AHC: Turn Japan into the second most powerful country on earth

With the PoD at January 1, 1945 at the least. Turn Japan as second only to the US and possibly a second superpower in terms of economy, military, and politics. I assume that for the military, Article 9 would have to be butterflied, or removed due to an unfortunate circumstance. Economically, avoiding the Lost Decade and ensuring continous population growth might be the key.

How can Japan strive to reach this role? And what would be the potential repurcussions of Japan wielding so much power?
 

Deleted member 1487

With the PoD at January 1, 1945 at the least. Turn Japan as second only to the US and possibly a second superpower in terms of economy, military, and politics. I assume that for the military, Article 9 would have to be butterflied, or removed due to an unfortunate circumstance. Economically, avoiding the Lost Decade and ensuring continous population growth might be the key.

How can Japan strive to reach this role? And what would be the potential repurcussions of Japan wielding so much power?
I suppose you could have the North Koreans capture South Korea in 1950 and the US is never able to invade the peninsula again, leaving Korea as the first Cold War defeat. That leaves Japan on the front lines, so all US investment goes into Japan, instead of Japan+South Korea. That could mean an end to the Japanese military ban, as Germany in the 1950s, who was also prevented from having a military, was forced to by the nature of the Cold War. With Korea being a defeat then Japan is the last line of defense. Have that plus say a defeat in South Vietnam then Japan really is the non-Communist outpost in the Pacific, as the continent is pretty much cleared of US bases in East Asia. Then have the US and China keep a hostile relationship (no Nixon goes to China moment) and Japan is an even more critical ally than ever, so it ends up becoming a re-militarized country with more US investment than ever, including a lot of favorable trade deals. Without US-Chinese rapprochement then China probably is unable to really economically prosper, so a Japan that is so much stronger doesn't have China, their rival for #2, get so high up the power ladder. Then you might have Japan being the second most powerful country in the world. Even then that would probably require the US to subsidize the Japanese military budget so it doesn't impact their economy that much.

Looking below you can see how South Korea falling and not being liberated would put Japan in a really tough spot and make them the front line of the Cold War in East Asia. They would need to remilitarize and the US would be very much interested in funding their economic success and military deterrent.

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From a standpoint of GDP they were exactly that until very recently when China passed them up. From a military perspective you'd need to go back farther than 1945.

For that to happen full blown war with China doesn't occur in July 1937 and instead Japan keeps building up Manchuria while giving it a proper industrialization. Efforts at "Japanification" continue and WWII is rode out in a state of neutrality. By the time all is said and done the Japanese Empire exits the 1940s as a borderline-superpower and a formidable counterweight to the USSR in Asia. The world is divided up into three spheres of influence: Capitalist, Communist, and Fascist, with the Japanese heading the last. A bizarre 3-way Cold War ensues.
 
The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis escalates into a limited nuclear war. The United States and the Soviet Union cripple each other with devastating attacks.

Japan escapes any form of serious attack, as the Soviets only make a few limited strikes on US forces stationed there. They know Japan isn't a military threat due to Article 9 of its constitution, so for most part leave it alone.

After the crippled superpowers make peace, Japan positions itself in a strong position economically, as the war had disrupted its trade and economic growth.

Together with its renewed trade ties with the West, assistance in rebuilding the US economy, and rapprochement with the People Republic of China, Japan's economy takes off at a rapid rate. With the US struggling to rebuild after the war, it advises Japan that it will have to go it alone in its defence. Japan, the economic giant, but military pygmy, is forced to follow suit militarily. With its huge GDP, it devotes a larger % to defence spending and almost over night is seen as an emerging military superpower.
 

Deleted member 1487

From a standpoint of GDP they were exactly that until very recently when China passed them up. From a military perspective you'd need to go back farther than 1945.

For that to happen full blown war with China doesn't occur in July 1937 and instead Japan keeps building up Manchuria while giving it a proper industrialization. Efforts at "Japanification" continue and WWII is rode out in a state of neutrality. By the time all is said and done the Japanese Empire exits the 1940s as a borderline-superpower and a formidable counterweight to the USSR in Asia. The world is divided up into three spheres of influence: Capitalist, Communist, and Fascist, with the Japanese heading the last. A bizarre 3-way Cold War ensues.
You don't think a US defeat in Korea due to say the Pusan perimeter collapsing would be enough to get Japanese remiliarization? I mean if South Korea is reunified with the North as a communist state then Japan is on the front lines and the US will need all the help it can get to deter Communist advancement in Asia, much like how they did with West Germany.

