AHC: Tsarism overthrown between 1816 and 1913

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Could the Tsarist system in Russia have plausibly fallen before a revolution at any point between the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of the First World War?

What could make revolutionaries succeed not only in initial overthrow, but also in defeating any reactionary attempts to restore the monarchy?

In parallel with OTL, the "obvious" first places to look are any of the wars of the intervening period, for instance defeat in the Crimean War, Ottoman Wars, or Japanese War, or another alternative war or version of these war, possibly against more enemies, leading to discrediting of the regime.

But are there non-war related causes potentially being overlooked?
 
I don't think your first look should be towards wars, but rather wank either of the two revolutions that did happen in the timeframe:
the Decembrist revolt in 1825 and 1905 revolution. The first one could have succeded with quite a bit of luck, the second would need a much more uncompromising position of the Tsar.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
When I brought up the Decembrist revolt as a PoD on another board I got a pretty brutal takedown of its plausibility.

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!s.../soc.history.what-if/wP0Pycm0xuA/tmdqzPTnBAAJ


"Attempt of a reign of a terror and then he is either executed or assassinated.
An idea that, even if the immediate imperial family is exterminated, including
Constantine who was in Warsaw, everybody else is capitulates and lets a bunch
of the nobodies to do whatever they want in the Russian Empire is preposterous
for the early XIX. Time of the military coups was over and there would be plenty
of the high-ranking military commanders who would have no problem with squashing
the rebels. Even in the capital they had very few military units that followed
them and, as OTL demonstrated, their military abilities were pathetic (these
units just had been staying on the open square until artillery arrived and
ended the whole circus). On the South, there was a single infantry regiment
and even this regiment was following Muravievs after they provided a free booze
and by the time the government troops arrived, this regiment hardly was a
fighting unit (those who did not desert, were too drunk and did not obey their
leaders).

So, it works as following: the rebels are assassinating the imperial family
(taking into an account their ability to do anything right, I doubt that they
managed even this but let it be) including Constantine who is in Warsaw and
in whose name they started rebellion (soldiers had been told that Constitution
is a name of Constantine's wife). They did manage to kill Miloradovich
(commander of St-Petersburg garrison) but there are plenty of generals
even in St-Petersburg, most of them with the extensive experience of the
Napoleonic Wars and not sympathetic to the revolutionary cause. Taking into
an account that legitimacy of the rebels is zero, it is a matter of few hours
or couple days before their troops (optimistically, they had 3000 on Senatsky
Square but probably less) are defeated: in OTL 3 artillery pieces were enough
for the task."
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If Russia loses the Turkish War of the 1870s badly, can this give an opening to a Nihilist, or Bakuninite or Kropotkinite Anarchist revolution?

Or were those guys and their movements no-hopers in the 19th century?
 
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