AHC: Total split between Austria and Hungary btwn late 1866 and 1900

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Could the two have separated entirely in this era rather than moving to the dual monarchy?
 
The best chance to seperate them would have been 1848-49. At that point Russia helped Austria to defeat the Hungarian revolution. If Russia didnt had an emperor at that time who had conservative solidarity as his driving principle than i think they might have separated at that time. Especially if the Russians decided that an Austrian Empire is in their way to Constantinople and backed Hungary instead.

In the timeframe you mentioned its a bit more tricky. I think its important to note that the Ausgleich was a huge compromise on both sides - not just the Austrian. Frankly speaking it became one of the most important question in hungarian inside politics during the whole period. There always was a ruling party who supported the Ausgleich and there was one that refused to accept it. More than one time the party that initially refused the treaty came to power but after that they didnt do anything about it and in the end a new party emerged that tried to get votes by saying that they refuse the Ausgleich.

What my point is that there was an anti-Ausgleich sentiment during the whole era by the voters in Hungary but all the important politicans accepted it - whatever they said before the elections. The situation was not near eruption so there was no chance of another hungarian revolution with the goal of separation.

What if there was no Ausgleich?
The Ausgleich was initially between Hungary and the Monarch Franz Joseph and not Austria. The Austrian parlaiment wasnt part of the negotiations and was only asked to sign after the former two agreed and everything was already compleeted.

Hungarian side: In 1866 Hungarian leaders were ready to accept it - near all of them. This of course didnt mean the ex-revolutioneries of 1848 who lived in exile. One of them was pardoned around this time and went home with the goal to prevent the Ausgleich but than he saw that even those who were oppesed to it at home only did so because they wanted better terms - not because they refused the treaty. So Hungary wanted the treaty and i dont see any chance they refusing it if the Austrian side accepted.

Austria: after the defeats of 1859 and 1866 Austria needed a change. First there was a monetary reason: it was much harder to get loans as an absolute monarchy so they needed a constitution which at least would be supported by part of the people. This was more thrue because the state was building on 2 things : the burocracy and the army and the latter had suffered some serious defeats. If Franz Joseph didnt make a compromise and tried to aphold the absolutistic system sooner or later there would have been another revolution - and i dont think only the Hungarians would have been that revolted. This would have destroyed the Habsburg Empire but i dont think that that would be only a separation of Austria and Hungary.



So if you want only those 2 to separate in this time period i dont think thats possible. If you dont mind another territories becoming independent than yes.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
...anyway you could have Hungary bequeathed to another Habsburg to be king of an independent, but allied, Hungary?

I get the feeling that Cisleithania, while smaller, will be better off without Hungary, its underdevelopment and its ethnic feuds with Balkan neighbors.

Cisleithania would have an odd, stringy shape and a Dalmatian exclave, but would not be any skinnier than countries like Norway, Chile, Vietnam, Laos, Czechoslovakia or Cuba.
 
Independent Hungary is untenable. They needed Austria to prop up their rule over the huge swaths of territory that has no Magyars at all!

Hungary was an albatross over the neck of Austria. Austria-Bohemia would have not been an empire without it, but it would have been a prosperous modern country (the disaster that was Galica could go to, couldn't it?).

w/o Austria, independent Hungary loses Croatia which becomes a close ally of Vienna and also Transylvania which is conquered by Romania. The Serb areas slip away. Can they retain Slovakia?

Rump Hungary is drawn into an Austro-German orbit anyway.

So, that's why I think the Ausgleich happened.
 
An independent aristocratic Hungary is untenable. When only a fraction of a percent (or there abouts) of the population can vote in an era of rising ethnic nationalism... But to say Hungary would with certainty get an ATL Trianon is silly. I'd wager if the Hapsburgs were to have actively joined the Crimean War against the Russians, the latter would potentially be supportive of a break away Hungary if the conditions are right.
 
I suppose you are suggesting a egalitarian pluralistic Hungary that didn't exist, then yeah sure. But Hungary was aristocratic, chauvinistic and exclusionary per se in the 19th and early 20th century. No way they are holding on to Croatia and the eastern parts of their "Apostolic" Kingdom without someone propping that up. Hence, the Ausgleich.
 
Russia can not want AH to split. If knew that, if this happened, the austrian part of Poland could become the kernel of a new independant Poland that would create an irresistible attraction for the russian part of Poland.
 
I think it's a given that if the Austrian Empire implodes Russia moves in and takes Galitzia. Even Prussia/Germany would welcome it.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The Hungarians are unlikely to ever seek a full split. The Hungarian nobility was hated not only by the oppressed minorities but by the Hungarian masses so they are unlikely to get much support for a rebellion

On the other hand, Franz Joseph could always terrorize the Hungarian nobility with the prospect of universal manhood suffrage which would break their power (and cost them a lot of money).

So for all their obnoxiousness, their power is quite limited. Besides, they were terrified of the Russians and any split with Austria would mean the Cossacks would be coming over the passes.

All in all, the system was quite stable despite repeated disagreements over the details.
 
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