AHC: Wank Italy in the modern era

with any PoD after the collapse of the carolingian empire, prevent italy's decline to mediocrity among the European powers during the modern era. The wank doesn't necessitate an earlier unification, only for the region to remain dominant in European and worldly affairs as it had been in medieval and ancient times.
 
The decline of the Mediterranean in favour of the Atlantic is a big problem for modern Italian dominance. I don't have a solution myself, but I'd be interested in how anyone would go about getting an Italian interest on the oceans. With a Carolingian PoD anything is possible, really.
 
I don't know enough about the history to come up with specific details, but I wonder if an early-unified Italy somehow winds up in possession of, say, Gibraltar, or some other port at the mouth of the Mediterranean, just as a sort of treaty afterthought, and then winds up developing it into a proper naval base that then spurns interest in the Atlantic?
 
Without dealing with the wider geopolitical scale of things, Gian Galeazzo not dying in 1402 and succeeding in unifying northern Italy would go a long way towards improving Italy’s position by probably preventing the disastrous Italian Wars. A unified north, hopefully eventually all of Italy might have the money to spare on colonial ventures and avoid irrelevancy that way.

As for guaranteed Atlantic access, maybe they involve themselves in North Africa for a port like Algiers?
 
The decline of the mediterranean is somewhat overstated, and also somewhat false. Britain saw it as crucial because 1) of the suez, and 2) because of their trade with Crimea (in the 20th century something like a third of Britain's food came from Ukraine via the straits, and half overall including throughput on the suez).

Simply keeping out of World War Two (as many of Mussolinis advisors warned him the military nor the state were not anywhere near ready for war) is a "wank" all by itself. Italy probably keeps all of her lost territories except Ethiopia and possibly Libya, benefiting from US aid and an allliance (as well as a natural partnership with Spain) and growing rich off of Libyan oil and foreign investment (as well as stint of being a neutral in WWII) by the 21st century Italy would be a probably nuclear power, with a larger military and population than either england or france, notably higher gdp per capita and a dominant presence in the Mediterranean, Balkans, and red sea.

There are, of course, many more variants. With Visconti or Carolingian Italy, for instance, ready expansion into the Balkans, Spain and Southern France are all eminent possibilities; incorporating Provence into Italy (IMHO to be taken for granted in any timeline with a strong northern Italian state; the region is much more intertwined with Lombardy at al than is often appreciated) for instance would add ten million In population.
 
Stay out of the world wars, settle your colionies with your own people, and build up your economy, when the cold war happens side with nato and build your own supply of nuclear weapons, at this point Italy becomes a regional power to be recokoned with.
 
The decline of the mediterranean is somewhat overstated, and also somewhat false. Britain saw it as crucial because 1) of the suez, and 2) because of their trade with Crimea (in the 20th century something like a third of Britain's food came from Ukraine via the straits, and half overall including throughput on the suez).

Simply keeping out of World War Two (as many of Mussolinis advisors warned him the military nor the state were not anywhere near ready for war) is a "wank" all by itself. Italy probably keeps all of her lost territories except Ethiopia and possibly Libya, benefiting from US aid and an allliance (as well as a natural partnership with Spain) and growing rich off of Libyan oil and foreign investment (as well as stint of being a neutral in WWII) by the 21st century Italy would be a probably nuclear power, with a larger military and population than either england or france, notably higher gdp per capita and a dominant presence in the Mediterranean, Balkans, and red sea.

Questionable. A Fascist regime is highly unlikely to avoid mismanaging the country. The problem with Italian Fascism was that, aside its inherent moral bankruptcy, it was inefficient and highly corrupt. A Fascist Italy would be on decent terms with US in alt-Cold War but probably not as close as IOTL and would lack the conditions that created the post-war boom. The economic trajectory might be comparable with Spain and Portugal (accounting for a better starting point) in the postwar period.
This still means potential for economic growth, yes, unless the regime botches that (and it has many ways to do that) but no economic boom.
Military expenses would be far higher than what was needed IOTL (I can't see a Fascist Italy in the alt-NATO after having been neutral) and also kept artificially higher by both inherent regime dynamics (including rampant corruption) and pointless colonial fighting. This would be a drain on the state budget and generally productive economy. Also, this Italy would likely tend to be autarkic at first at least. This may benefit some industries but might also depress potential growth by penalizing consumers.
Nuclear power Italy is also likely incompatible with American allied Italy (IOTL, when Republican Italy briefly toyed with enteratining the notion of a military nuclear program, the Americans - and Soviets - were very quick to make their DEEP DISPLEASURE known). I know that the US tolerate a nuclear armed Israel as a firm ally, and rather more grudgingly swallowed a nuclear Pakistan and still maintained a sort of alliance with it, (and of course, Britain and France are NATO nuclear powers) but this seems quite different. Israel and Pakistan aim at regional nuclear deterrence. Italy would be an independent nuclear power on the Cold War frontline that the US cannot count to be fully aligned (they WEREN'T among the allies, unlike Britain and France).
Of course, perception of nuclear weapons ITTL might be entirely different because of the different WWII and all that it entails.
Certainly this Italy would be a far stronger military power, but this might be detrimental to the overall standards of living of it people (think Pakistan again; nuclear weapons and a military powerhouse, but generally a rather poor country - of course not a very close comparison as the situations are vastly different, still).
 
