AHC: US/Russia Special Relationship

I was thinking about a POD around the time of the fall of the USSR, just to make it more difficult. Folks might think that's ASB, I understand, just thought I'd throw it out there and see what folks think.

Very vague ideas:
- Europe integrates more quickly and possibly pushes away from NATO in the process.
- China shuts down again around an alternate Paramount Leader succession.

I'm not certain it's possible. You have to shift the US away from a stance of treating the Cold War as a victory worth crowing about, and you need just the right kind of leaders in Russia as well (and no names spring to mind.)

But theoretically? Any takers?
 
I was thinking about a POD around the time of the fall of the USSR, just to make it more difficult. Folks might think that's ASB, I understand, just thought I'd throw it out there and see what folks think.

Very vague ideas:
- Europe integrates more quickly and possibly pushes away from NATO in the process.
- China shuts down again around an alternate Paramount Leader succession.

I'm not certain it's possible. You have to shift the US away from a stance of treating the Cold War as a victory worth crowing about, and you need just the right kind of leaders in Russia as well (and no names spring to mind.)

But theoretically? Any takers?
I don't think the Russians would be content to play second fiddle to the US.
 
I don't think the Russians would be content to play second fiddle to the US.

Certainly, it'd have to be a scenario where they feel respected. I'm not sure if even the US/UK special relationship is a good model to work off of. That often gives the appearance of the UK being more respected by the US than any other country, but still never really treated as an equal.

Isn't this what the later Tom Clancy Jack Ryan novels were about, especially The Bear and the Dragon?

Not very familiar with the Clancyverse. I'm guessing the US bails Russia out of some terrible situation and they thank us with tears in their eyes, right?:p
 
I'm not really sure how. The US-CANZUK special relationship works because our countries are so similar culturally and religiously, so it's easy for people in each country to see each other as friends and allies. With Russia, you've got nearly 46 years of hostility and very few cultural similarities.
 
Worse than that. Basically Ryan and the Russian President are old spy rivals turned allies. Imagine if George H.W. Bush was transported into his son's younger body and he and Putin were such pals that Russia joins NATO as it's being attacked by the oil-desperate Chinese. Of course, America rides in to save the day.
 
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Certainly, it'd have to be a scenario where they feel respected. I'm not sure if even the US/UK special relationship is a good model to work off of. That often gives the appearance of the UK being more respected by the US than any other country, but still never really treated as an equal.
Not very familiar with the Clancyverse. I'm guessing the US bails Russia out of some terrible situation and they thank us with tears in their eyes, right?:p
The UK isn't an equal though. None of the US' allies are. They're all junior partners and I can't see Russia being content with that role. They'reproud that they have an independent foreign policy and they're one of the countries with the size, resources and population to do it.:)
 
Worse than that. Basically Ryan and the Russian President are old spy rivals turned allies. Imagine if George H.W. Bush was transported into his son's younger body and he and Putin were such pals that Russia joins NATO as it's being attacked by the oil-desperate Chinese. Of course, America rides in to save the day.

My, my, my...

Speaking of bad media portrayals of this scenario, does anyone remember a Glasnost-era movie about fighter pilots that ends with a US-Soviet alliance? I remember nothing about the movie, except their flight suit patches were half-American/half-Soviet flags divided diagonally and everyone was happy to be working together.

As for a lack of cultural similarities, I think these are somewhat over-stated. There's an uncomfortable mix of intellectualism and rugged frontier spirit often at odds with each other in both countries. Modes of living are more alike in Russia and the US than with any European country.

Yes, the centuries of close dialogue and shared linguistic culture aren't there. And that's a huge point you can't ignore, and may be enough to shut this down. I'm just testing the waters.
 
Back to realityville, what comes to mind is something like this. It requires a much more cynical and bitter world, especially in Europe, after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

1. Thatcher and Reagan are at best rivals, not friends. Thatcher probably can't be butterflied away as PM, but a serious falling out or (never falling in) with Reagan is possible. Say the US provides major opposition to the Falklands Campaign.

2. After the end of the Cold War, Britain goes heavily towards the EU and tries to become a leading power in it. In the process, the end of the Soviet threat leads to a re-evaluation of American relations, and Britons grow distrustful of being an American proxy. Conservative and Labour platforms build towards almost icy relations with the US.

3. Evaluation of American actions during the Cold War also lead to a general anti-Americanism throughout Europe, that at best, America was a lesser evil than the Soviets. Relations turn downright hostile, with a broad withdrawal from NATO. A combined EU military and nuclear weapons program is built to establish that they will not be intimidated. This turning from the US does not drive them instead into the arms of Russia - instead Russia is treated with distaste and even faces significant energy tariffs, as the EU negotiates an excellent deal with OPEC that ensures the flow of oil, while indirectly supporting the foreign policy in number 3.

