AHC: Wank China AND Japan!
- Thread starter Alkahest
- Start date
"(Southern) Manchuria" remained as an integral part of "Korea" (neither concept technically existed before AD 1000 or so) from 1500 BC to AD 926 under Gojoseon, Buyeo, Goguryeo, and Balhae, with occasional interruptions, and Liaodong briefly came under Goryeo control from 1307-76. It's also worth noting that the Korean Peninsula south of what is now Pyongyang might not even have been "Korean" until after 300 BC or so, when the first major southward migration occurred. Other than that, Korea could only have realistically expanded significantly into Manchuria around the mid-17th century, but this would have required a PoD around 1450-1550 in order to butterfly away the Imjin War.
In other words, Korea could have permanently retained or expanded into Manchuria if divergences occurred around AD 390-450, 1340-60, or 1450-1550, although it would have been extremely unlikely for it to expand north of the Songhua River, as the region remained sparsely populated and extremely inhospitable in terms of the general climate.
SunDeep
Banned
You wonder- might it be feasible to have a TL, with a POD after 1850, where Japan and China become military allies instead of rivals? For instance, if Japan suffers similar defeats to those which China suffered in the Opium Wars IOTL, with similarly unequal treaties forced upon it by the Western Powers at the same stage? ITTL, both Qing China and Imperial Japan ally with each other for mutual support in their modernisation efforts, forging a military alliance to throw off the shackles of Western Imperialism. The Meiji Japanese support the Boxer Rebellion, allowing it to succeed ITTL; and the Russians' attempt to mount an incursion into the Liaodong Peninsula as IOTL's Russo-Japanese War is defeated by a Japanese and Chinese coalition (maybe even including Korea, if you want to avoid screwing them in the process ITTL).
Territory-wise, it isn't a huge wank- the Chinese regain Outer Manchuria, Taiwan and Mongolia, Korea remains intact and avoids annexation, and Japan gains Sakhalin and keeps hold of the Germans' Pacific island territories after WW1- possibly gaining the Philippines, and maybe even Hawaii as well. But economically, and geopolitically, it is definitely a wank. None of them get involved in WW2, except through lend-lease schemes in the same way as the USA did IOTL prior to Pearl Harbor (which, of course, never happens ITTL without sanctions imposed after OTL's Sino-Japanese Wars). Both Japan and China definitely become permanent members of the UN Security Council ITTL, and by the present day, the economic and military might of the Eastern Powers could well exceed that of the Western Powers (even if the Soviet Union/Russia is counted among them). Could TTL's genuine Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere become as powerful as NATO, or even more powerful than them? Maybe...
Territory-wise, it isn't a huge wank- the Chinese regain Outer Manchuria, Taiwan and Mongolia, Korea remains intact and avoids annexation, and Japan gains Sakhalin and keeps hold of the Germans' Pacific island territories after WW1- possibly gaining the Philippines, and maybe even Hawaii as well. But economically, and geopolitically, it is definitely a wank. None of them get involved in WW2, except through lend-lease schemes in the same way as the USA did IOTL prior to Pearl Harbor (which, of course, never happens ITTL without sanctions imposed after OTL's Sino-Japanese Wars). Both Japan and China definitely become permanent members of the UN Security Council ITTL, and by the present day, the economic and military might of the Eastern Powers could well exceed that of the Western Powers (even if the Soviet Union/Russia is counted among them). Could TTL's genuine Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere become as powerful as NATO, or even more powerful than them? Maybe...
SunDeep
Banned
Well, at this early stage after the POD, China isn't that much stronger than IOTL, and the Western powers will initially be strengthened in the Far East relative to OTL, emboldened by their early success in forcing similar treaties upon the Japanese as well. As a result, the Western Powers' treaty negotiators will push harder, imposing treaties upon China ITTL which are even more unequal than those of OTL. If anything, the Boxer Rebellion (or an analogous rebellion to it) will be even more likely to occur ITTL than it was IOTL, perhaps earlier, with a larger initial force of 'Boxer' rebels which will be able to call upon far greater levels of public support.
[1]Koryŏ did not control the Liaodong Peninsula. The Liaodong area remained a Yuan circuit, and Koryŏ men appointed there only had authority over Koryŏ people in the area. As such, barring any division of China into separate states, any post-Yuan Chinese state will seek to recover control over the peninsula in some way, and it will be successful barring some unforeseen catastrophe.
[2]While Ming control over Liaodong was indirect, the Jurchens there were still Ming tributaries, and the Ming at no time would have permitted the area to escape their control. Any Korean attempts to expand there would mean conflict with the Ming.
