but not too much "worse" than the US purchasing Alaska and putting their own administration there.
 
But I suppose an IJN wank in the Russo-Japanese War era and an utter Russian collapse (1905-06 Revolution wins, Russian Republic, I dunno?) maybe could gain the Kamchatka Peninsula as well as Alaska in the event Russia didn't sell it to anyone. The latter brings up more butterflies than the former. Plus Japan's ultimate gain in that war is probably Vladivostok and not a rugged, barely-tamed land with unknown (but very present) resources. Might as well have them gain Chukotka, the Kolyma, and other land Russia offered to the US (but the US turned down) in the extended version of the Alaska Purchase. That might count as colonialism, but it's more the transfer of colonial Russian land with a very sparse population of Russians over many indigenous people to a new colonial power. Colonialism, but not too much "worse" than the US purchasing Alaska and putting their own administration there.

OTL was a much of wank for the IJN as it could be short of the entire damn Russian Navy exploding before they leave port. it's the Army that would have to do better, granted I don't know why the Russians would want give to an inferior local power.
 
OTL was a much of wank for the IJN as it could be short of the entire damn Russian Navy exploding before they leave port. it's the Army that would have to do better, granted I don't know why the Russians would want give to an inferior local power.

That's really true. I don't know how Japan could grab Kamchatka from the Russo-Japanese War. They'd probably have to trade Vladivostok for it, which makes no sense from Japan's perspective as I had noted. I still think they could've gained North Sakhalin from that war, which I have no clue why they didn't OTL--it even looks like the fifth island of Japan from a map!
 
That's really true. I don't know how Japan could grab Kamchatka from the Russo-Japanese War. They'd probably have to trade Vladivostok for it, which makes no sense from Japan's perspective as I had noted. I still think they could've gained North Sakhalin from that war, which I have no clue why they didn't OTL--it even looks like the fifth island of Japan from a map!

I don't get why you'd want Kamchatka. There's nothing there, as someone recently pointed out in a post-1900 thread.
 
I don't get why you'd want Kamchatka. There's nothing there, as someone recently pointed out in a post-1900 thread.

It has coal and other resources. They might not be economical in older times unless the government is subsidising their extraction, however. No doubt it would be worth more to Japan than Russian thanks to the closeness to the Home Islands, and that might effect how economical exploiting its mineral reserves is.
 
If you want to avoid a Pacific War simply don't sabotage Japano-American relations in the 19th and 20th centuries. Avoiding WWII however is borderline impossibility so long as the Treaty of Versailles exists.
 
You seem to have forgotten Adolph. Wank Japan in any century, you've still got Germany starting WWII.

Unless of course France starts WW2 instead. You know, because WW1 could have ended differently.

As for 'any century', the butterflies are dying! Aren't we in the before 1900 forum?
 
Could we get a better centralized military command?

Perhaps when looking for European advisors its decided to go with one country for everything.
 
He specified the wank for Japan in the 19th century. But he forgot Europe was where the conflict started, so wanking Japan isn't gonna help him.
 
Assuming he meant that Japan would stay neutral in WWI and WWII, maybe have the US turn down the Alaska purchase after a bloodier Civil War, along with a Japanese government that realizes that it needs resources early on but isn't sure where to get them, along with some kind of influx of money, and Japan might be able to afford to buy some land off of Russia. How much, I am not sure, along with how useful, but it should be able to get something.
 
He specified the wank for Japan in the 19th century. But he forgot Europe was where the conflict started, so wanking Japan isn't gonna help him.

All he needs to do is keep America from taking the Philippines. Maybe put it under German control. And then WW1 comes and the Philippines is taken by Japan, which now has a clear naval path to the rest of the Pacific.
 
All he needs to do is keep America from taking the Philippines. Maybe put it under German control. And then WW1 comes and the Philippines is taken by Japan, which now has a clear naval path to the rest of the Pacific.

Is that a 'wank', though? Surely it depends on how Japan acts in the Philippines. If they make it an allied nation - or maybe a model colony, like Taiwan, at max - then it could be. If they go full Korea on it, though...the words 'running sore' spring to mind :D

Keeping America from taking the Philippines shouldn't be too difficult, though - different POTUS, no 'yellow press', less public enthusiasm for foreign adventuring, a more difficult post-ACW Reconstruction leading to the money/resources not being there for a major war... Or if we go further back, then we could see the US not reaching the Pacific at all, or not being as powerful there. Of course, a POV there could butterfly the Meiji Restoration away entirely...
 
Is that a 'wank', though? Surely it depends on how Japan acts in the Philippines. If they make it an allied nation - or maybe a model colony, like Taiwan, at max - then it could be. If they go full Korea on it, though...the words 'running sore' spring to mind :D

Well, it's the path to a wank. :p
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I actually think that's where my TL is going, at least in terms of Japan.
Due to the butterflies from the Trent war, my current very broad notes are:
The British alliance with Japan takes place as per OTL.
The Union and Confederacy are focused more on one another than the Pacific and China.
China (due to this and other forcings) Gets Itself Together earlier. Thus China-Japan (with the British helping Japan) is the main rivalry in the western Pacific, and is a fundamentally naval thing.
No actual "world war" as such, just a period of unrest over the first half of the 20th century with lots of two-party, three-party or occasionally four-party wars.
 
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