AHC: USSR with top-tier GDP per capita and low Gini coefficient

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Sabot Cat, Apr 3, 2015.

  1. Sabot Cat A Trans Girl and Proud Of It

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    With a Point of Divergence no later than 1954, your challenge is to make the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) have a GDP at purchasing power parity per capita comparable to Norway, Switzerland, the United States or Canada in our timeline, and a Gini coefficient lower than 30, both by 2015. The USSR must control a minimum of 70% of its 22.4 million kmĀ² area, contain over 300 million citizens, and be in a world where a nuclear conflict hasn't taken place. Good luck!

    [​IMG]
     
  2. von kressenstein Banned

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    Thaw relations before they have a chance to become so cold

    say korea goes a year longer and the russians are forced to send in troops.. Things dont look good .. after Stalin dies. Khrushchev attempts to thaw relations with out the we will crush you speeches

    yes they have differences and dont always see eye to eye.. but instead of the full on cold war you get more cooperative rivalry. yes a boat load of things would have to change from each sides of rightous piousness..

    something along the lines of the postwar rebuilding efforts offer the central authorities to open up to private companies offering some level of private ownership .. IE the soviet economy becomes more open to investments.

    also all in all, the soviet economy was not so bad, in reality people made decent wages between 55-80 difference is the way things are portrayed.. different cost levels.. so many things were covered by the government. how to put this into real cost i am not sure.

    US salaries are higher because you tend to pay for a lot more things such as healthcare and housing ( we all pay for this one.. ) and high insurance rates and other things..

    but i would think opening the soviet economy somewhat
    would do the trick
     
  3. pattersonautobody Well-Known Member

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    You need a POD going back to the NEP. It never ends, neither Trotsky or Stalin take power, the USSR is more of a one-party market socialist country waiting for the time in which it is "ready" for true communism. During WW2, Germany does not employ the Sickle Cut and they impale themselves on France, and UK, France, and Germany wear themselves out the next few years. The USSR comes in the last second and occupies Poland, part of Germany, and Finland.

    The USSR has the second most powerful military in the world, behind the US, and their economy develops into something along the lines of Canada.
     
  4. Sabot Cat A Trans Girl and Proud Of It

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    Sounds like it could work, but I don't know if that POD would be sufficient to achieve all of this.

    I think the NEP would be a prudent way of accomplishing a more fiscally solvent, but who would carry it out after Lenin?
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2015
  5. pattersonautobody Well-Known Member

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    You would need a ton of guys to die I suppose and a real sell-out to continue the NEP, or Lenin to live longer.
     
  6. Hashoosh Sigmarite

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    Lenin wasn't in favour of continuing the NEP, you know. He hated it as much as the rest of the mainstream Bolsheviks, seeing it as a step backwards from the true path and a necessary evil to transition from War Communism to the planned model.

    To get the NEP to become the party's preferred means of governing the economy you're going to need a POD that either radically alters Lenin's beliefs or that sees a different group of Left Wing Authoritarians seize power from the Provisional Government in October 1917. It would be much simpler to have Stalin die of a health complication sometime in the early part of his tenure, and given the man's egregiously unhealthy lifestyle of booze and tobacco combined with all night sessions, I'm surprised the bastard lived into the 1940s, let alone the 1950s.

    After Stalin dies, have some of the Right wing part of the Bolshevik party that were defeated following Lenin's death and the ascension of Stalin take power. I think Bukharin was on the Right-side of the party, and he might be interested in continuing the NEP as the model by which the USSR can achieve true Communism.
     
  7. Dunning Kruger Often Wrong But Never in Doubt

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    As someone who believes the Soviet Union was structurally flawed at birth both in theory and in practice, I dont believe this is possible. You would need a whole different cast of characters at inception, no world war II, and the country to "pull a China" sometime before 1970.

    Wait, I thought of something.

    The Soviet Union actually loses to the Nazis in WWII but the allies still win sometime before 1950. In rebuilding, the Soviet Union is rebuilt in a way analogous to Japan post WWII. It retains "communism" but it resembles modern China in its revival more than what existed pre WWII with all the pre-World War 2 leaders gone from the scene. The communist political system with hybrid central planning and market driven economics focused on exports parallels Japan's post wwii revival and China's post 1978 emergence but with a 1950ish start.
     
  8. Hashoosh Sigmarite

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    If the Soviets lose to the Nazis during WWII, it's going to get very ugly for them in the Nazi-occupied zones. The Allies are going to have to win pretty soon after the Soviets are defeated for the liberation to be in time, or else the country is going to be seriously mauled post war by the Hunger Plan and other such Nazi plans.
     
  9. Sabot Cat A Trans Girl and Proud Of It

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    In 1923, he stated that it should be followed for one to two more decades, or until universal literacy was achieved [*]. So that'd be 1933-1943 for the former, the 1950s for the latter.