Just to be clear, the two scenarios that I'm proposing below have no relation to each other.
Yes, but the Liaoyang Circuit covered most of Manchuria. I'm talking specifically about Shenyang (Simyang), which included the Liaodong Peninsula, and only comprised of a very small portion of the entire circuit in question. Chungseon was initially appointed King/Prince of Shenyang in 1307, after he decided to relinquish the Goryeo throne in 1298, and was assigned to rule over both the Goryeo and Jurchen people living in the region. When he regained the throne in the following year, he temporarily ruled over both Goryeo and Shenyang, although when he decided to step down in 1313, he decided to hand control of Goryeo to the crown prince, while assigning one of his nephews to rule Shenyang.
The Yuan also used this split in authority to restrain the two rulers, and the ruler of Shenyang almost seized control of Goryeo in 1339 when he sent troops in order to take advantage of a transfer of power, although the Goryeo ruler (Chunghye) managed to score a narrow victory and retain his throne, while disputes continued until 1345, when the nephew died. Although Goryeo nobles nominally ruled Shenyang until 1388, when the last ruler died, actual control briefly passed to Goryeo again in the 1360s when Gongmin sent troops to Liaodong, forcing the Shenyang ruler to pledge allegiance to Goryeo, and functional control was finally disbanded in 1376 when the Ming occupied the region.
In other words, given that Goryeo retained (in)direct control over Liaodong from 1307-76, it might have been able to retain it if events in China had turned out differently.
I also never stated that China would eventually be unified if Goryeo attempts to seize Liaodong, as it would have been impossible for Korea to directly confront a unified China.
The Jurchens paid tribute to both the Ming and Joseon, and the eastern borders had generally been left ambiguous due to the former's fragmentation. As a result, "Manchuria" as a whole remained relatively undefined, and in particular, Joseon's borders did not even become finalized until Sejong sent troops to the northern regions in 1433 and 1443. The expeditions were a culmination of Korea's gradual expansion for over 500 years, as Manchuria's southern borders had initially stretched from modern-day Pyongyang to Wonsan.
In other words, while the Ming would almost certainly retain Liaodong, China and Korea could have formed an alliance in order to seize Jurchen territories, after assuming that both states had enough resources to carry out significant expeditions, with the easternmost portions (including, but not limited to, areas along the coastline) going to the latter.
Yes, but the Liaoyang Circuit covered most of Manchuria. I'm talking specifically about Shenyang (Simyang), which included the Liaodong Peninsula, and only comprised of a very small portion of the entire circuit in question. Chungseon was initially appointed King/Prince of Shenyang in 1307, after he decided to relinquish the Goryeo throne in 1298, and was assigned to rule over both the Goryeo and Jurchen people living in the region. When he regained the throne in the following year, he temporarily ruled over both Goryeo and Shenyang, although when he decided to step down in 1313, he decided to hand control of Goryeo to the crown prince, while assigning one of his nephews to rule Shenyang.
The Yuan also used this split in authority to restrain the two rulers, and the ruler of Shenyang almost seized control of Goryeo in 1339 when he sent troops in order to take advantage of a transfer of power, although the Goryeo ruler (Chunghye) managed to score a narrow victory and retain his throne, while disputes continued until 1345, when the nephew died. Although Goryeo nobles nominally ruled Shenyang until 1388, when the last ruler died, actual control briefly passed to Goryeo again in the 1360s when Gongmin sent troops to Liaodong, forcing the Shenyang ruler to pledge allegiance to Goryeo, and functional control was finally disbanded in 1376 when the Ming occupied the region.
In other words, given that Goryeo retained (in)direct control over Liaodong from 1307-76, it might have been able to retain it if events in China had turned out differently.
I also never stated that China would eventually be unified if Goryeo attempts to seize Liaodong, as it would have been impossible for Korea to directly confront a unified China.
The Jurchens paid tribute to both the Ming and Joseon, and the eastern borders had generally been left ambiguous due to the former's fragmentation. As a result, "Manchuria" as a whole remained relatively undefined, and in particular, Joseon's borders did not even become finalized until Sejong sent troops to the northern regions in 1433 and 1443. The expeditions were a culmination of Korea's gradual expansion for over 500 years, as Manchuria's southern borders had initially stretched from modern-day Pyongyang to Wonsan.
In other words, while the Ming would almost certainly retain Liaodong, China and Korea could have formed an alliance in order to seize Jurchen territories, after assuming that both states had enough resources to carry out significant expeditions, with the easternmost portions (including, but not limited to, areas along the coastline) going to the latter.