4. Muslim terrorist attacks are focused on the US and Russia. The strategy is to attack the two "Great Satans" head-on, with the idea that the rest of the West should be left alone to isolate the Eagle and the Bear. Even the most extreme sects are warned not to commit violence or any sort of threatening behavior towards distant countries other than Russia or the United States (agitating against Shiites in Iran is fine, because it's a turf fight, not an anti-Euro fight). For example, around the same time as the 1st World Trade Center bombing, there's a successful bombing of the Hermitage, destroying many priceless Russian cultural treasures. World reaction is basically that the Soviets deserved it for Afghanistan and the US deserved it for its Middle Eastern policies. The US and Russia don't trust each other but share resources in identifying and attacking Al-Queda. Successful operations lead to greater openness and trust in the future.

5. 9/11 attacks happen as in OTL, but there are also bombings or crashes into the rebuilt Hermitage, St. Basil's Cathedral, the Kremlin, and along several major oil pipelines (Wall Street for the US and Oil for the Russians).

6. The UN rejects either US or Russian action against the Taliban thanks to security council vetoes by Britain and France. China abstains, owing to economic pressure from the Eurozone, which is courting China much like the US has been doing. Britain and France, both led by highly anti-American governments say that these asymmetrical actions do not affect the world as a whole, and that they will not send their sons to help Americans and Russians dig out of the hornet's nest they brought upon themselves.
 
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Zek Sora

Donor
Worse than that. Basically Ryan and the Russian President are old spy rivals turned allies. Imagine if George H.W. Bush was transported into his son's younger body and he and Putin were such pals that Russia joins NATO as it's being attacked by the oil-desperate Chinese. Of course, America rides in to save the day.

Worse yet, the actual reason that America went to war was because the Chinese forced some woman to have an abortion under the one child law.
 
Back to realityville, what comes to mind is something like this. It requires a much more cynical and bitter world, especially in Europe, after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

1. Thatcher and Reagan are at best rivals, not friends. Thatcher probably can't be butterflied away as PM, but a serious falling out or (never falling in) with Reagan is possible.

2. After the end of the Cold War, Britain goes heavily towards the EU and tries to become a leading power in it. In the process, the end of the Soviet threat leads to a re-evaluation of American relations, and Britons grow distrustful of being an American proxy. Conservative and Labour platforms build towards almost icy relations with the US.

3. Evaluation of American actions during the Cold War also lead to a general anti-Americanism throughout Europe, that at best, America was a lesser evil than the Soviets. Relations turn downright hostile, with a broad withdrawal from NATO. A combined EU military and nuclear weapons program is built to establish that they will not be intimidated. This turning from the US does not drive them instead into the arms of Russia - instead Russia is treated with distaste and even faces significant energy tariffs, as the EU negotiates an excellent deal with OPEC that ensures the flow of oil, while indirectly supporting the foreign policy in number 3.

4. Muslim terrorist attacks are focused on the US and Russia. The strategy is to attack the two "Great Satans" head-on, with the idea that the rest of the West should be left alone to isolate the Eagle and the Bear. Even the most extreme sects are warned not to commit violence or any sort of threatening behavior towards distant countries other than Russia or the United States (agitating against Shiites in Iran is fine, because it's a turf fight, not an anti-Euro fight). For example, around the same time as the 1st World Trade Center bombing, there's a successful bombing of the Hermitage, destroying many priceless Russian cultural treasures. World reaction is basically that the Soviets deserved it for Afghanistan and the US deserved it for its Middle Eastern policies. The US and Russia don't trust each other but share resources in identifying and attacking Al-Queda. Successful operations lead to greater openness and trust in the future.

5. 9/11 attacks happen as in OTL, but there are also bombings or crashes into the rebuilt Hermitage, St. Basil's Cathedral, the Kremlin, and along several major oil pipelines (Wall Street for the US and Oil for the Russians).

6. The UN rejects either US or Russian action against the Taliban thanks to security council vetoes by Britain and France. China abstains, owing to economic pressure from the Eurozone, which is courting China much like the US has been doing. Britain and France, both led by highly anti-American governments say that these asymmetrical actions do not affect the world as a whole, and that they will not send their sons to help Americans and Russians dig out of the hornet's nest they brought upon themselves.

Thanks for the effort! Sorry you had to go so dark...:(

But I guess it takes dark to really get these two into bed.

Now, I would still say there are plenty of opportunities for *better* relations between the US and Russia to emerge, but that's largely a factor of where we are now.
 

Asami

Banned
Back to realityville, what comes to mind is something like this. It requires a much more cynical and bitter world, especially in Europe, after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

1. Thatcher and Reagan are at best rivals, not friends. Thatcher probably can't be butterflied away as PM, but a serious falling out or (never falling in) with Reagan is possible.

