The US GDP per capita was already around $15,000 dollars per head in 1945. Even if America flatlines from 1945 to the present, it won’t be third world.
AHC US Third World Country In Terms Of Living Standards?
- Thread starter Omar04
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But how do you get all the Americans into the reservations along side the natives
There are lots of third world countries with plenty of mineral wealth, and don't benefit from it internally due to massive levels of corruption.
hence the corruption and other parts of the equation.. the USA has been moderately lucky in the one thing it has done has been at least try to have some sort of a middle class .. hence why I think the pod would have to be quite early in history. The USA was founded on the idea of self determination and success, for the most part land was given away to get people to go settle places and build things. In effect you have to completely change the idea of what the USA is and was to people and at the same time make the oligarchs and the government a lot more screwed up then they were/are
The most effective way to make the United States a third world country is by a nuclear war.
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What about US territories in the Caribbean? Puerto Rico only got democratic rights in 1947, a change in history could have resulted in the US ignoring its development. It would have an HDI lower than 0.65. Right now its heavily in debt and had a high poverty rate, which could have been exacerbated by negligence.
I think it’s possible without nuclear war. This may sound ASB, but what about if the Red Scare went really, really wrong? As far as POD goes, let’s say McCarthy doesn’t go after the Army.
First a mini-lesson on HDI. It’s an index made of income, education, and life expectancy. I’ll cover these in turn below. In 1950, by my calculations, HDI would have been roughly .700, so .650 is a slight decrease.
McCarthy is never discredited and becomes an anti-Communist crusader with support in both parties. During the 1950s, the Smith Act is used against anyone to the left of Richard Nixon, and hundreds of thousands of suspected Communists are jailed. By 1960, the Democrats divide over civil rights issues, nominating a strongly anti-communist and pro-segregation candidate (Allan Shivers perhaps, or someone similar). He wins, and the US takes a hard and permanent turn to the right as the result of massive voter suppression.
The US pursues an extreme isolationist policy; it withdraws from the UN and NATO and stops all immigration. For decades, the US is nearly always involved in a proxy war with the Soviets, and defense spending takes up about 90% of the federal budget (possible due to cuts in education and health, see below). This has a strong economic toll: the US has gone through several bouts of debt crises and hyperinflation. In 2019, the US has a per capita GDP of 15,000 OTL dollars (same as 1950 adjusted for inflation).
When the Vietnam War (or its ATL equivalent) rolls around, protests break out at universities. After a while, universities with suspected subversive activity (basically any non-Christian university) are defunded and shuttered. The former faculty are jailed, blacklisted, or go abroad. The teaching of evolution is banned nationwide (it was banned in most of the south in the 1950s), preventing most medical research. By 2019, only a small percentage of Americans go to college, and those who do are limited to either engineering or religious studies.
The quality of medical care gradually deteriorates as fewer doctors graduate. In the mid-1950s, vaccination campaigns are disbanded, as propaganda scares the public into thinking they are a Communist plot (totally farfetched I know). As a consequence, infectious diseases like polio and measles are scourges even in the present day. Faith healing becomes the main form of medical care. By 2019, life expectancy is 10 years lower than it was in 1950: 56 for males, 61 for females.
Meanwhile, segregationists double-down on their rhetoric, implementing apartheid in America. Initially, this starts in the south, but as unrest rises in the northern cities in the 1960s, similar laws are passed there. By 2019, Black people have no legal rights and live in appalling conditions.
Women don’t fare much better. Abortion and birth control pills remain banned in 2019, keeping women barefoot and pregnant. Birth rates rise dramatically and the baby boom never ends. By 2019, the population of the US stands at 500 million. The only thing preventing the population from being 600 million is the near-constant state of war.
By 2019, the United States resembles OTL South Africa, but worse. It’s not bad if you’re white and male, but it’s hell on earth for everyone else.
First a mini-lesson on HDI. It’s an index made of income, education, and life expectancy. I’ll cover these in turn below. In 1950, by my calculations, HDI would have been roughly .700, so .650 is a slight decrease.
McCarthy is never discredited and becomes an anti-Communist crusader with support in both parties. During the 1950s, the Smith Act is used against anyone to the left of Richard Nixon, and hundreds of thousands of suspected Communists are jailed. By 1960, the Democrats divide over civil rights issues, nominating a strongly anti-communist and pro-segregation candidate (Allan Shivers perhaps, or someone similar). He wins, and the US takes a hard and permanent turn to the right as the result of massive voter suppression.