Hmm, I'm not seeing any evidence in Chinese sources for this. I see the part where the Koryŏ king (王昛) becomes Prince of Sim/yang in Juan 22 of the History of Yuan. But I don't see anything about him getting any additional territory or even control over any people in the area. And I'm looking at Juan 59, and it doesn't say anything about Shenyang becoming part of Koryŏ as a territory.
So I don't see anything about Liaodong coming under Koryŏ control, just indications that Liaodong was administered by some Koryŏ people (but not 王昛, whose identity I have yet to uncover), basically as civil governors. If the Koryŏ kings were governors of Shenyang, that doesn't mean that Koryŏ kings were rulers of Shenyang, since it's still Yuan territory.
Good enough for me. Chosŏn would never take all Manchuria because the Ming would not give up Liaodong voluntarily, but the Ming probably wouldn't care what happens to the rest of Manchuria.
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It's kinda unfair to judge his reign by only the later part of it. Indeed, we can blame him for never bringing democracy back, which eventually hampered the progress he himself wanted and caused his downfall. But he only took that road because after 1878 the empire was at the brink of destruction that the empire cannot afford political squabbles and with foreign powers directly involved in Ottoman parliament democracy had become pretty much a scam anyway. Also Russia didn't want to be the only autocracy left in Europe, so he also took this step to appease them. Under his authoritarian rule, he resurrected the army previously obliterated by Russia, shifting the power center from Europe to Asia and developed the later in the pace never seen before. He also increased foreign investment, built infrastructures and modernized Ottoman education and economy as best he could. While he stopped democracy in the center, he encouraged it in the local level. He was so accommodative towards the Arabs, even considered changing the empire's official language to Arabic, which was what provoked the birth of modern Turkish nationalism. While he halted democracy at the center, he encouraged it on the local level, which is why the Turks could pick up democracy casually after decades of his despotism. And one of his most overkill achievement was how his terrible diplomatic hands repelled every foreign attempt to undermine the empire's sovereignty and even dismantle her. Everyone thought the empire was over in 1878, hence the "sickman" meme, instead of actually getting stronger. Under him, he actually dragged the empire from the brink of death and rebuild the army from scratch. Without the foundations he lied down, Attaturk could have never pulled what he did.
The liability against Ottoman reforms was capital. Ottoman Empire didn't have much in the way of resources before oil and was financially BSDM'd by capitulations and foreign debts. And for some reason, every assassination happened in the empire always took the most needed man for the empire's survival. Abdul Hamit escaped it only because he built an extensive secret service that later became the model for the current CIA. Could have just anyone done everything he did ?
With Chinese resource, geography and authoritarian political culture, a Chinese Abdul Hamit would be unstoppable.
I think the issue is that "Shenyang" was clearly defined as a specific area at the time, and the territorial dimensions were probably explained elsewhere (possibly within the geographic section, which would also have provided details on ethnic compositions), making it essentially redundant for the historians compiling the text to clarify within the main sections what the territory in question essentially entailed. Given that all of the independent sources I've consulted tend to be consistent on what exactly "Shenyang" consisted of (specifically Liaodong, Liaoyang, and the vicinity of the Yalu/Amrok River), the territory most likely had been definitively laid out in writing, possibly in a subsidiary source.
In addition, both the History of Yuan and Goryeosa specify that the title was initially created due to Chengzong's (Temür Khan) gratitude towards Chungseon, along with possibly restraining Hong Bok-won (a Goryeo general who had defected to the Mongols in 1231). Given that Ogodei initially assigned Hong to Donggyeong, then later as an administrator within Liaoyang and Shenyang, it's possible that the title assumed by Chungseon stems from this one. Also, the sources indicate that the ruler of Shenyang, specifically Wang Go, often wielded significant influence over Goryeo, as he reported directly to the Yuan court about Goryeo affairs during political turmoil, in addition to sending numerous petitions to China in order to become the ruler of Goryeo, although this was never accomplished. Meanwhile, within Goryeo, control shifted back and forth among three monarchs at the time, each of whom was deposed and reinstated again in a chaotic fashion, and two of them were exiled to remote places within China, mostly due to Wang Go's political strategies.
In other words, given that Wang Go wielded a disproportionate influence over Goryeo, despite only being assigned to Shenyang, he was probably more than just a titular ruler.
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What "independent sources"?
