AHC: Two different Alexios Komnenoi

Which of these PODs would work better/would be more plausible?:

1. Alexios II and/or Agnes of France being smuggled out of Constantinople ala OTL Alexios IV Angelos after his mother and sister die but before Andronikos has him strangled.

a. Where could they escape to? Hungary? France? Montferrat?
b. Could they gather enough support to overthrow Andronikos or whoever has succeeded him?
c. What would the effects be regarding the Third Crusade? An earlier Sack of Constantinople? OTL, Philip II already disliked the empire for the treatment of his sister.

2. Alexios and David of Trebizond overthrowing Alexios III Angelos around, say, 1199. This might avert the Fourth Crusade since OTL Alexios IV escaped to the Holy Roman Empire in 1201.

a. Who would end up ruling? From what I read, David was the soldier and Alexios the administrator.
b. Would a restored Komnenos dynasty be welcomed by Constantinople or would their reputation be blackened by the prior reign of Andronikos?
c. In terms of campaigns against the Seljuks, would they do better, worse or the same as the Laskarids?
 
Interesting. I am myself working towards the Tenth Crusade after the fall of Constantinople in 1453. But it would be an attack from a different direction altogether. Let us see how it turns out.
 
Alexius II seems like a messy situation at best. Hungary might work - but I'm not sure if it would be any sort of base for a restoration.

Alexius T* would be around seventeen in 1199 - old enough to rule in his own right (16+ seems to have been sufficient, from past examples), but very little experience.

David is fifteen. So if this happens in 1199, I'd bet on Alexius simply on the virtue of being an adult.

I don't think they'd be especially welcome or unwelcome - the name has mixed associations, and they as individuals are unproven.

As for success in Anatolia, I don't know enough about them to say - but any comparison has to take into account they have more to work with than the Laskarids.
 
Alexius II seems like a messy situation at best. Hungary might work - but I'm not sure if it would be any sort of base for a restoration.

Alexius T* would be around seventeen in 1199 - old enough to rule in his own right (16+ seems to have been sufficient, from past examples), but very little experience.

David is fifteen. So if this happens in 1199, I'd bet on Alexius simply on the virtue of being an adult.

I don't think they'd be especially welcome or unwelcome - the name has mixed associations, and they as individuals are unproven.

As for success in Anatolia, I don't know enough about them to say - but any comparison has to take into account they have more to work with than the Laskarids.

Yeah, I keep trying to find PODs for Manuel and Alexius II that don't involve Myriokephalon. I put Hungary up as an option considering Bela III's prior history with Manuel, e.g. Bela would help Alexius regain the throne in exchange for Bosnia, Dalmatia and Syrmia.

Personally, I believe Alexios of Trebizond/ITTL Alexios IV Komnenos would be more of an administrative emperor, working to undo the damage done during the Angeloi, with occasional campaigns against the Turks, regaining, at most, all the Anatolian territory lost since Alexios II.

He'd have no shortage of potential Angeloi usurpers though, depending on whats done with them:

* Isaac II, his daughter Irene (married to Philip of Swabia) and his sons Alexios (OTL Alexios IV) and John (historically, he fled to Hungary and ruled Syrmia under Bela IV).

* Alexios III and possibly Theodore Laskaris since his was married to Alexios' daughter Anna.
 
Yeah, I keep trying to find PODs for Manuel and Alexius II that don't involve Myriokephalon. I put Hungary up as an option considering Bela III's prior history with Manuel, e.g. Bela would help Alexius regain the throne in exchange for Bosnia, Dalmatia and Syrmia.

Hungary's probably your best bet for a friendly country, but even there I think Bela isn't going to place a high priority on it.

As for Manuel/Alexius II - a couple other thoughts that come to mind.Manuel died at 62 OTL - but he could have lived another six years (making him live as long as Frederick Barbarossa).That would put his OTL son as over 16 (if only just).

Manuel could have had a son earlier than OTL (from his first marriage, even).
A better regency, though this one is harder to name people for.
Personally, I believe Alexios of Trebizond/ITTL Alexios IV Komnenos would be more of an administrative emperor, working to undo the damage done during the Angeloi, with occasional campaigns against the Turks, regaining, at most, all the Anatolian territory lost since Alexios II.

He'd have no shortage of potential Angeloi usurpers though, depending on whats done with them:

* Isaac II, his daughter Irene (married to Philip of Swabia) and his sons Alexios (OTL Alexios IV) and John (historically, he fled to Hungary and ruled Syrmia under Bela IV).

* Alexios III and possibly Theodore Laskaris since his was married to Alexios' daughter Anna.
And this is where it gets tricky. Whoever takes the reigns from 1180 on has to be someone able to keep things in order, and Alexius T (T for Trebizond, should have noted it in the previous post) is facing an awful lot of things that have gotten out of hand by the point he's old enough.

"Better than OTL" is not a high bar to clear, "good enough to make a difference" would take someone of exceptional skills at diplomacy and administration - a Michael VIII's diplomacy and a John III's administrative ability.

Not ASB, but if either Alexius was up to being such a man is a question we can only guess at the answer to.

I dodged the question in my timeline, so I suppose that's where my vote on likelihood goes.
 
I'm confused. I thought that the reigning Byzantine emperor named Alexios II had been a son of Manuel I.
 
I'm confused. I thought that the reigning Byzantine emperor named Alexios II had been a son of Manuel I.

The two Alexios we are referring to are Alexios II, son of Manuel I and Alexios, grandson of Andronikos I and co-founder of the Empire of Trebizond.
 
The two Alexios we are referring to are Alexios II, son of Manuel I and Alexios, grandson of Andronikos I and co-founder of the Empire of Trebizond.

Okay, that helps. I digured you were talking about the founder of the Empire of Trebizond, but I thought that he was being numbered here as Alexios II when he'd be Alexios III had he been the official emperor.
 
if we push the pod to manuel's death or near it andronikos may not even beome emperor. After all the story of Anronikos Komnenos is one of amazing luck and he almost died numerous times during his various exiles and his actions. So if Andronikos dies during one of his ridiculous escapades the he wont be a threat. Next the regency can survive but you need to get rid of Alexius the protesebastos somehow. Then If she(maria alexius mother) rules like a normal regent rather than one who takes lovers and sidelines her son and his allies, then I see no reason why Alexius cant become live to become emperor. If so you would see an ere aligned with France and may turn its attention west rather than east. the big problem though is how to get rid of simmering tensions beetween the orthdox byzatnine citizens and the catholic latins since a big reason in otl why after maria was overthrown by alexius half sister andonikos was welcomed into capital since he was not a latin.
 
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Huh and to think I immediately went to the idea of Alexios Komnenos having an identical twin also named Alexios Komnenos.
 
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