AHC: Tories in Government for the 08' Crash

Okay another challenge.

Put the Tories in government just in time for the 2008 economic crash.

Rules:

- Any Tory Leader.

- Must defeat Labour in a general election before hand.

- Preferably a majority but a coalition is acceptable.

- NO national governments.

- Labour must win the next election in a LANDSLIDE (97' style)

Alright. GO!
 
If they're going to be put out of power by the following election then they're probably going to have to be blamed for the crash in the way that Labour was. In which case you're probably looking at them being in power from at least 2001.

Could we be looking at a "No Falklands" POD where Thatcher doesn't get a second term and Michael Foot becomes PM in 1983? Then power switches fairly regularly between the parties with the Tories ending up in power in 2001?
 

AndyC

Donor
Easy.
Gordon Brown goes for the Election that Wasn't in 2007. The marginals polls prove accurate, and Brown has a bad campaign (which is plausible enough).
Lib Dem Cleggasm doesn't happen.
Result:
CON 290
LAB 285
LD 50

Cameron goes for a minority Govt with a view to a 1 year 'cut and run' (no current economic crisis to push them to a Coalition). Unfortunately, in that 1 year minority, the crash happens ...
 
Easy.
Gordon Brown goes for the Election that Wasn't in 2007. The marginals polls prove accurate, and Brown has a bad campaign (which is plausible enough).
Lib Dem Cleggasm doesn't happen.
Result:
CON 290
LAB 285
LD 50

Cameron goes for a minority Govt with a view to a 1 year 'cut and run' (no current economic crisis to push them to a Coalition). Unfortunately, in that 1 year minority, the crash happens ...

And then... :D
 
And then... :D

Well, the only problem then is that they could, quite plausibly, claim that they've been unable to tackle any sort of structural issues in the year they've been in power when running a minority government, and that it's a combination of 'Labour's legacy and Labour's intrasigence' that's caused the problem. I'd imagine he now uses the crisis to call for an election in 2008/9 (need strong leadership etc.) and is unlikely to lose by a landslide (though a narrow loss is possible).

Really you are looking at needing at least two elections prior to the crash (which might be avoided or altered as a consequence) to get this result.
 
Kinnock narrowly wins in 1992
Clarke wins Conservative leadership
Clarke manages to emerge largest party in a hung parliament in 1997
Coalition with Conservatives and Liberal Democrats
Couple of defections over Europe
Kinnock resigns and Blair takes over as Labour leader
Britain enters the Eurozone in 1999
The economy is ticking over reasonably well
Another election is called, early in 2000
Only a handful of seats change hand in Labour's favour under Tony Blair
The coalition continues as before and Blair remains as Labour leader
The effective deadlock continues, little really changes, the Lib Dems manage to pull the Conservatives to the left with Clarke, annoying backbenchers
Blair supports a war in Iraq, when the war ends up a catastrophe without Britain's involvement, he is widely discredited
Another election is called in 2004, this takes advantage of Blair's weaknesses
Conservatives win a reasonable majority of around 20 seats
Come 2006, Clarke is ageing and forced out with backbenchers rallying around William Hague
Blair is replaced with Gordon Brown
Hague's policies are increasingly rightwing, which annoys many of the voters the Conservatives nabbed off the Lib Dems and Labour
Brown regularly criticises Hague for lacking a mandate for his policies which are 'harmful to working people' though Hague ridicules it by arguing the economy is doing well etc
The crash comes in 2007/8, there's a massive run on Northern Rock, Hague opts for letting the banks collapse, the problems spread to Halifax which follows suit, with the financial sector crumbling and Brown criticising and calling for nationalisation, Hague is forced to u-turn as the election looms
Hague's support collapses even more and the Conservative left plot to dump him for David Cameron as an acceptable moderate but fail
2009, an election is called and Labour manages to win a 180 seat majority with the Lib Dems taking numerous seats from the Conservatives who lurch rightwards
Brown (free of any baggage he had in OTL as Chancellor, plus he can blame the EU problems bubbling in the background on the inept Conservatives) sets about on the economy, any benefits in terms of the deficit are outweighed by the worse position of the banks
Labour win a second election in 2013 with a smaller but still sizeable majority, Brown remains PM until 2016 when he steps aside
 
Could Tony Blair have possibly failed badly enough in 1997-2001 to lose the 2001 elections?

It's pretty difficult, I think- part of the reason Blair's majority was so large was a widespread perception that the Tories just didn't get it, and that sense of "getting it", didn't especially change over the 1997-2001 period IOTL. Rather like today's Labour in reverse, the Tories under Hague were fond of apologising for not being Right-wing enough, but shied away from apologising for what the public actually wanted an apology for.

You can certainly have the party do somewhat better in 2001 and 2005, but I think the scale of the 1997 defeat, and the attitude of the party in the late 90s means that you'll be struggling to get much more than about 235 seats maximum in 2005, which of course is nowhere close to being able to govern. Butterflies will be flapping around in any case, probably a better Tory showing in 2001 and 2005 means Blair is out of office sooner- maybe he'd even go in 2005, allowing Brown to win a third term for Labour in his own right in 2006.
 
Try:

Major realises its over and calls the election in 1996 rather than grimly hang on.
Labour win-Alt 1996 with thumping 160 majority.
Conservatives elect either Hague or Portillo (probably doesn't matter but Portillo *might* be better)
2000 election called for October 2000. Then fuel protests happen.
Rawness of it all means Labour win but with a reduced majority of (say) 80.
Conservatives dump leader for Clarke.
9/11 happens and lots of other bad things, but things in Iraq go really bad, worse so than OTL.
2005 ATL election rolls around and the Conservatives win by a whisker.... (or better, form a coalition).

Personally, unlikely, but the alternatives are to take the POD back to 1992 or even earlier and butterflies will probably take the 2008 crash away by then.
 
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