The US pursues an extreme isolationist policy; it withdraws from the UN and NATO and stops all immigration. For decades, the US is nearly always involved in a proxy war with the Soviets, and defense spending takes up about 90% of the federal budget (possible due to cuts in education and health, see below). This has a strong economic toll: the US has gone through several bouts of debt crises and hyperinflation. In 2019, the US has a per capita GDP of 15,000 OTL dollars (same as 1950 adjusted for inflation).
When the Vietnam War (or its ATL equivalent) rolls around, protests break out at universities. After a while, universities with suspected subversive activity (basically any non-Christian university) are defunded and shuttered. The former faculty are jailed, blacklisted, or go abroad. The teaching of evolution is banned nationwide (it was banned in most of the south in the 1950s), preventing most medical research. By 2019, only a small percentage of Americans go to college, and those who do are limited to either engineering or religious studies.
The quality of medical care gradually deteriorates as fewer doctors graduate. In the mid-1950s, vaccination campaigns are disbanded, as propaganda scares the public into thinking they are a Communist plot (totally farfetched I know). As a consequence, infectious diseases like polio and measles are scourges even in the present day. Faith healing becomes the main form of medical care. By 2019, life expectancy is 10 years lower than it was in 1950: 56 for males, 61 for females.
Meanwhile, segregationists double-down on their rhetoric, implementing apartheid in America. Initially, this starts in the south, but as unrest rises in the northern cities in the 1960s, similar laws are passed there. By 2019, Black people have no legal rights and live in appalling conditions.
Women don’t fare much better. Abortion and birth control pills remain banned in 2019, keeping women barefoot and pregnant. Birth rates rise dramatically and the baby boom never ends. By 2019, the population of the US stands at 500 million. The only thing preventing the population from being 600 million is the near-constant state of war.
By 2019, the United States resembles OTL South Africa, but worse. It’s not bad if you’re white and male, but it’s hell on earth for everyone else.
Make US political history resemble Argentine. No FDR, US undergoes a decline similar to Argentina post-1945.
Add some racial strife/Drama to the mix to generate more confusion.
2019 US is at OTL Argentine levels.
Add some racial strife/Drama to the mix to generate more confusion.
2019 US is at OTL Argentine levels.
Really like this post, reminds me of Drew's TL Fear, Loathing, And Gumbo On The Campaign Trail '72 and Rumsfieldia.
I think McCarthy was always running on borrowed time. He had a ton of dirt on him like Hoover's FBI files that would have hurt him sooner or later. Maybe Nixon adopts his policies for self gain and Eisenhower's heart attack disables him and effectively Nixon is president for the rest of his term or Eisenhower resigns outright. Perhaps Eisenhower's heart attack is more severe and Synder's error is realized too late.
"
But as Eisenhower’s chest pains persisted into the afternoon, an electrocardiograph was brought in and recorded an acute myocardial infarction, and at around 2 p.m. the president was finally rushed to the hospital. From his research into the delay, Lasby concludes that “Snyder mistook a coronary thrombosis for a gastrointestinal problem, waited for 10 hours before he recognized his mistake and called for help, and conducted an unremitting cover-up of his error for the rest of his life.”
"
https://www.ozy.com/flashback/president-eisenhowers-14-billion-heart-attack/65157
I think McCarthy was always running on borrowed time. He had a ton of dirt on him like Hoover's FBI files that would have hurt him sooner or later. Maybe Nixon adopts his policies for self gain and Eisenhower's heart attack disables him and effectively Nixon is president for the rest of his term or Eisenhower resigns outright. Perhaps Eisenhower's heart attack is more severe and Synder's error is realized too late.
"
But as Eisenhower’s chest pains persisted into the afternoon, an electrocardiograph was brought in and recorded an acute myocardial infarction, and at around 2 p.m. the president was finally rushed to the hospital. From his research into the delay, Lasby concludes that “Snyder mistook a coronary thrombosis for a gastrointestinal problem, waited for 10 hours before he recognized his mistake and called for help, and conducted an unremitting cover-up of his error for the rest of his life.”
"
https://www.ozy.com/flashback/president-eisenhowers-14-billion-heart-attack/65157
marathag
Banned
There's a lot of that in this post.
A USA gone that far off the rails in the 1950s would have started WWIII with the Soviets by 1960
And isolationism/leaving NATO doesn’t fit with fighting proxy wars everywhere.
