AHC: US Enters WW2 in 1939

The US isn't likely to go to war over the Panay incident, sure.

But, it COULD wake up the US establishment and military, and start a build up sooner than OTL, more soldiers in the Philippines, the sub base on Midway, better defenses on Wake, etc.

If Japan attacks the US as well as Britain, France and the Netherlands at or near the same time Hitler goes to war against them, the US might well DoW Germany at the same time as Japan - especially given the alliance between Japan and Germany.

Of course, Japan's not going to attack south in 1939. They aren't ready, they don't have the bases, etc., so that's pretty unlikely.
 
Ya, it would take a lot more than the Panay incident to start a war. Even if the US diplomat beaten had been killed instead it would not be enough. Maybe another US warship damaged/sunk, some Marines or Army (14th Regiment) killed, and considerable diplomatic blundering. All that is hypothetically possible in 1937-38. After all the Japanese managed to blunder into a senseless war with China at the time.
 
US, British and French sanctions after the start of the Sino Japanese War in 1937 bring Tojo to power by fall 1939. He signs an alliance with Germany. The Japanese declare war and attack the American, UK and French bases on December 3rd, 1939. Hitler declares war on December th7, 1939. Operation Torch happens in November 1940. The invasion of Sicily in July 1941. Then the invasion of Normandy June 1942. Germany surrenders in May 1942. The Atomic Bomb is dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1942 and then Hirohito surrenders.
Uh no way

Tojo was too Junior in 39 to be considered for PM

Without a war those sanctions will not be near as tough as the ones after Indochina

US is in no way going to be ready for major operations in 1940 with a war beginning in 39 without something major in 38 spooking them. You also assume that with the US in the war Vichy will still form like OTL

Likewise the timeline on beating Japan OTL was set by ships ordered in 1940 after the fall of France, without moving that up as well, moving up the war slows things down

1937 no one is sure if a useful nuclear weapon is possible, and will be 1939 before that point, and even then there will be no aircraft to use it with in 1942
 
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