The decline of the mediterranean is somewhat overstated, and also somewhat false. Britain saw it as crucial because 1) of the suez, and 2) because of their trade with Crimea (in the 20th century something like a third of Britain's food came from Ukraine via the straits, and half overall including throughput on the suez).

That's not what I mean by "decline of the Mediterranean", that the Mediterranean lost all geopolitical relevance. I mean only that it lost its geopolitical primacy (within Europe, of course). The fact that Britain relied on Mediterranean trade at some, much later date doesn't contradict the fact that we speak English (and not Italian) on the Internet because Britain is an Atlantic-facing country. It could, of course, have been Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese or French as well - oceanic powers, suited to the oceanic age that started in 1492 and hasn't really ended yet.

If you want Italian culture to reattain its Late Medieval or even Classical heights of world relevance, you're going to have to establish an Italian connection to the Atlantic and from there the Indian at some point before the 16th-17th-18th centuries.
 
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That's not what I mean by "decline of the Mediterranean", that the Mediterranean lost all geopolitical relevance. I mean only that it lost its geopolitical primacy. The fact that Britain relied on Mediterranean trade at some, much later date doesn't contradict the fact that we speak English (and not Italian) on the Internet because Britain is an Atlantic-facing country.

If you want Italian culture to reattain its Late Medieval or even Classical heights of world relevance, you're going to have to establish an Italian connection to the Atlantic and from there the Indian at some point before the 16th-17th-18th centuries.

Easiest PoD off the top of my head is a Crusader Egypt that is economically dominated by the Italians for something like this: it gives them significant access to the Indian Ocean.
 
Italy control north Africa an the Atlantic side and the mediterranean all the way up to where Carthage is and control Gibraltar then found conilnes ir have the small \ colonies in the mediterranean surive up to the modern day and stay in Italy
 
A) POD in mid-20th century: Italy stays out of WWII and holds onto Albania with Greece as part of its sphere of influence. Ethiopia is allowed satellite status as is Somalia with Eritrea and Libya becoming Italian states with parliamentary representation. Her industry is not shattered, indeed she may grow providing trade to Germany (and become a site for Jewish refugees under the right circumstances). By 2000 if the right leadership is in place she is a leader of non-aligned nations and maybe the #3 power in Continental Europe - and perhaps still Fascist.

B) POD in the early/mid 19th century: Instead of Sardinia uniting the peninsula as OTL have Garibaldi do so via Naples and popular revolts elsewhere. Papacy survives but otherwise no one *king* rules the nation. Republicanism in the Roman tradition proves quite strong and enables first a defeat of Austria in their attempts to shore up Milan then France in an attempt to reinforce Rome. Italy joins Prussia in 1870 and reclaims Corsica, takes Tunisia, puts Nice to a plebiscite (which stays French) along with keeping Savoy.

Albania (and Dalmatia) becomes a protectorate earlier as Italy focuses on the Balkans as its sphere of influence. With the Dodecanese Islands, Crete, and Cyprus in hand she sides with the Allies only very late in World War I in exchange for Slovenia, the balance of the Adriatic coast, and a German colony. She builds relations with the United States and becomes the 'Closet Ally' in World War II under a still-Republican government with a reputation for corruption at minor levels but efficiency at higher ones (yes I had to pay 25 lira for the public intoxication fine at Napoli but the trains were totally attendant and ran precisely to the minute!). After the war the Italians integrate their Enpire and instead of 'Decolonization' experience 'Reintegration' as every part of their Republic is allowef a voice as though it were an Italian state. Interestingly Opone becomes a site of attention for 'Roman' ruins and 'justifies' its continued place in the Republic. By 2000 a Somalian prime minister announces that a pending moon landing is merely a prerequisite to a Mars mission with intent to land before 2010.
 
