AHC: U.S. does much better job rebuilding Afghanistan?

If they don't cock up at Tora Bora, then I'd say the Taliban and al-Qaeda begin to lose traction in Afghanistan. With bin Laden out of the way in 2002, would Bush really go into Iraq to "find chemical weapons?" Without Iraq and the Taliban in decline, then NATO can spend the rest of its time operating re-building and peacekeeping missions.
 
Fewer private contractors would help, but would run against the grain of 20 years of American public policy so might actually be ASB.

Still, I can't imagine a federal agency running a child sex slave auction ala Dyncorp.
 
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But if the U.S. does get it right, we maintain a good reputation where we can potentially rather easily play a major role during the Arab Spring. And maybe Syria goes very differently. Potentially huge POD.

And Oh, did I say trade's part of it? Has to be. And good trade deals at that!

1- Go into Afghanistan, find and kill Osama Bin Laden, go home.
2 - Stay out of Iraq.

Seriously, screw this 'nation building' shit.
 

jahenders

Banned
That's only partially true. The Taliban started out fighting the opium trade and production. But after a few years, they figured out there was power and money to be had and they started controlling it for their own purposes.

I'd suggest watching the Adam Curtis' documentary Bitter Lake which deals with the occupation of Afghanistan. By 2010, the Taliban of 2001 effectively didn't exist, NATO did a great job of blowing them to smithereens. Problem is they also killed thousands of civilians, add that to rampant corruption from Kabul, and Afghans (like most peoples) not being keen on foriegn troops policing them for a generation. The Taliban name has been taken up by any goatherd with an AK-47 and an axe to grind over his mother being clusterbombed. By 2010 the name effectively meant "I don't like the invaders". Try destroying that.

Thing people forget is the Taliban were the modernisers, the centralisers who battled opium production and official corruption, who wanted a stable, yet certainly Islamist and authoritarian state. The Northern Alliance, the guys who got the goods when the invasion ended, where the localist, traditionalists who were cool with pederasty and opium and beyond their tribal links only cared about the Afghan state when the modernisers (King, Communists, Taliban) pushed too hard on their way of life.

These groups were given power over a state they didn't care about. The rampant corruption didn't come from low wages, its came from trumpeting familial, tribal connections over a state they couldn't give a shit about. Add to that mix, they gained new friends with insane firepower, desperate to kill Taliban and no clue about local culture or customs. There are numerous cases of "hidden Taliban commanders" being fragged only to discover it was a farmer who the informant had a beef with. Which in turns leads to people either with no past connection to the Taliban or even had experience of fighting the Taliban taking up the name because its an anti-American/anti-occupation symbol.
 
Some propositions for a more effektive occupation and modernizaton of Afghanistan:
a) don't rely on democracy before you have an educated middle class able to support it. Prefer a liberal, modern but centralized and appointed government for the first years.
b) educate the children of BOTH genders.
c) enforce women rights with all power (effective way to gain the support of 50% of the population
d) liberalize the secular press, the religion, the sexuality ...
e) build up a laicist state. Exclude priests from government.
f) Pay the officials high enough to counter corruption.
g) help the peasants and disarm the old ruling class with an agrarian reform to gain their support against the Taliban.
h) forbid the burkha, since it's the symbol of women's oppression.

Basically French Revolution 2.0.



Rape shouldn't be allowed - that's for sure. But cracking down on pederasty that hard before anything else could have the adverse effect that the already homophobic Afghan society would associate crime with homosexuality - so such a move would actually worsen the situation of sexual minorities.

Also, consensual intercourse between men shouldn't be forbidden, for the same reasons.

You want a modern and democratic state - Athens had consensual homosexual relationsships and was a democracy at the same time.


TBH... this seems like an absolute clusterfuck in the making that relies on being able to force people at gun point to change their entire way of life and for women and other second class citizens to suddenly decide en masse that they want the Western vision and that it is safe to to publically want it without getting murdered or beaten at least for it.