The problem of having Japan stay an independent colonial power is that the free trade environment that turned them into the #2 economy in the world after WW2 would not exist and they would never be able to reach their economic potential as an imperial state. Colonialism costs a LOT. It ended up bankrupting Britain and France trying to maintain theirs. Free global trade is ultimately what is more prosperous than mercantilism.
 
You don't think a US defeat in Korea due to say the Pusan perimeter collapsing would be enough to get Japanese remiliarization? I mean if South Korea is reunified with the North as a communist state then Japan is on the front lines and the US will need all the help it can get to deter Communist advancement in Asia, much like how they did with West Germany.

The problem of having Japan stay an independent colonial power is that the free trade environment that turned them into the #2 economy in the world after WW2 would not exist and they would never be able to reach their economic potential as an imperial state. Colonialism costs a LOT. It ended up bankrupting Britain and France trying to maintain theirs. Free global trade is ultimately what is more prosperous than mercantilism.

The Japanese would have rearmed, but they would never have become the second strongest military power in the world in any reasonable timeframe, especially after World War II and with the US as their nominal protector.

As far as international business goes, the Japanese recovery after World War II primarily stemmed (aside from liberalization of society and the introduction of democracy) from manufacturing and later electronics, both of which would be massively increased following further absorption of Manchuria and retention of Taiwan and Korea. Development of the latter two may have been retarded (less so in the future DPRK), but integration into a single economic bloc would not necessarily have precluded the notion of either free trade with the West or the creation of a global powerhouse. The British Empire, for example, accounted for some 25 percent of the world's GDP at its height. Plus, Britain and France (on top of possessing a much, shall we say, 'looser' grip on their colonies) were imperial powers at the twilight of their influence in the aftermath of two destructive world wars. In the East Japan was still rising.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Japanese would have rearmed, but they would never have become the second strongest military power in the world in any reasonable timeframe, especially after World War II and with the US as their nominal protector.

As far as international business goes, the Japanese recovery after World War II primarily stemmed (aside from liberalization of society and the introduction of democracy) from manufacturing and later electronics, both of which would be massively increased following further absorption of Manchuria and retention of Taiwan and Korea. Development of the latter two may have been retarded (less so in the future DPRK), but integration into a single economic bloc would not necessarily have precluded the notion of either free trade with the West or the creation of a global powerhouse. The British Empire, for example, accounted for some 25 percent of the world's GDP at its height. Plus, Britain and France (on top of possessing a much, shall we say, 'looser' grip on their colonies) were imperial powers at the twilight of their influence in the aftermath of two destructive world wars. In the East Japan was still rising.
They don't need to be #2 for a while, it would be a process of the long term as the threats developed from the mainland Asia communist bloc. I'd imagine by the 1970s-80s without a detente with China Japan would be built up as THE premier regional military after the fall of South Vietnam.

Japanese industry was only able to get the market penetration for their industrial development to matter due to the US global trade system that was created post-WW2. That and the teachings of Deming, who went over there to educate Japanese industry about production quality and efficiency. The Japanese model that became so successful was built not out of domestic business philosophy, but rather American methods taught by US businessmen, as well as the enforced breakup of the Zaibatsu.

The heyday of the British Empire was in a world that was not globally interconnected as it is now and the imperial model was dying in the face of American style global trade; the Japanese and Nazi mercantilist trade block model was a throw back that was economically stunting compared to the post-WW2 model of global trade and the end of colonialism.
 
Avoiding World War 2 should do it. Japan was rising, the benefits of neutrality would be economic growth, industrialization and technological innovation. They had plenty of natural resources in their colonies, would be able to take the leading role in th Asia-Pacific region and would have produced nuclear weapons by the early 1960's at the latest, but more likely in the 50's.
 
With the PoD at January 1, 1945 at the least. Turn Japan as second only to the US and possibly a second superpower in terms of economy, military, and politics. I assume that for the military, Article 9 would have to be butterflied, or removed due to an unfortunate circumstance. Economically, avoiding the Lost Decade and ensuring continous population growth might be the key.

How can Japan strive to reach this role? And what would be the potential repurcussions of Japan wielding so much power?
Force China to suffer even more under some radical Communists or under constant civil upheaval. That'll do the trick and Japan'll stay in the 1980s.
 
make Godzilla, Kaiju and Gundam a reality and being controlled by the Japanese, then will become the most powerful nation in the world
 
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