    You'd be failing the Gini coefficient criteria, as China's economic policies has given it above average income inequality.

    That sounds very promising.
     
  10. Edward_Elric Socialchemist Kicked

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    I suppose one way this could be done is to have a revolution or two (or more) succeed elsewhere in the industrialized world before the onset of any WWII analogue. The most obvious example here on AH.com is J-B's Reds! TL, but there also the Bayonets Won't Cut Coal and Wir Sind Spartakus! TLs depicting British and German revolutions post-WWI.

    In any of these three scenarios, the USSR will have at least one trading partner to rely on for technical and economic assistance in early development, as well as a reduced siege mentality (early on at least). And they'll be in a much better position to bring more nations than OTL into the socialist sphere, assuming whichever ally they have manages to stay afloat and help propagate the new system.

    But even if another industrial state undergoes revolution, there are still plenty of opportunities for the USSR to screw up its development. IOTL the Soviets were really stubborn in fitting their model onto nations in their sphere. So the emergence of a strong industrialized red country containing a governmental/economic structure that contrasts with Marxism-Leninism, can just as easily become yet another geopolitical rival a la the Mao's PRC. It's still possible for the industrialized counterpart to have plentiful influence on the USSR's internal development, but the details will vary with each given scenario.
     
  11. Dunning Kruger Often Wrong But Never in Doubt

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    Germany and Japan were seriously mauled and they rebuilt. It was because they were so utterly defeated that the old guard was pushed aside creating an opportunity for a whole new system to emerge. So it's a matter of degree. Of course, in this process, the USSR probably is destroyed and a whole new Russia emerges. But then, read the first part of my post...;)
     
  12. Wendell Wendell

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    This is not really possible. Maybe, MAYBE having Beria rule successfully after Stalin could get you much of the way there, but even that is unlikely.
     
  13. Dunning Kruger Often Wrong But Never in Doubt

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    I dont think so. He might have set the foundation for a more successful Soviet Union than what transpired. But achieve a level of economic success called for in the OP? It might not technically be ASB but I would bet that the probability that Alien Space Bats actually exist is higher than the probability of Beria accomplishing this.
     
  14. Wendell Wendell

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    That's a very good point. Still, what plausible Soviet leader is likelier to move the regime into this sort of direction?
     
  15. Sabot Cat A Trans Girl and Proud Of It

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    Well, perhaps a Gorbachev-like reformer? Is there any names that stand out in this line?

    Also, would there be a medical POD for keeping Lenin alive longer? Stalin lived until he was 74, and if Lenin lived just as long, you could have him stick around until 1945 to continue implementing his New Economic Policy.
     
  16. Hashoosh Sigmarite

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    I meant that post-Nazi USSR is going to be way worse off than post-allied Germany or Japan. Because of the whole genocide business.
     
  17. Hashoosh Sigmarite

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    He doesn't have to 'accomplish' anything so much as put the machine of liberalisation economically (and perhaps politically) in motion, which he apparently planned on doing. Contrasted with the old guard, who would have continued absolute planning IIRC (guys like Molotov)

    That would give the USSR 60 years to do it, and while I agree the probability of it happening is low, if everything goes right they have a lot of advantages Deng's China did not, and it's only been what, 30 years for the Chinese? Double that time period, and with a far smaller population and a better starting situation, they could maybe do it.

    Not that I'm saying I think that's what would happen, I'm just thinking of if things go really nice for the USSR post-Stalin and post-Beria reform.
     
  18. von kressenstein Banned

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    I got you one upped.. say china emerges .. soviets take the backseat to the massive Chinese populations screeming for revolutions.. support for Vietnam.. korea .. America looses both.. China cuddles up to soviet union... America concerned.. Nixon goes to Moscow .. and well the soviet union gets the USA blessing .. state controlled capitalism thrives .. everyone makes money .. well at least the oligarchs involved.. the rest.. well.. at least they are not bread lines in Moscow and stuff
     
  19. Dunning Kruger Often Wrong But Never in Doubt

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    I never said it was likely.:D

    When you are dealing with unlikely scenarios you need to get creative!
     
  20. Dunning Kruger Often Wrong But Never in Doubt

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    My issue with this is that just about everyone who had a brain was either killed or so thoroughly scarred by the purges in the late 30s that nobody has the intellectual capacity to actually do what's necessary - at least at the higher echelons of the Soviet government. And Beria was one of the primary instigators so its not as if scientists and bureaucrats are going to stick their neck out with him. Once the purges occurred you needed to eliminate the upper reaches of the Soviet apparatus for the next generation to freely initiate the needed reforms. So, I dont think Beria can do a whole lot unless he is an economics genius who purges everyone on the Politburo and Central Committee. The Nazi's would have done just that...