AHC: Viable Third Party for 2012

Perhaps with surviving Progressive Party it could be possible. But probably you need POD before 1900.
 
Given that in recent times, US Presidential elections have required the monetary outlay, manpower mobilization, and logistical acumen normally reserved for major military operations, I'm going to agree with Lalli on this one. For most of the 20th century, all third-party efforts actually accomplished was to divide the opposition. Look at the Green Party's impact on Democratic votes, or the TEA Party's impact on the GOP.

I think the most likely recent candidates for third party status would've been Ross Perot's Reform Party in the 1990s (assuming somebody could keep Mr. Perot sedated and / or convince him to follow advice from his experts), or a Ron Paul third party in the 2000s, but I honestly can't think of a good PoD for either of them.

Before that, it would almost have to be Roosevelt and the Progressives, but again, I can't think of a decently plausible P.O.D.
 
Republican party goes to the convention. Some candidate who never ran and no one even voted for gets the nod. Libertarians and Constitution party have a shot at getting disgruntled Republican votes. Anderson levels are possible.
 
House impeaches Obama over use of force in Libya. (Two counts: 1. Violation of War Powers Act by not briefing Congress after the 60 day deadline. 2. Lying to Congress about continuing operations.) Senate refuses to hear the case. Senate Republican leaders criticize their House counterparts. Some House Democrats who voted against action break away from the democratic Party.
Potential results include:
Pro-Intervention Republican third party challenge (Libertarian, Constitution, or Independent)
Anti-Intervention Democrat third party challenge (Green, Peace and Freedom, or Independent)
Unity Anti-Intervention ticket
More than one of the above.

Alternate Scenario 1:
The Duelfer and Kay reports document many of America's intelligence failures in the war with Iraq, plus Iraq's lack of WMD. War opponents point out that not only did Bush support the war, ignoring the intelligence saying otherwise, but John Kerry did as well. As a result, third party candidates gain traction and support. After a close race, third party supporters vow to fight on. Several victories are won by third party congressional candidates (including the high profile defeat of Nancy Pelosi by Cindy Sheehan), and several candidates switching parties (Notably Ron Paul, though Cynthia McKinney lost her reelection bid in 2006 after switching to the Greens). Among the 2012 choices include the Libertarian Paul/Johnson ticket, the Green Kucinich/Stein ticket, the Constitution ticket of Jones/Goode and the Peace and Freedom coalition of Sheehan/McKinney.

Alternate scenario 2:
President Gore somehow passes public financing of elections. Third parties are major beneficiaries.
 
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I think Ross Perot is your best bet, and even that's pushing it. Say he doesn't drop out and rejoin the campaign in 92. He does somewhat better than in OTL, and forms the *Reform Party afterwards. When 96 rolls around, he supplies the money and organization, but someone else is the candidate (ASB, maybe). He gets around 18% of the vote and maybe a few electoral votes. Thereafter, the Reform Party continues to see some success at the state and Congressional level, and screws up the electoral calculus in some presidential elections.

Under the right circumstances, you might even see a Reform presidential candidate coming in 2nd place by 2012. Say that the Jeri Ryan weirdness in Illinois doesn't unfold, thus Barack Obama never emerges as a national figure, Hillary Clinton is elected in 2008, Romney doesn't go for the Republican nomination in '12, and you have Clinton vs. Gingrich (or whoever) vs. Reform candidate (Colin Powell?) last year. That might be an interesting race.
 
The latest you could really get this is with a POD in the thirties given how the SLP back then was the last real chance we had for a new third major party before FDR took a lot of the wind out of their sails. Also if at some point the US adopted a voting system more friendly to third parties like MMP or Instant Runnoff theres much more chance of a powerful third party. A big problem right now for third parties today is that First Past The Post voting makes things incredibly bad for them in particular.
 
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