AHC: U.S. has a war with Spain, helps Mexico become independent, and gets near OTL SW border

raharris1973

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Here's the challenge - Have the US acquire most of its OTL southwest (you can shave some off, as long as they have Alta California, Nuevo Mexico and Tejas) by direct conquest from Spain, not any Mexican state. Also, have US be an ally of rebels fighting for Mexican independence, and have the post-Spanish, independent Mexico consent (even if grudgingly) to US ownership of those old northern provinces of New Spain. Bonus points if the United States, especially its military forces, contributes a lot to Mexico achieving independence from Spain.
 
Quasi-war goes hot. No way spain can stop an american invasion of louisiana, and on the plus side, 'ol hammy probably has alot better of a life.
 

raharris1973

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Quasi-war goes hot. No way spain can stop an american invasion of louisiana, and on the plus side, 'ol hammy probably has alot better of a life.

But can we plausibly wank the US campaign so good that it results in an American conquest/occupation/award of Texas to California? And wank Mexican independistas this much at this time?

Overall, seems a bit early, but I'd entertain any scenarios like this.
 
Well, obviously the americans won't annex all of OTL america in one fell swoop, but louisiana could be a start. And, if spain is losing a war in the americas, the independistas could try to take their chance.

Could we see the british try to get washington and oregon, if the americans are busy? I suppose it could provide a catalyst for 1812, but the entire war itself could be butterflied away by british-american co-operation against spain and france.
 

Brunaburh

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This is impossible without changing Mexican history. The US aren't going to be logistically capable of doing anything until the Louisiana purchase+30/40 years, and they need to have Texas. OTL was about as quick as was humanly possible. So effectively you are asking "how can we delay Mexican independence until after 1840". That requires massive butterflies all over the world.
 

raharris1973

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This is impossible without changing Mexican history. The US aren't going to be logistically capable of doing anything until the Louisiana purchase+30/40 years, and they need to have Texas. OTL was about as quick as was humanly possible. So effectively you are asking "how can we delay Mexican independence until after 1840". That requires massive butterflies all over the world.

I don't think it's *that* hard to postpone Mexican independence. Even by your terms. The Louisiana Purchase was accomplished four years before the beginning of the peninsular war with all its knock-ons for the Spanish overseas empire. Even with a peninsular war, a more stable postwar Spain or back luck for rebels could keep the hold on New Spain lasting decades longer.
 

Brunaburh

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I don't think it's *that* hard to postpone Mexican independence. Even by your terms. The Louisiana Purchase was accomplished four years before the beginning of the peninsular war with all its knock-ons for the Spanish overseas empire. Even with a peninsular war, a more stable postwar Spain or back luck for rebels could keep the hold on New Spain lasting decades longer.

Oh yes, it is possible, but it's a big worldwide timeline. What some people seem to have been answering was "how can the US get Albuquerque in 1810", which is ASB.
 
If the French Revolution is butterflied or doesn't involve invasion of Spain and Spain still has Louisiana (Luisiana), what would be the respective strengths of the two? I assume the Americans could fairly easily take northern Louisiana, but how about New Orleans? Further into Tejas? How about the strength of the two Navies?
 
If the French Revolution is butterflied or doesn't involve invasion of Spain and Spain still has Louisiana (Luisiana), what would be the respective strengths of the two? I assume the Americans could fairly easily take northern Louisiana, but how about New Orleans? Further into Tejas? How about the strength of the two Navies?

If Spain isn't wrecked by invasion and revolutions across its empire, then the US doesn't stand a chance against it. However, if it is going through all those problems at once, the US has a small window of time to be very opportunistic and swoop in. It wouldn't be able to take anything outside of Texas and possibly the Caribbean, still, but those aren't insignificant. I think it would extremely helpful to avoid the War of 1812 for the US.
 

raharris1973

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. It wouldn't be able to take anything outside of Texas and possibly the Caribbean, still, but those aren't insignificant. I think it would extremely helpful to avoid the War of 1812 for the US.

The Caribbean - In the first half of the 19th century, are Spain's Caribbean possessions any easier for the US than California? I'd think not in the case of Gran Colombia, Central America or Puerto Rico. Probably not even Santo Domingo or Cuba.
 
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The Caribbean - In the first half of the 19th century, are Spain's Caribbean possessions any easier for the US than California? I'd think not in the case of Gran Colombia, Central America or Puerto Rico. Probably not even Santo Domingo or Cuba.

The Caribbean entirely depends on how much the US is able to build its navy up before the war, and in how bad a shape Spain is in. There was certainly some desire and motivation there; Jefferson believed it inevitable that the US take Cuba one way or another, and decades later Jackson wanted to invade the island outright. Just like Britain before it, all it would really take would be to occupy Havana.

Meanwhile, California is incredibly far from US supply lines and population centers no matter what it does at that point in time. It's certainly possible Spain could cede their claims to California during any war negotiations, without any American soldiers actually reaching the place, but good luck administering it.
 
The US getting Albuquerque in 1810 seems implausible, rather than simply unlikely.

So does some backwater tribe of nomads from Mongolia suddenly conquering China, Eurasia, and the Middle East out of nowhere and maintaining it for several decades.
My point is it's not ASB until magic happens or basic laws of science are violated, such as the US conquering the Mexican Cession by marching 1,000 miles with no resupply against Spain and holding it without additional resupply. Besides, this isn't asking if the US can hold it, just whether the US could get this series of events to happen. Lots of countries have significantly expanded their borders only to be cut down to size or fall apart.
 

raharris1973

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Lots of countries have significantly expanded their borders only to be cut down to size or fall apart.

This brings up an interesting potential direction - a USA that "precociously" expands by rolling all sixes early in its history and then fragments because the expansion is premature.
 
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