AHC: U.S. in Vietnam-like conflict

Sorry they never supported Portuguese. That just a fairy tale the Americans say. They did not sell Portuguese weapons. Talk to the Portuguese and they tell you. The Americans wanted Portuguese out ASAP so they could exploit Africa themselves.

Just look at the motions at the UN. The US never supported the Portuguese

I wasn't under the impression that the U.S. had supported any colonial/white minority regime in Africa. The preferred model was always a local strongman like Mobutu. My question is, with P.OD. in 1961, if the perceived alternatives are white colonial rule versus Communists, would the U.S. support Portuguese and Rhodesian efforts against Communism?
 

Lusitania

Donor
I wasn't under the impression that the U.S. had supported any colonial/white minority regime in Africa. The preferred model was always a local strongman like Mobutu. My question is, with P.OD. in 1961, if the perceived alternatives are white colonial rule versus Communists, would the U.S. support Portuguese and Rhodesian efforts against Communism?
The problem was that from the end of WWII the US policy had been against all colonial governance and demanded or pushed for independence. It was felt as you stated that American interests were better protected dealing with local governments as opposed to colonial government.

As for your pod of 1961 that is the Portuguese colonial wars in iOTL. They started at that time and Portuguese were fighting communist rebels supported by Soviet Union and the US did shit all, sorry they impeded the Portuguese from being able to defend their overseas provinces and even then the Pirtugyese lasted till 74.
 
1960es direct military involvement in Congo crisis ?

Exactly what I was going to say. Patrice Lamumba survives and reaches out to the Soviet Bloc for arms and training. Katanga secedes backed by the West. US troops get sent to Katanga to help protect democracy against communist insurgents and get drawn into the wider bush war conflicts in the region.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Exactly what I was going to say. Patrice Lamumba survives and reaches out to the Soviet Bloc for arms and training. Katanga secedes backed by the West. US troops get sent to Katanga to help protect democracy against communist insurgents and get drawn into the wider bush war conflicts in the region.


I am currently writing new TL about a more progressive Estado Novo Portuguese federation that in 1960s does support Katanga first with supplies, training and finally troops in its war against soviet backed Congo.
 
India. The Emergency turns into a civil war that leads to the balkanization of the country.

Alternatively, Red China. The Cultural Revolution gets so chaotic that competing factions within the government start tearing each other apart for being "revisionists". The ROC launches expeditionary forces to retake the south, and the U.S. government decides to support them to save face[1]. Several generals take control of the northern provinces and declare independence with Soviet support.

[1] After all, how would it look to Asia if America couldn't keep its own allies under control?
 

Lusitania

Donor
India. The Emergency turns into a civil war that leads to the balkanization of the country.

Alternatively, Red China. The Cultural Revolution gets so chaotic that competing factions within the government start tearing each other apart for being "revisionists". The ROC launches expeditionary forces to retake the south, and the U.S. government decides to support them to save face[1]. Several generals take control of the northern provinces and declare independence with Soviet support.

[1] After all, how would it look to Asia if America couldn't keep its own allies under control?

In the 1920s I think the Indian communist party decided to advocate peaceful and democratic change as opposed armed struggle. So what if this not happen and communist fight both British and imperial Indian forces leading to major attacks following independence and major civil war.
 
India. The Emergency turns into a civil war that leads to the balkanization of the country.

At most maybe there will be a US mission to secure the nukes (in that case, other countries might help America in that process, like Pakistan and the UK) but other than that unless a communist government is established (unlikely) I don't see the US staying around for long.
 
The problem was that from the end of WWII the US policy had been against all colonial governance and demanded or pushed for independence. It was felt as you stated that American interests were better protected dealing with local governments as opposed to colonial government.

As for your pod of 1961 that is the Portuguese colonial wars in iOTL. They started at that time and Portuguese were fighting communist rebels supported by Soviet Union and the US did shit all, sorry they impeded the Portuguese from being able to defend their overseas provinces and even then the Pirtugyese lasted till 74.

That's making me wonder if we can make the Congo situation into a three-way war. Belgian-backed Katanga allied with Portugal, Rhodesia, and South Africa, U.S.-backed Kinshasa regime, Communist Stanleyville regime. Throw in U.N. peacekeepers as well.
 

Lusitania

Donor
That's making me wonder if we can make the Congo situation into a three-way war. Belgian-backed Katanga allied with Portugal, Rhodesia, and South Africa, U.S.-backed Kinshasa regime, Communist Stanleyville regime. Throw in U.N. peacekeepers as well.

I have in my TL a three way battle with US backed Mobutu, Soviet backed Lumumba and Portuguese backed Katanga. I will leave the outcome to the TL.
 
That's making me wonder if we can make the Congo situation into a three-way war. Belgian-backed Katanga allied with Portugal, Rhodesia, and South Africa, U.S.-backed Kinshasa regime, Communist Stanleyville regime.
Sounds like a recipe for Portugal to get kicked out of NATO, especially if they send advisors.
 
I have in my TL a three way battle with US backed Mobutu, Soviet backed Lumumba and Portuguese backed Katanga. I will leave the outcome to the TL.

I'll have to check it out.

Sounds like a recipe for Portugal to get kicked out of NATO, especially if they send advisors.

My thought was that the U.S. wouldn't support the Kinshasa regime against Katanga and that the U.N. peacekeepers would be keeping Katanga and Kinshasa apart, with the theory that defeating the Communists is first priority and Katanga can be resolved politically. If the Communists do well enough, that could evolve into full U.S. support for Katanga and Portugal as well as for Kinshasa.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'll have to check it out.



My thought was that the U.S. wouldn't support the Kinshasa regime against Katanga and that the U.N. peacekeepers would be keeping Katanga and Kinshasa apart, with the theory that defeating the Communists is first priority and Katanga can be resolved politically. If the Communists do well enough, that could evolve into full U.S. support for Katanga and Portugal as well as for Kinshasa.

The idea is that the communist do a much better job that Kinshasa because the Soviets are more committed to the cause and provide more military support. The UN like in iOTL gets the heck out when neither party willing to respect them and UN troops are killed. As for rest hoping to start posting before summer.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Lebanon 1958 gets bloody and boggy? OTL US Marines got in and out without killing anybody or losing anybody. What if it turns into a prolonged proxy fight?

I can see this get ugly if done wrong.

Possible, but from what I've read Eisenhower was pretty determined not to get US troops involved long term in Lebanon.

Over a decade ago on SHWI, a poster named Chet Arthur broached an idea called "Lebanon, 1958" it was a pretty good discussion thread. Here: https://tinyurl.com/y9cu9bqm

Thinking on that scenario, I see a couple long-term effects. Small scale manufacturing and tourism are boosted in the eastern Mediterranean (Greece, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel) and southern Italy by the presence of a sizable US troop contingent and the need to support it, much like how the Korean War and Vietnam Wars boosted East Asian economies.

Lebanon intervention will also see a lot of war brides and social connections established between Americans and Christian Lebanese (and Christian Palestinians). Americans and Muslims by contrast will hardly mix. By the 1970s and 80s or so this will have a major effect of increasing emigration from those groups and tilting the demographic balances even more towards Muslims in the region, as war brides, family unification and chain migration to the U.S. build up momentum.

Of course complicating factors in a ground intervention in Lebanon that gets big. For instance a bombing campaign against sources of adversary support in Syria is a near certainty, with even ground incursions a la Cambodia or an outright U.S. invasion to Damascus a possibility. Bombing campaigns or harbor mining might reach even further if the U.S. decides it needs to go after Egypt and Iraq as sources of adversary supply, but at that point things would seem to be widening way too much probably.
 
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