2. After the end of the Cold War, Britain goes heavily towards the EU and tries to become a leading power in it. In the process, the end of the Soviet threat leads to a re-evaluation of American relations, and Britons grow distrustful of being an American proxy. Conservative and Labour platforms build towards almost icy relations with the US.

3. Evaluation of American actions during the Cold War also lead to a general anti-Americanism throughout Europe, that at best, America was a lesser evil than the Soviets. Relations turn downright hostile, with a broad withdrawal from NATO. A combined EU military and nuclear weapons program is built to establish that they will not be intimidated. This turning from the US does not drive them instead into the arms of Russia - instead Russia is treated with distaste and even faces significant energy tariffs, as the EU negotiates an excellent deal with OPEC that ensures the flow of oil, while indirectly supporting the foreign policy in number 3.

4. Muslim terrorist attacks are focused on the US and Russia. The strategy is to attack the two "Great Satans" head-on, with the idea that the rest of the West should be left alone to isolate the Eagle and the Bear. Even the most extreme sects are warned not to commit violence or any sort of threatening behavior towards distant countries other than Russia or the United States (agitating against Shiites in Iran is fine, because it's a turf fight, not an anti-Euro fight). For example, around the same time as the 1st World Trade Center bombing, there's a successful bombing of the Hermitage, destroying many priceless Russian cultural treasures. World reaction is basically that the Soviets deserved it for Afghanistan and the US deserved it for its Middle Eastern policies. The US and Russia don't trust each other but share resources in identifying and attacking Al-Queda. Successful operations lead to greater openness and trust in the future.

5. 9/11 attacks happen as in OTL, but there are also bombings or crashes into the rebuilt Hermitage, St. Basil's Cathedral, the Kremlin, and along several major oil pipelines (Wall Street for the US and Oil for the Russians).

6. The UN rejects either US or Russian action against the Taliban thanks to security council vetoes by Britain and France. China abstains, owing to economic pressure from the Eurozone, which is courting China much like the US has been doing. Britain and France, both led by highly anti-American governments say that these asymmetrical actions do not affect the world as a whole, and that they will not send their sons to help Americans and Russians dig out of the hornet's nest they brought upon themselves.

If I lived in this universe, I would gladly and happily watch as a United States-Russian alliance slowly destroyed the Europeans. As it is I hate the EU enough already in real life... >_>
 
If I lived in this universe, I would gladly and happily watch as a United States-Russian alliance slowly destroyed the Europeans. As it is I hate the EU enough already in real life... >_>

Wait, I thought you liked superstates. Didn't you write that one TL where the USA merged with the British Empire again?
 
The UK isn't an equal though. None of the US' allies are. They're all junior partners and I can't see Russia being content with that role. They'reproud that they have an independent foreign policy and they're one of the countries with the size, resources and population to do it.:)

If the US-American leaders in Washington DC were wise, they would have acted as first among equals which is what the Russian government hoped for.

If I lived in this universe, I would gladly and happily watch as a United States-Russian alliance slowly destroyed the Europeans. As it is I hate the EU enough already in real life... >_>

Why do you dislike the better Union so much?
 

Asami

Banned
Wait, I thought you liked superstates. Didn't you write that one TL where the USA merged with the British Empire again?

My dislike for the European Union is for different reasons than simply "super states". It is more of a matter of my frustration at the level of incompetency in the European Union leadership.

Why do you dislike the better Union so much?

"better" is a relative term, especially when you're dealing with a Union that has been going through the same economic crisis long after everyone pretty much recovered from it. It's less me disliking Europe as an entity and me more disliking Brussels and the large amounts of regulations and incompetence that is rife there. Also, it is partially culturally motivated because there are many Europeans who have a false sense of superiority over other cultures because we're not as old, nothing I've experienced here, but outside of the forum definitely.
 
I've got two PODs for the America Alienates Europe Challenge.

1. President Reagan invokes the Monroe Doctrine on British actions towards the Falklands, despite initial friendship with Thatcher, such that Britain either backs down or goes ahead with it anyway and the US refuses to go to war with a nuclear power. Britain either ends up humiliated like post-colonial Spain or resurgent and independently proud. The result is the same in that anti-American sentiments flare enormously in Britain and the Commonwealth. Europe is worried about friendship with the perfidious Eagle.

2. The NSA espionage and wiretapping operations in NATO nations is discovered in the 1980s. In addition, American subs are cable tapping throughout the European waters, in the same way the Soviet Union was being tapped. Long and short is that Europe is horrified to be flanked by the Stasi on the East German border and the NSA across the Atlantic. Further anger emerges when the information has been used to politically discredit certain rising stars in anti-American parties before they can rise to prominence and to outsteam Europe on trade agreements.
 
If Putin does not come to power and some other people similar to Yeltsin comes to power, well Russia might join NATO, and get a slice of "democracy", if you know what I mean.
 
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