AHC:V-J Day before V-E day.

[Tales Weaver]

With pod after 1939, make V-J day happen before V-E day.

Condition:

• Limited Usage of nukes is allowed. (Don't drop it on capital.)
• Most importantly, No ASB.

Bonus points for:

• Japan stays as constitutional monarchy post-war

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Speed up the Bomb.
Have someone other than Lyman Briggs in charge of the US project from the time Roosevelt set it up, and they wouldn't have spun their wheels for 2 years accomplishing little.

Heck, just have him pass on to the committee the findings of the British MAUD committee, instead of shoving them in a safe and ignoring them (!!!!) and you could have a Bomb ready before VE day. (Although just that won't get VJ day first)

Speed up the program 6 months, which is quite doable, and the first 2 bombs are ready in Feb instead of August. The first bombs are going to be dropped on Germany - but that won' t get them to surrender immediately.
Have bombs be dropped on Japan as soon as Iwo Jima is available, and Japan could surrender (barely) sooner than Germany. Both at the beginning of May, say.

 

[Fearless Leader]

A more competent American submarine arm might have been able to bring this scenario about but you'd need a number things to fall their way. This possibility has been discussed multiple times on this board.

A less commonly discussed possibility is a change to the USAAF's doctrine on aerial mining. In OTL the powers that be were steadfastly against it for various reasons and it took a considerable degree of effort to get them to sign on to the aerial mining efforts that took place in OTL from March 1945 onward. Post-war studies later revealed that these mining operations were incredibly effective. Perhaps, in TTL, for whatever reason (say they get some overly optimistic reports from German attempts early in the war) the USAAF decides to invest earlier in aerial mining. This would likely further complicate the Japanese logistical situation not only in their outlying possessions but around the Home islands.

The Home Islands began to be bombed consistently from June 1944 onward by small groups of B-29 bombers began to operate from forward bases in China. What if instead of engaging in generally ineffective strategic bombing raids on their initial missions they had mined Japanese harbours? Though it's certainly likely that the Japanese would have developed countermeasures, the losses in shipping, time, and resources would have been tremendous. The commander of Japan's minesweeping efforts in OTL thought that had the American's OTL mining operations begun earlier the war would have been considerably shortened a conclusion with which the USSBS concurred in 1946.

 

[Draconis]

A more competent American submarine arm might have been able to bring this scenario about but you'd need a number things to fall their way. This possibility has been discussed multiple times on this board.

A less commonly discussed possibility is a change to the USAAF's doctrine on aerial mining. In OTL the powers that be were steadfastly against it for various reasons and it took a considerable degree of effort to get them to sign on to the aerial mining efforts that took place in OTL from March 1945 onward. Post-war studies later revealed that these mining operations were incredibly effective. Perhaps, in TTL, for whatever reason (say they get some overly optimistic reports from German attempts early in the war) the USAAF decides to invest earlier in aerial mining. This would likely further complicate the Japanese logistical situation not only in their outlying possessions but around the Home islands.

The Home Islands began to be bombed consistently from June 1944 onward by small groups of B-29 bombers began to operate from forward bases in China. What if instead of engaging in generally ineffective strategic bombing raids on their initial missions they had mined Japanese harbours? Though it's certainly likely that the Japanese would have developed countermeasures, the losses in shipping, time, and resources would have been tremendous. The commander of Japan's minesweeping efforts in OTL thought that had the American's OTL mining operations begun earlier the war would have been considerably shortened a conclusion with which the USSBS concurred in 1946.

Yes. Fix the torpedo problem earlier and then conduct the submarine campaign from Hawaii staging through Midway to top up fuel and food and than patrol the shipping lanes in the seas around Japan.

Fly B-29s from Alaska to mine the shallow waters around Japan's Northern ports. Shitty weather but if they could fly Lockheed Harpoons across the North Pacific then high flying B-29s could sure do it.
They descend rapidly down to lay the mines then lightly loaded at that point they can climb rapidly back up greatly reducing the chance of fighter interception.

Keep a B-29 wing in China to fly similar missions to mine the approaches to the Southern ports and the Inland Sea. Or as many as the Hump airlift can support. Don't drop bombs near the Emperor and maybe you don't provoke an Operation Ichi-go.

Sink the tankers and freighters by submarine starting in 1942 followed by the B-29 sowed mines in mid 1944 and this will cumulatively greatly reduce the ability of Japan to continue the war. Whether the effects of famine caused by the loss of food being imported will force an earlier Japanese surrender before the atomic bombs are completed is difficult to predict being how that would depend on the effectiveness of the American blockade and the ruthlessness of the military government of Japan.

 

[Magnum]

British sink the German fleet in Norway, convince the French fleet to join them and cripple the Italian fleet harder than OTL. They also forego Greece and drive on to Tripoli instead. A large reserve of quality ground troops is now available, and will be deployed to Malaysia when the shit hits the fan. With the European Axis fleet crippled, a much, much larger Force Z can be sent as well.

When Pearl Harbor happens, the radar installation transmits the warning, and Adm. Kimmel orders the fleet to sail out west, incidentally saving it.

When Wake Island happens, the two American carriers have somehow arrived earlier, and are in position to ambush the two Japanese ones, sinking them.

In Malaya, the British/Commonwealth defeat the Japanese invasion.

Lastly, there's a series of attritional battles in the Duthc East Indies and Pacific that sees mass Allied casualties, but also Japanese ones.

With the East Indies still beyond their grasp and oil running out, the Japanese agree to a negotiated peace in '43.