With a 1900 POD whats the most realistic way to get a USA with 500million people by modern day? IOTL USA has around 330 million people, so an extra 170 million would be necessary. How would this extra population effect the country and what region would most of these excess citizens locate to?
AHC: United States with 500 million population
- Thread starter sirjackalot
- Start date
No Chinese exclusion act, more pro migration ( integrationalist? Even better economy) something as a start, but short of massive pro natalist population I see 400M the natural max
I'm not sure how realistic it is, but one way to do it is to increase the territory and population of this alternative USA. A more unstable 20th century could lead to various places (e.g. Cuba, Phillipines, even Mexico) remaining/becoming parts of the United States in in order to remain under its protection.
Fuzzy Dunlop
Banned
More Christian Asians and Indo-Caucasian being persecuted thus emigrating to the USA?
Modern numbers in India - 2.3%, Indonesia - 11%!
More emigration from the Phiippines post Spanish - American War?, there's another 7-ish million to start with in 1900!
US making philippines states gets you up to 440 million easily
cuba kept in 1898 gets you around 30 million more given how a us cuba would demographiclaly transition later than communist cuba
have 1965 act not de facto exclude europeans likely adds 20-30 million more so probably that covers the rest
cuba kept in 1898 gets you around 30 million more given how a us cuba would demographiclaly transition later than communist cuba
have 1965 act not de facto exclude europeans likely adds 20-30 million more so probably that covers the rest
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
earlier antibiotics?
benefits rich countries first, but then benefits pretty much all countries.
benefits rich countries first, but then benefits pretty much all countries.
USA keeps Philippines and Cuba as possessions, their population growth rates remain similar to OTL before the US incorporates them as states:
USA population 328.2 million
Philippines population 108.1 million
Cuba population 11.3 million
Total 447.6 million
Now just need to get another 52.4 million people from somewhere...
USA population 328.2 million
Philippines population 108.1 million
Cuba population 11.3 million
Total 447.6 million
Now just need to get another 52.4 million people from somewhere...
If there were no world wars, there would be more Europeans who could migrate. I think there would be heavy immigration from Austro-Hungary and Russia.
The 1900 limit makes this hard, it would be a lot easier with an earlier PoD so that the United States could incorporate Canada (regardless of the probability you believe this had), Mexico, Central America...the demographic transition also becomes an issue with such a late PoD, we can't blithely assume that anywhere that joins the United States will maintain the birthrates of OTL.
Deleted member 109224
Without changing the country's borders?
OTL the US government stuck the Vietnamese refugees all over the place. Guam, Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, Minnesota, California, etc. It would probably be similar here.
European immigrants would land on the east coast but over time move to other cities in the middle and the west of the country, like OTL.
- No Immigration Acts of 1917 and 1924 (20 to 30 million?)
- Get the U.S. to adopt a policy which, if not explicitly pro-natalist, is highly supportive of something like a UBI for kids and health coverage for kids (CHIP wasn't until the 1990s OTL).
- No Roe v Wade. Abortion will end up legalized state by state over time, but it won't be as available (pre-Roe setting the bar at 28 weeks, the most liberal state was New York at 22 for example, and other states probably won't have it until 15 like is typical in Europe) and it will come later, meaning more babies born and more people generally.
- Have some minor PODs changing US housing policy so that you don't have the cost of living constraints that first started popping up in the late 20th century, meaning people are willing and able to have more kids.
- During the Indochina Refugee Crisis and Vietnam Withdrawal generally, the US adopts a super pro-refugee policy. Any Hoa (Vietnamese Chinese), Catholic, SVA veteran, family of SVA veteran, Hmong, South Vietnamese businessperson, or South Vietnamese public official can get into the US. By 2020 these folks and their descendants in the US number about 20 million. This later translates into a much broader 'victims of communism' Cold War immigration policy that over time means another 10 million immigrants.
OTL the US government stuck the Vietnamese refugees all over the place. Guam, Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, Minnesota, California, etc. It would probably be similar here.
European immigrants would land on the east coast but over time move to other cities in the middle and the west of the country, like OTL.
Im not sure you could do this with a 1900 POD. By that point annexing Canada or Mexico or any part of them is out of the question and the Caribbean (save Cuba) pretty much is ASB as well. The Philippines wouldn't be annexed either. I can see large-scale immigration from the Philippines and Cuba having a rather larger population than now, but going further than that means both keeping the US' birth rate high and it's immigration rate high throughout the century. Not sure how you'd do that to a degree that you add 170 million people to it though....
Getting parts of Mexico to become parts of the USA would most likely come through a 2nd Mexican-American War.
A war with Britain is unlikely with a post-1900 POD, but Mexico is another story. I'm not just talking about the Zimmerman telegram, the Pancho Villa raid could absolutely have led to war and the subsequent annexation of Baja California and Mexico's northern states.
1. I'd argue the 1924 immigration act was ultimately unnecessary, considering that immigration levels would've crashed in the depression a few years later. However, the U.S. would've gotten a ton of immigration during the Post-WW2 emigration boom from Europe, thus leading to millions more White Americans ITTL.
2. I think something like this would've happened without the postwar Baby Boom. Fertility rates crashed in the Great Depression across the entire western world, and lawmakers would've eventually taken action if they didn't rebound in such a big way after 1945. Alternatively, the Baby Boom could've ended more slowly and not crashed as hard, with the fertility rate settling just above replacement level by the year 2000.
3. Not touching this with a 39 and a half foot pole.
4. Housing is going to be expensive in high-demand cities and especially high demand cities with limited room to expand like San Francisco, but maybe the U.S. develops denser urban areas similar to Pre-WW2 suburbia (look at parts of NYC and Chicago for examples), thus leading to a higher housing supply with less space being taken up by lawns and driveways.
5. I think this would change U.S. politics significantly. If the Vietnamese were invited in en masse during the Nixon and Ford administrations, these Vietnamese Americans would at least be a swing demographic, if not a Republican voting bloc (OTL's Vietnamese Americans are split roughly 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans). This would make the GOP more comfortable with minority voters, showing that they could indeed end up voting Republican, which might lead to them being more successful with Hispanics and other Asians. Hispanics and Asians being 50/50 or even 60/40 Dem/Rep voters would make the Republican base more comfortable with demographic changes, since it wouldn't equal political doom. However, that's probably best left in chat.