AHC: Turkey as a Great Power

With a POD after 1923, and without changing the current borders of the Republic of Turkey, have Turkey today be a Great Power (both economically and geopolitically) on par with Japan or France.
 

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With a POD after 1923, and without changing the current borders of the Republic of Turkey, have Turkey today be a Great Power (both economically and geopolitically) on par with Japan or France.
Its getting there. I don't think you could get it any sooner though. It just have too far to recover and develop to make that possible. A POD of no WW1 leaving the Ottoman Empire intact could probably get you there.
 
If they stayed out of WW1 and somehow stay intact they will be. To much control over oil not to be.
 
Maybe there is more trade going on between Russian and the rest of the world .This trade goes through the Bosphorus which is taxed by Turkey .And Turkey could also become a regional industrial region making arms for the Balkans .
 
Well, as I said, it has to be the same area as OTL Turkey, and the POD is post-1923.


The amount of industrial output Turkey needs to be in possession of to be a great power is simply too much for its population base... It would have to be years ahead of anyone in terms of technology to do this in any way. There is almost no way that in the long run that Turkey could outcompete the much larger population of the U.S, Russian Empire (once industrialized), etc... It like UK, France, Netherlands, Spain, Austria, etc have only one chance at being a world power in terms of how the U.S is and that is to dominate other areas and increase their producing power above their normal capacity. So I say ASB....


Perhaps a different kind of superpower? Maybe if Turkey remains Islamic and attempts to play a unifying role within the Ummah. Still it has a real competitor in the form of Saudi Arabia and Iran, likely they (Turkey) will lose this war of influence. With or without oil, Saudi Arabia over the years has had incredible Ulema compared to other nations.
 
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The amount of industrial output Turkey needs to be in possession of to be a great power is simply too much for its population base... It would have to be years ahead of anyone in terms of technology to do this in any way. There is almost no way that in the long run that Turkey could outcompete the much larger population of the U.S, Russian Empire (once industrialized), etc... It like UK, France, Netherlands, Spain, Austria, etc have only one chance at being a world power in terms of how the U.S is and that is to dominate other areas and increase their producing power above their normal capacity. So I say ASB....


Perhaps a different kind of superpower? Maybe if Turkey remains Islamic and attempts to play a unifying role within the Ummah. Still it has a real competitor in the form of Saudi Arabia and Iran, likely they (Turkey) will lose this war of influence. With or without oil, Saudi Arabia over the years has had incredible Ulema compared to other nations.

OP specifies Great POwer on a par with France or Japan.


Turkey is already bigger population wise than France.

It's per capita is only a fourth of France's though....


So a POD that greatly increases economic growth is required.

One that also increases it's leadership role would also be good, in the Islamic world and as part of NATO or the EU....
 
Intransigent Southerner, I believe your challange will be met by OTL in some 20-50 years' time. So let's just wait, it's getting there.

John7755, Saudis have incredible ulema? What are you smoking. The Wahhabis have always been jokes, backwards know-nothings. But, unfortunately, since the downfall of the Ottoman Empire, the inmates have taken over so to say and are now running the show, threatening to bring downfall to a great civilization the world over. The Kemalist secularists have decimated the traditional ulema and similar things happened elsewhere and the neo-Kharijites found an opening to spead their blood-soaked influence around. But even this would not have been achieved without the West's support for fundamentalists in the Muslim word cca. 1977-1995-ish.

Edit: Find a way for Menderes to not be ousted by a coup and afterwards after a little while be defeated democratically and concede the loss of such election. Then get Turgut Ozal a looong looong term in office in the 80's and boom!, you'll have Turkey in a slightly better position. I will say nothing of Ozal's death. I fully support the official version. No really, I do, nothing suspicious there; I'd never dream of disagreeing.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Well Turkey has a population about equal to Germany so, if it followed reasonably sound economic policies, stayed out of WWII and kept a minimal force during the cold war, then Turkey would be on par with Germany.

Her income is listed as 18,000 PPP dollars. An increase of 2% in her annual growth rate would bring that to 108,000. Very slight changes over a long period of time really add up
 
Calling France or Japan 'Great Powers' is a stretch though. It's one of the four major regional powers of the Middle East though, which also include Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
 
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