AHC: Two Chinese States by 1900

With a POD after 1800 is it possible for there to be two Chinese states in existence by the year 1900? They don't need to be of equal size of strength but the caveat is that they must not be on the verge of conquering one another as the new century arrives.

Go.
 
That's fairly easy, actually.

A successful Taiping Rebellion results in survival of a Taiping state that does not succeed in capturing all of the traditional Qing holdings. This might be a Cantonese state that controls Shanghai and the territories south of the Yangtze; a Han Chinese state that drives the Qing to Manchuria but does not subdue it; or a little bit from Column A and Column B, where Manchuria and some fraction of North China remains Qing while the Taipings control the south and some portion of the rest of the country.

If you want to go all-in on Taiping craziness, you could wind up with a half-dozen states carved from what was once Qing China if all of the various rebellions from 1855-75 succeed.
 
As people have said, Taiping Rebellion is the most easy way of getting two Chinese states.

It's more complicated than 'Taipings secure south', however. You definitely need copious amounts of foreign intervention to ensure a status quo - remember that, even before conquering the entirety of southern China, the Taiping were already hurriedly embarking on expeditions to attack Beijing and Tianjin. In a Chinese state system that puts so much weight on legitimacy (Mandate of Heaven and all that), 'legitimating' symbols of authority (e.g. the capital) will always have a high priority.

It's therefore not likely that the Taiping will be satisfied with the status quo unless the Qing receive strong backing from other powers, maybe Russia. But then again, a Qing supported by Russia will easily crush the Taiping so in turn, you need support for the Taipings as well, maybe in the form of the other Western powers.

Consistent backing from Western powers will be required throughout the 19thC to prop up the Taipings, as their militantly anti-Confucian ideology is going to cause a lot of instability and brain-drain from their realm (if factional infighting doesn't do them in as in OTL).
 
You're talking to someone whose TL includes PoD of the Northern Expedition succeeding! But absolutely, it's not nearly as simple as "the Taipings secure the south", and even if that is how things end up, it's still going to include a decade or more of civil war that's going to be rather messy for everyone involved.

The thing that really needs remembering with Taiping PoDs is that it's really hard for the Taipings to survive as the Taipings. It cannot be understated just how pants-on-head crazy Hong Xiuquan and his cult of personality were at times, and just how alienating they were to the existing elites even not going full-tilt with their very syncretic brand of Christianity. Either more durable long-term options will have to co-opt the revolution or it'll be doomed to constant unrest and pretenders, more or less just like IOTL.
 
You're talking to someone whose TL includes PoD of the Northern Expedition succeeding! But absolutely, it's not nearly as simple as "the Taipings secure the south", and even if that is how things end up, it's still going to include a decade or more of civil war that's going to be rather messy for everyone involved.

The thing that really needs remembering with Taiping PoDs is that it's really hard for the Taipings to survive as the Taipings. It cannot be understated just how pants-on-head crazy Hong Xiuquan and his cult of personality were at times, and just how alienating they were to the existing elites even not going full-tilt with their very syncretic brand of Christianity. Either more durable long-term options will have to co-opt the revolution or it'll be doomed to constant unrest and pretenders, more or less just like IOTL.

So maybe a coup against the self-proclaimed Jesus-bro and a shift to a more orthodox (probably Protestant, not Eastern Orthodox) branch of Christianity?
 

birdboy2000

Banned
A coup wouldn't work and wouldn't help for a state founded on Hong Xiuquan's personal legitimacy as a prophet-king.

Now, if he died *without* foul play and with a competent successor you might get somewhere. Even better if he dies in battle and can be used as a martyr.
 
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