AHC: U.S. in Vietnam-like conflict

I always envisioned a more successful Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 perhaps leading to a Vietnam on our own doorstep, the Cuban's forming a weak pro US government more or less propped up with US military might. The East Bloc infiltrating Guerrillas via Central America to raise hell in the same vein as the Viet Cong. It might not end up as much of a quagmire as Vietnam was, but i'd be bloody and close to home. It could also become more like the Malaysian Emergency with a somewhat more cooperative civilian population assisting US troops patrolling the country alongside the soldiers of the "Democratic Republic of Cuba".

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US Soldiers searching a Cuban Civilian, 1962
 
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Possible, but from what I've read Eisenhower was pretty determined not to get US troops involved long term in Lebanon.

Congo seems like a distinct possibility. In the USA, being involved in a war against an African enemy is likely to exacerbate racial tensions beyond even what they were in the 60s OTL.

Particularly when the African guerillas are a mystic cult who engages in cannibalism. That’s going to feed racist propaganda pretty hard.

Even if the Simbas get beaten as easily as OTL, there’s a huge can of worms in the Congo, as @Yes says. There’s a million potential insurgencies and threats to Mobutu that could make Vietnam look like child’s play and the Iraq/Syria situation look simple.
 
Congo Crisis seems the most likely. U.S. involvement was scaling up there at the same time it was in Vietnam. It's just that the Western puppet government won quickly in the Congo and not in Vietnam.

It could have gone very differently if Lumumba had escaped to his home turf of Stanleyville. He wasn't a communist, but at this point Lumumba would have had little choice but to turn to the Soviets for aid.
 
It could have gone very differently if Lumumba had escaped to his home turf of Stanleyville. He wasn't a communist, but at this point Lumumba would have had little choice but to turn to the Soviets for aid.

I thought about making a Vietnam-in-Congo thread a year or two ago and that’s what I concluded would be the best way to do it. There’s basically no way to make the Simbas a long term threat but Lumumba would have been extremely dangerous to the West, and as capable and sympathetic as he was, would have made for a long and nasty conflict across the world.
 
Lumumba would have been extremely dangerous to the West, and as capable and sympathetic as he was, would have made for a long and nasty conflict across the world.

This is a particularly important factor. Lumumba made Castro look like... well, Castro. Along with all the cross-cutting factors you had in Congo/Zaire (prior to his death IOTL) easily one of the two or three most intelligent, charismatic, and capable hard-left leaders anywhere, especially in the Sixties. (In the Sixties he may be top of the pops himself.) If he slips the Tshombe/CIA noose there's an awful lot of canopy under which he can hide, and galvanize essentially ethnic and territorial movements in favor of ideological goals. That has all kinds of ripple effects, including US governments who work relentlessly to crush it which could, in reaction, make anti-Vietnam sentiment at home look tame.

There are several near misses IOTL. The most direct is probably that the Belgian intervention in Stanleyville et al. in November '64 (Operation Dragon Rouge) was originally designed and planned as a US op. Crush the Simbas, save endangered white folks (and the foreigners there truly were endangered, the murders were brutal), shift the political balance, all the kinds of positive feedback that encourage decision makers to keep poking the bear. But if Lumumba's still out there, very different picture. With the Simbas out of the game due to foreign action, easier to pull together other disparate interests in an anti-foreigner movement marinated steadily in People's Revolution. And the borders with Angola and soon-to-be-Zambia are so porous as to be nonexistent. Also in terms of force deployment across real estate, the Vietnamese DMZ is about the size of a mine owner's backyard along the southern Congo border. Throw in the Ho Chi Minh trail and it's still a fraction of the ground to cover in Congo.
 

samcster94

Banned
This is a particularly important factor. Lumumba made Castro look like... well, Castro. Along with all the cross-cutting factors you had in Congo/Zaire (prior to his death IOTL) easily one of the two or three most intelligent, charismatic, and capable hard-left leaders anywhere, especially in the Sixties. (In the Sixties he may be top of the pops himself.) If he slips the Tshombe/CIA noose there's an awful lot of canopy under which he can hide, and galvanize essentially ethnic and territorial movements in favor of ideological goals. That has all kinds of ripple effects, including US governments who work relentlessly to crush it which could, in reaction, make anti-Vietnam sentiment at home look tame.

