AHC: Unite France and Spain under a Bourbon monarch
- Thread starter Socrates
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ASB. Britain or the Germans or the Habsburgs or anyone who has vested interest in keeping France and Spain apart will attack France. There is a reason we had a war of Spanish Succession, and France got its sorry butt kicked. Not to mention the Spaniards will not be pleased just being leashed to Paris.
No the war of Spanish succestion France did quite well given what type of forces were arrayed against it.
archaeogeek
Banned
You mean the war that ended with a Bourbon on both the French and Spanish thrones and later led to the two countries adopting the same foreign policy anyway?
I'm not familiar with Bourbon family trees, but it doesn't seem like it would be too hard for one line or the other to die out in such a way that the other line is the best option. Whatever the circumstances, it will likely require a war. The other powers won't take kindly to a Franco-Spanish Union. So this new union will almost immediately be forced to fight against a temporary alliance of the British, the Habsburgs, and anyone else who happens to be an important power at the time.
The key would actually be Philippe II, Duke of Orleans if he decides that supporting Philip V is the best course of action then its possible that this could come to pass.
archaeogeek
Banned
The Bourbon family tree was especially hit hard before and during the revolution; Louis XV almost died without a heir (well, there was Felipe V), and much of the house of Bourbon on both side of the Pyrenees had a lot of trouble having sons or, hell, even children.
Sure, they were dynastically united, but the countries were never able to be unified. It wasn't as bad as it could have been, but if the Bourbons united, do you think the UK would just roll over?
No. It wouldn't. Austria and Prussia would attack for land and for Italian influence. Meanwhile, the New World would be on fire depending on whether the Portuguese get involved against the Spaniards.
No. It wouldn't. Austria and Prussia would attack for land and for Italian influence. Meanwhile, the New World would be on fire depending on whether the Portuguese get involved against the Spaniards.
archaeogeek
Banned
The Portuguese in the New World were largely insignificant (isolated; Brazil was huge, but its population was far from anything but Montevideo and Buenos Aires, which were minor towns at that point, and also smaller than the spanish colonies separately) and were even more hated than the Spanish, especially by the natives. A rematch of the war of spanish succession wouldn't be a haphazard Spain being carried by France, it would be France and Spain close to their zenith, with British dominance of the seas being still far from certain. There's no more spanish Habsburg candidate to throw at the french to fuck things up on that front.
Would it be easy? No. But it would be very damn close on both sides.
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It is a very low possibility POD, but...
Henri, comte de Chambord, is a bit less ossified in his prejudices and accepts the three-colored French flag when he becomes the pretender for the French throne after the abdication of Nappy III (OTL he insisted that the only flag should be the monarchist one, with the fleurs-de-lys).
So the national assembly votes a monarchist restoration in 1872 or 1873.
Henri does not have any children, and at his death in 1883 the monarchist claim for the house of Bourbon passed to Juan Carlos of Bourbon, the Carlist pretender to the Spanish throne.
If Henri is on the French throne, he might support the claim of Juan Carlos in Spain, and name him heir apparent for the French throne too.
It's all very unlikely. Just to start, I doubt there is much support in France or Spain for a dinastic union with the other. It is also almost impossible that the other European powers will accept such a union.
However, between 1883 and 1887 (when he died) Juan Carlos was the Bourbon pretender to both thrones.
Henri, comte de Chambord, is a bit less ossified in his prejudices and accepts the three-colored French flag when he becomes the pretender for the French throne after the abdication of Nappy III (OTL he insisted that the only flag should be the monarchist one, with the fleurs-de-lys).
So the national assembly votes a monarchist restoration in 1872 or 1873.
Henri does not have any children, and at his death in 1883 the monarchist claim for the house of Bourbon passed to Juan Carlos of Bourbon, the Carlist pretender to the Spanish throne.
If Henri is on the French throne, he might support the claim of Juan Carlos in Spain, and name him heir apparent for the French throne too.
It's all very unlikely. Just to start, I doubt there is much support in France or Spain for a dinastic union with the other. It is also almost impossible that the other European powers will accept such a union.
However, between 1883 and 1887 (when he died) Juan Carlos was the Bourbon pretender to both thrones.
Is it really that ASB? Even if you have it happen 50 years after a POD? I would have thought that would give a lot of room for divergence. If we butterfly the revolution and maintain France's strength, all you need to is to distract/weaken Britain for long enough.
Napoleonic France managed to take on most of Europe for a while. If we have a Royalist France with improved capability and an alliance with Russia, why not?
What would be end of a war where Britain achieves absolute naval superiority and France achieves absolute land superiority on the continent? All it needs is for negotiations to break down and that situation could become entrenched.
Napoleonic France managed to take on most of Europe for a while. If we have a Royalist France with improved capability and an alliance with Russia, why not?
What would be end of a war where Britain achieves absolute naval superiority and France achieves absolute land superiority on the continent? All it needs is for negotiations to break down and that situation could become entrenched.
wolf_brother
Banned
The issue there is that the Legitimists and the Orléanist came to an agreement where by the National Assembly would offer the crown to Henri, with the understanding that once the childless Bourbon died the throne would pass to Philippe d'Orléans, comte de Paris.
Besides, with such a late POD, any Franco-Spanish union under monarchist ideology is ASB. The French will balk, the Spanish will balk, the Great powers will intervene, etc.