Champ Clark is chosen by the Democrats in 1912 and with the Republican split is elected President.
When WW1 breaks out, he refuses to intervene in the stock market and there is a major crash. The US does not support the Entente despite having more business interests there and the Germans go on to win, dominating European markets and causing Berlin, not New York, to supplant London. Meanwhile the Socialists gain most progressive support as recovery from recession is sluggish and both parties become dominated by conservatives. Republicans win back the White House and Congress and increase tariffs, pass quotas cutting immigration to next to nothing, and absolutely do not create an income tax.
Instability follows economic stagnation and under Harding (1916-1924) the US reaches new lows in corruption and cronyism. Japan and/or an isolationist China closes the US off from East Asian markets as they fail to compete with German-dominated industry in Europe. Far from a roaring twenties we get only slight recovery until the Berlin stock exchange crashes in 1929 bringing the economy into freefall.
In 1932 the Socialists are elected and despite assurances they will not violate the Constitution a civil war erupts from a scared wealthy class. The war drags on for years inconclusively until eventually the Democratic-Republicans come out on top. They are constantly in conflict with labor unions and tensions simmer. Racial strife breaks out on top of this.
A socialist/civil rights/progressive alliance almost comes out on top in the 50s and seems palatable enough to the majority of the country, but Germany, worried for the fate of the American markets they now have a finger in, supports hardline reactionaries- the successors to the 1920s version of the KKK- over the democratically elected process, disregarding the results of the election for the second time in mere decades. A guerilla movement of American socialists fights an ongoing war against the authoritarian state that emerges but is never able to seize power.
By the modern day the United States finds itself a pawn of German and Chinese (the two largest economies) economic interests as both a captive market and a state to extract resources from. Much more developed Canada receives a constant stream of the best and brightest Americans seeking a better life, alongside Britain and Germany. Racial and political divisions are deep seated and impossible to set aside. America is still not as poor as some formerly colonized countries, but like many Latin American countries foreign intervention and internal strife prevent them from reaching their full potential.
When WW1 breaks out, he refuses to intervene in the stock market and there is a major crash. The US does not support the Entente despite having more business interests there and the Germans go on to win, dominating European markets and causing Berlin, not New York, to supplant London. Meanwhile the Socialists gain most progressive support as recovery from recession is sluggish and both parties become dominated by conservatives. Republicans win back the White House and Congress and increase tariffs, pass quotas cutting immigration to next to nothing, and absolutely do not create an income tax.
Instability follows economic stagnation and under Harding (1916-1924) the US reaches new lows in corruption and cronyism. Japan and/or an isolationist China closes the US off from East Asian markets as they fail to compete with German-dominated industry in Europe. Far from a roaring twenties we get only slight recovery until the Berlin stock exchange crashes in 1929 bringing the economy into freefall.
In 1932 the Socialists are elected and despite assurances they will not violate the Constitution a civil war erupts from a scared wealthy class. The war drags on for years inconclusively until eventually the Democratic-Republicans come out on top. They are constantly in conflict with labor unions and tensions simmer. Racial strife breaks out on top of this.
A socialist/civil rights/progressive alliance almost comes out on top in the 50s and seems palatable enough to the majority of the country, but Germany, worried for the fate of the American markets they now have a finger in, supports hardline reactionaries- the successors to the 1920s version of the KKK- over the democratically elected process, disregarding the results of the election for the second time in mere decades. A guerilla movement of American socialists fights an ongoing war against the authoritarian state that emerges but is never able to seize power.
By the modern day the United States finds itself a pawn of German and Chinese (the two largest economies) economic interests as both a captive market and a state to extract resources from. Much more developed Canada receives a constant stream of the best and brightest Americans seeking a better life, alongside Britain and Germany. Racial and political divisions are deep seated and impossible to set aside. America is still not as poor as some formerly colonized countries, but like many Latin American countries foreign intervention and internal strife prevent them from reaching their full potential.
That didn't start overriding norms of national sovereignty until the 1990's IOTL. Not really a plausible POD at all.
Agreed - while there might be some locations in the USA that are relatively poor compared to the national US Average - in 3rd world countries the 'average' living conditions are often far worse. (Note: I've only been to Chicago, IL in the USA so my observations are based purely on that)
There are some places in the world that would remain worse than the US IMO even if the USA suffered a major nuclear exchange!