We'd need a soldier in every home. We couldnt rely on our "allies" even as little as we could OTL.


What we should have done in Afghanistan is kill the fuckers who wanted to kill us, set up a somewhat pliant NA based government with at least a vague interest in improving rights or not being as murderous and drip feed in aid and troops as needed to keep things ticking over just like the Soviets did post pull out and we seem to be doing now.

We don't have two generations and trillions of dollars and half a million or so troops needed to bring Afghanistan into the parts of the 21st century we like.
 
Some propositions for a more effektive occupation and modernizaton of Afghanistan:

d) liberalize the secular press, the religion, the sexuality ...
e) build up a laicist state. Exclude priests from government.
f) Pay the officials high enough to counter corruption.
g) help the peasants and disarm the old ruling class with an agrarian reform to gain their support against the Taliban.
h) forbid the burkha, since it's the symbol of women's oppression.

Basically French Revolution 2.0.

All of these were attempted by the Soviets and they just about turned the entire country against them. While reforms are necessary to society, it must be organic and it cannot be forced upon the Afghan people without any attempt to accommodate their beliefs. Radicalism begets radicalism.
 
We rebuilt Japan after WWII. And straightup, I don't think we respected their views and the reverence they had for their emperor. But we didn't fight or publically oppose the views all that much. And we did a good job of rebuilding.

So, if we can't work with a mainstream monotheistic religion like Islam, we should probably reconsider how well we understand the ways of the world! And yes, some young men are going to be fervent and militaristic, nothing new about that, should not particularly surprise us.

And if occupying U.S. soldiers occasionally mention how people in the United States are not discriminated against in the workplace because of their religion, that's a strong suit and an appealing aspect. Or, if a U.S. commander occasionally mentions this in a policy pronouncement, also a positive. Just don't oversell. And yes, there are all kinds of exceptions. But I think we in the United States do significantly better than average on the question of religious liberty.
 
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We rebuilt Japan after WWII. And straightup, I don't think we respected their views and the reverence they had for their emperor. But we didn't fight or publically oppose the views all that much. And we did a good job of rebuilding.

So, if we can't work with a mainstream monotheistic religion like Islam, we should probably reconsider how well we understand the ways of the world! And yes, some young men are going to be fervent and militaristic, nothing new about that, should not particularly surprise us.

And if occupying U.S. soldiers occasionally mention how people in the United States are not discriminated against in the workplace because of their religion, that's a strong suit and an appealing aspect. Or, if a U.S. commander occasionally mentions this in a policy pronouncement, also a positive. Just don't oversell. And yes, there are all kinds of exceptions. But I think we in the United States do significantly better than average on the question of religious liberty.

I kinda take the whole "good job" in a less sanguine eye than you guys...
But that may be due to me being Chinese...
 
Some of these proposals aren't actually "rebuilding" Afganistan in any plausible way, but implausibly trying to Americanize, like they want it to be a 51st state.
 
We rebuilt Japan after WWII.
(and Germany)

Rebuilding Japan and Germany was IMO way easier than building Afghanistan at least the population is relatively much better organised and equipped to run a single nation state at the start.

G&J had only just fallen from being first world major nations a few years prior to occupation v Afghanistan that had never been a first rank nation and only occasionally organised as an effective single nation state.
 

celt

Banned
You need to seal that big border with Pakistan to be able to secure the country properly, to have a realistic chance of rebuilding Afghanistan. Which would mean sending all the US and British troops that went to Iraq there instead, detente with Iran would also be recommended to secure the Western border, even with all that it is still a big ask.
 
Could special economic and development zones help? Create isolated Westernized cities in the middle of Afghanistan with open markets, free speech, Western levels of sexual freedom?

Create a few in 2002 and as they prosper with the small minority open to Westernization more people will be attracted to the higher income levels, economic growth, and legalized activities.
 
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