AHC: Tsar Šćepan Mali of Montenegro Survives and Thrives

A fun story, Šćepan Mali took control of Montenegro and united the various tribes bu claiming to be Tsar Peter III of Russia.

While ruling from 1767 to 1773 he managed to reform the army and defeated the Ottomans (1768) and Venetians (1770). He received recognition from Russia after admitting he wasn't Peter and being named Tsar Šćepan I. He was assainated in 1773.

An assassination is fairly easy to butterfly away, but could someone who knows more about the situation and region weigh in on what the situation would be like if he survived?
 
Šćepan's rise screeched to a halt after he was crippled in a mining accident in 1770; after that, his power gradually waned and even keeping him alive would not necessarily change much. Ideally, you'd want to butterfly away the assassination by avoiding this accident itself.

If Šćepan survived (and remained healthy), he could continue to create the roots of a modern-type state in Montenegro, establishing a proper army and administration while navigating the dangerous and complex dance of Ottoman internal politics.

There's a hard limit to what he can accomplish - Montenegro was tiny at the time and its resources very limited. But the butterflies could still have some interesting effects, especially when you get to the French Revolutionary Wars. I'll quote from an earlier post of mine:

In OTL, the Montenegrins (with their allies from Boka and elements of a Russian fleet) managed to give Napoleon's troops a bloody nose. In this scenario, the nose would be even bloodier; the Montenegrins might even take Ragusa from the French, but they might not necessarily be able to hold it.
Now, some bigger opportunities crop up with the progress of the Serbian Uprising. In OTL, the Serbian revolutionaries almost managed to link up with Montenegro, but were forced to pull back. Scepan's Montenegro might be strong enough to complete that link-up. If this happens, it means revolutionary Serbia is generally strengthened and given breathing room on one front; the Ottoman Empire is cut off from Bosnia; and most importantly, it means a Russian army can march down to the Adriatic sea and appear in Napoleon's "Illyrian Provinces" in Dalmatia...

In other words, a Russian-led force will be able to attack and conquer French Dalmatia at some unclear (but no doubt very inconvenient) moment. Maybe Russia would even join the War of the Fifth Coalition...
 
He goes on to unite Montenegro as a considerable local power; he still doesn't get to formally replace the Bishop, but is likely opposed by a minority pro-Austrian party supporting said Bishop. When in 1781 Austria and Russia strike their OTL anti-Ottoman Alliance, he is advised to prepare for War and to act as a thorn in the Turkish side with promise of full recognition.

When War erupts, he does as well as OTL Peter does and is eventually recognized as the real ruler of Montenegro or gains an equal title under Ottoman suzerainty (such as Lord of Rashka); after that, it's harder to say what would happen as there are, again, two possibilities; he either goes on to expand Montenegro North and East, or he tries his hand at becoming lord of what OTL became the Principality of Serbia.
 
Ironically, Šćepan Mali being succesful butterflies away Njegoš, thanks to whom most people know of him in OTL - no Lažni car Šćepan Mali. And basically destroys one of the main pearls of Serbo-Croatian/Serbian/Montenegrin (*) literature.

(* Delete whatever is not appropriate to your own ideological narrative.)
 
Top