The History of Yuan doesn't mention Hong Pokwŏn at any time in the Chengzong annals, though I could understand this with a little bit of reading between the lines. Instead, the text says Wuzong was the one who came up with the Shenyang title. The geography section of the text, juan 59, ends its discussion of the Shenyang lu (路), whatever that translates to, after 1297. It mentions Hong Pok-wŏn's administration there. But it doesn't mention any of the Koryŏ kings. And geographically, it has nothing more specific than saying Shenyang used to be Yilou land. Liaoyang is stated as a separate lu. So while the geographical dimensions of Shenyang are less important to me (okay, it's somewhere in Liaodong, fine), there's nothing in the History of Yuan which describes any sort of Koryŏ control over Shenyang, and finishes off with Hong Pok-wŏn. As far as the average Liaodong-er is concerned, nothing there indicates to me that it was physically controlled by Koryŏ princes or kings. Seems titular to me. The Koryŏ princes can have important influence in Koryŏ with the title Prince of Shenyang without actually needing to rule Shenyang.
I meant Korean sources outside of Wikipedia. I didn't think that it was necessary to translate them, given that only the place names would have been relevant.
My mistake, I meant the Hong clan. The general was executed in 1258, 17 years before Chungseon (Wang Won) was even born, although Hong Bok-won's descendants continued to retain influence in the region. In any case, the fact that a prior administration existed around Liaodong before Goryeo princes were eventually assigned there suggests that informal rule did exist, although there's no doubt that they were seen as regional governors by the Yuan court, and most likely remained under the Liaoyang Circuit's supervision.
Even if Goryeo nobles never managed to directly rule Shenyang, the fact that they were specifically assigned to the region by the Yuan court (as opposed to nominal claims based on loose territorial ambitions), along with functioning as de facto rulers during political turmoil within Goryeo, suggests that the Yuan was willing to allow relatively marginal princes to influence specific political policies. The fact that various Goryeo aristocrats also openly favored Wang Go as a possible successor also suggests a relatively complicated situation, while the general Bayan (Merkid) was later willing to supply troops to Wang Go with the intent of overthrowing Chunghye, suggesting a high level of confidence. Given that there were no repercussions for the Prince of Shenyang afterward, it's likely that he was more than just a prince, as he could have been exiled, similar to what happened to Prince Deokheung in 1364 after an abortive attempt to oust Gongmin militarily with backing from the Yuan court, if not outright executed for attempting to plan high treason.
Regardless, most of Liaodong had been composed of Goryeo, Balhae (ethnic), or Jurchen individuals by the mid-14th century, and if China had not been unified soon after the Yuan's collapse, it would have been likely for Goryeo to assert direct influence over the region, as opposed to a largely indirect one through Shenyang under the Yuan's influence.
All I was originally arguing about was if the Liaodong area was controlled by Koryŏ. I think I've shown that there's no Chinese information to show that Koryŏ nobles controlled the Liaodong area as a separate fief outside of the Yuan Empire, but served only as local administrators within Yuan territory. It is a sort of indirect control, in a way. If you have other sources based on publicly-available historical sources (Yuanshi, Koryŏsa, etc) that state otherwise, I'd like to see them. Otherwise, it looks to me like they were just local governors.
Not really. Give China Mongolia, Tuva, Taiwan, and the areas historically disputed with Central Asia, South Asia, and Burma, while giving Korea Japan and boom! You're done.
This is impossible though after 1850 I'll grant you, however.
SunDeep
Banned
If you're looking for a bigger challenge, what about an ATL wanking China, Japan AND Korea? Possible?
Likely ASB unless the Koreas ascertain for themselves portions of both Inner AND Outer Manchuria, and that itself may be ASB.
problem for the core idea is that while wanking China doesn't nessisarily mean screwing Japan, its a tougher sell to wank Japan without screwing China.
Have China get a strong land based army and a defensive navy, and push Japan onto a Naval track controling the western pacific, might be the least problematic way to do it.
Have China get a strong land based army and a defensive navy, and push Japan onto a Naval track controling the western pacific, might be the least problematic way to do it.
The only way that Korea could retain direct control over Japan is if the PoD was set before 108 BC or so, which would be incredibly difficult to work out due to the extreme lack of extant sources available. It would have been much more reasonable for Korea to attempt to retain Manchuria, mostly due to various historical, cultural, and logistical reasons.
Not really. As I stated earlier, China was already stretched to its limits in many respects IOTL, and Korea retaining its possessions in (or expanding into) Manchuria would have meant significantly curtailing China's influence in Northeast Asia. It's also telling that Japan first decided to target Korea when attempting to expand outside of the archipelago.
I don't see why Korea would want Outer Manchuria (which could have been defined differently) unless the PoD occurred before AD 500, as the region remained sparsely populated due to an inhospitable climate. It's also important to note that Korea (with borders after 1443) would have more than quadrupled its territory just after taking Inner Manchuria.