There are several near misses IOTL. The most direct is probably that the Belgian intervention in Stanleyville et al. in November '64 (Operation Dragon Rouge) was originally designed and planned as a US op. Crush the Simbas, save endangered white folks (and the foreigners there truly were endangered, the murders were brutal), shift the political balance, all the kinds of positive feedback that encourage decision makers to keep poking the bear. But if Lumumba's still out there, very different picture. With the Simbas out of the game due to foreign action, easier to pull together other disparate interests in an anti-foreigner movement marinated steadily in People's Revolution. And the borders with Angola and soon-to-be-Zambia are so porous as to be nonexistent. Also in terms of force deployment across real estate, the Vietnamese DMZ is about the size of a mine owner's backyard along the southern Congo border. Throw in the Ho Chi Minh trail and it's still a fraction of the ground to cover in Congo.
President George Wallace(or Strom Thurmond or any other hardline segregationist) elected???
 
to help Apartheid South Africa against the Cubans?

At that point, to help NATO ally Portugal (and the odious Estado Novo who still ran the shop in Lisbon at that point) hang on to their overseas empire. If you're a Bircher et al. doing a solid for apartheid is just a side benefit.
 

samcster94

Banned
At that point, to help NATO ally Portugal (and the odious Estado Novo who still ran the shop in Lisbon at that point) hang on to their overseas empire. If you're a Bircher et al. doing a solid for apartheid is just a side benefit.
Indeed. The "stopping Communism" argument works well here.
 

samcster94

Banned
Operation Downfall actually happening or an Iran War occurring in either the 1980s or the 21st century seems to the best bet.

Maybe have Indonesia go communist and have a war be fought there? Another conflict might be a war in Yugoslavia in the 1990s or even prior to that.
Yugoslavia going worse and the U.S. intervening under Clinton against Serbia on the ground might work, but that is unlikely.
 
At that point, to help NATO ally Portugal (and the odious Estado Novo who still ran the shop in Lisbon at that point) hang on to their overseas empire. If you're a Bircher et al. doing a solid for apartheid is just a side benefit.

That's the nastiest side effect I see. Even if the Congo War itself isn't on the scale or intensity of Vietnam but still requires U.S. boots on the ground, Portugal and Rhodesia are going to be calling for U.S. assistance to help them defeat Communists, and the U.S. definitely doesn't want Angola or Rhodesia becoming bases for Communist insurgency in the Congo. Imagine a situation where black American draftees are told they have to go get shot in the jungle to defend white colonial rule. The knock-on effects for U.S. politics are downright chilling.

Also, Nyerere in Tanzania is a potential problem. I can see the U.S. overthrowing him in favor of a more cooperative government.
 

Lusitania

Donor
At that point, to help NATO ally Portugal (and the odious Estado Novo who still ran the shop in Lisbon at that point) hang on to their overseas empire. If you're a Bircher et al. doing a solid for apartheid is just a side benefit.

The US policy was that the best way to stop the spread of communism was to get the colonial powers out of Africa and Asia and then the US become the locals “friend” and “savior”.

The only thing the US did for Portuguese was to kick them in the teeth and pressure them out.

NATO has a policy that only Portuguese territory north of the Cape Verde islands would be considered part of NATO. Rest was Portuguese problem.
 
The US policy was that the best way to stop the spread of communism was to get the colonial powers out of Africa and Asia and then the US become the locals “friend” and “savior”.

The only thing the US did for Portuguese was to kick them in the teeth and pressure them out.

NATO has a policy that only Portuguese territory north of the Cape Verde islands would be considered part of NATO. Rest was Portuguese problem.

At what point did the U.S. start pressuring Portugal out of Africa? With a POD in 1961, could we see the U.S. supporting Portugal in Angola against a "Communist" insurgency?
 

Lusitania

Donor
At what point did the U.S. start pressuring Portugal out of Africa? With a POD in 1961, could we see the U.S. supporting Portugal in Angola against a "Communist" insurgency?
Sorry they never supported Portuguese. That just a fairy tale the Americans say. They did not sell Portuguese weapons. Talk to the Portuguese and they tell you. The Americans wanted Portuguese out ASAP so they could exploit Africa themselves.

Just look at the motions at the UN. The US never supported the Portuguese
 
The Portuguese have a squad of former guerrillas known as troops especials, they could be supported in alliance with UNITA AND MNR In Angola and Mozambique.
 
Imagine a situation where black American draftees are told they have to go get shot in the jungle to defend white colonial rule. The knock-on effects for U.S. politics are downright chilling.

Also, Nyerere in Tanzania is a potential problem. I can see the U.S. overthrowing him in favor of a more cooperative government.

Both these things, with knobs on. Heart of darkness indeed. Really, except Nyasaland/Botswana, everything south of Lake Victoria and on a line drawn from there eastwards across the continent, is a potential problem for the US and potentially involves alliances with an authentic basket of deplorables. Just about makes SE Asia look straightforward.
 
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