C) POD between 1500 and 1815: By uniting the disparate Italian city-states they turn the energy used against each other into a force for stabilization and expansion. France tries to bully the nascent Italic League only to be beaten off or beaten back repeatedly. With the victory at Lepanto, League forces move into the Balkans themselves, maintaining their hold on Naxos and western Greek Islands but also taking much of OTL Greece, Albania, Macedonia, and Montenegro. Ottoman forces and League armies clash for a century, helping coalesce the nation as its armies fight as one instead of factions. Habsburg and French meddling also create an 'us against the world' mentality, but with the push into both the alliances of the next 3 centuries see Italy expand at least to the Rhone and the Adriatic become an Italian lake. Her navy, led by Genoa and Venice in friendly but serious competition for quality and quantity, takes an early lead in the colonization race. Much of northernmost and southernmost South America along with OTL Madagascar and South Africa are settled by Italians. Several trading stations in India and China are Italian while Formosa and later Sakhalin are settled by them as well. Japan allows a trading post to be built at an offshore location they call, 'Chuokosinmachi' near Kagoshima. By the OTL Napoleonic Wars, Italy is the dominant economic power in Europe and preparing to fight a Franco-Spanish-Austrian alliance with help from the British, Holy Roman Empire, and resurgent Poland. With Catalonia, Provence, Septipolis, the Baeleric Islands, Basque Country, Slovenia, Croatia, Tyrol, Franche-Comte, and several other areas now under direct or <i>de facto</i> Italian control, the stage is set for wars resembling the World Wars of OTL but in the 19th century.

F) POD between 814 and 1100: With the Byzantines providing protection and many of the writings of Roman scholars still available, great libraries begin to coalesce under first a Byzantine protectorate then an independent Italian kingdom out of Benevento. Rome is reborn just before the Great Death but sanitation measures make Italian deaths half to a third that experienced elsewhere. Armed with the knowledge of the Renaissance centuries ahead of schedule, universities come into being and a metallic-type printing press is built no later than 1242 (which arises based on a Marco Polo description of a Korean system in 1239 or so).

Italy becomes the center of an Industrial Revolution by 1500 and interestingly much of the technological development is les by specialized orders of the Catholic Church, whose monks and nuns are specifically allowed by Papal order to have families to encourage development of intellect and technology. Cistercians lead in physics and metallurgy after developing the Bessemer Process, Trappists still evolve and become dominant in Chemistry, Augustinians lead in biology and genetics, Franciscans in liberal arts and political philisophy, etc. Ironically this retards the development of sailing and the Age of Exploration somewhat as silk and spices are cultivated in Italy before much of the rest of Europe recovers from the Great Death. Rome becomes the center of an Empire reborn, ironically challenged mostly in the 16th and 17th centuries by an Iberian Kingdom and its *very* fundamentalist Church of the True Cross (out of Santiago) fueled by New World gold and silver. By 1800 the Iberians are all but exhausted and High Italian, a combination of formal Italian and Latin with some Greek sprinklings, is becoming the language of Europe and world trade.
 
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D) POD in the 1400s: Instead of French invasion with rewriting the politics of the region, the unity of the Italic League holds and pushes the French totally out of Italy. By 1500 the Rhone becomes a durable border and Corsica is in League hands. Habsburg attempts at interference are equally rebuffed and the combined Venetian and Genoan fleets make Italy master of the central Mediterranean. Ottoman defeats at Lepanto, Patras, and ultimately at Athens (later labeled as 'one of the five most decisive battles in world history') permit Italian dominace of the Balkans and restoration of Christian rule there. Universities flourish, and by 1600 the Italians have taken Istanbul but are unable to keep it.

Anatolia shatters and Italy moves in to pick up the pieces while expanding influence in the Ukraine. Grain shipments prompt Italy to create a satellite kingdom in the southern Ukraine while destruction of Arab and Berber pirates in Tripoli and Tunis lead to Italian colonization of Cyraenica, Libya, Tunisia, and OTL Algeria. With the Age of Sail and Exploration, many Italian colonies arise especially in southern Africa, India, the Italian Indies (OTL eastern Indonesia) and outposts in China. Her navy becomes the standard to measure all other by and only the combined British and French fleets can oppose her...occasionally. By the 20th century technology is 50+ years ahead and Italy has ruled almost a third of the planet at some point, including Nova Capri, Nova Sardinia, and Nova Sicilia (Australia and the two islands of New Zealand, respectively). Latin is adopted as the new internationa lingua franca and the Prime Ministers of the Italian Senate look more list a list of UN Secretary-Generals with almost half as women after 1880.

E) POD between 1100 and 1400: As above but more extreme.
 
The Chaos TL has a New Roman Empire which developed from the republic of Florence and comprises at its height:

* Italy, all of Iberia and most of France, plus Ticino
* Croatia, Albania, Greece, Cyprus
* Syria, Cilicia, all of North Africa and Somalia
* The southern half of the continental US
* All of Latin America, except the area south of the Tropic of Capricorn and east of the Andes
* Most of what was British-India IOTL.

Want to know more? Read the TL.
 
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