AHC: Top 20 languages by 1900.

[John7755 يوحنا]

With a POD in 1200, make the following languages the top 20 most spoken languages by native speakers. Have fun!

1. Mandarin Chinese (all types)
2. Portuguese
3. Spanish
4. Hindi
5. French
6. Arabic
7. English
8. Bengali
9. Greek
10. German
11. Russia
12. Japanese
13. Punjabi
14. Javanese
15. Vietnamese
16. Persian
17. Telugu
18. Wu
19. Malay
20. Korean

So what are some ideas?

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

That looks a lot like OTL, give or take a language - the only real outlier I see there is Greek. Which of these languages weren't among the top 20 spoken in 1900 IOTL?

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

That looks a lot like OTL, give or take a language - the only real outlier I see there is Greek. Which of these languages weren't among the top 20 spoken in 1900 IOTL?

Well I put things in very different order. French for instance is not in the top In otl. Further, as I said the order is highly changed, Russian is farther down as is Spanish, English, Arabic, Bengali, Punjabi, etc.... Turkish does not appear.

 

[Youngmarshall]

Well I put things in very different order. French for instance is not in the top In otl. Further, as I said the order is highly changed, Russian is farther down as is Spanish, English, Arabic, Bengali, Punjabi, etc.... Turkish does not appear.

Greek as the nineth most spoken language and no turkish means a byzantine wank of some sort, you'd suppose.

But Portuguese at 2nd and Spanish at 3rd means you need the iberians to still be world colonizers which implies hostile control over the red sea.

 

[fluttersky]

Here's the list from the OP, along with OTL data on the number of native speakers (from 2007 and 2010 so it's a bit outdated):

Edit: Never mind, I just noticed the OP specifies most native speakers by 1900. Don't know what the OTL figures for 1900 are.

1. Mandarin Chinese (all types) - OTL 1st, 955 million speakers
2. Portuguese - OTL 6th, 215 million speakers
3. Spanish - OTL 2nd, 405 million speakers
4. Hindi - OTL 4th, 310 million speakers
5. French - OTL 18th, 75 million speakers
6. Arabic - OTL 5th, 295 million speakers
7. English - OTL 3rd, 360 million speakers
8. Bengali - OTL 7th, 205 million speakers
9. Greek - OTL 75th, 12 million speakers
10. German - OTL 11th, 95 million speakers
11. Russian - OTL 8th, 155 million speakers
12. Japanese - OTL 9th, 125 million speakers
13. Punjabi - OTL 10th, 100 million speakers
14. Javanese - OTL 12th, 82 million speakers
15. Vietnamese - OTL 16th, 76 million speakers
16. Persian - OTL 29th, 45 million speakers
17. Telugu - OTL 15th, 76 million speakers
18. Wu - OTL 13th, 80 million speakers
19. Malay - OTL 14th, 77 million speakers
20. Korean - OTL 17th, 76 million speakers

Languages that are in OTL's top twenty but not in TTL's top twenty:

Marathi - OTL 19th, 73 million speakers
Tamil - OTL 20th, 70 million speakers

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Well I put things in very different order. French for instance is not in the top In otl. Further, as I said the order is highly changed, Russian is farther down as is Spanish, English, Arabic, Bengali, Punjabi, etc.... Turkish does not appear.

Oh, you mean those 20 in order. Got it.

So we need a POD that results in (a) the Ottoman Empire either being stillborn or smaller, (b) the British Empire existing (can't get to 7th with just the home islands) but not as big, (c) considerably larger Francophone and Lusophone worlds, and (d) slightly less diversity of Indian languages.

Let's start with a Mongol-Byzantine-Crusader alliance in the early 13th century that crushes the Seljuk state (ETA: it would be the successor states by that time) and pre-empts the Ottomans. As the Mongol dynasts' star fades in the later 13th century and the Crusader states weaken, they rely on a resurgent Byzantine empire for protection; ultimately, the Mongols become Christian and the Levant falls under a loose hegemony with Greek as the lingua franca. Arabic remains the language of the Arabian peninsula, Egypt, and the Maghreb, also spreading to parts of East Africa, while much of Mesopotamia and the Hindu Kush falls under a Persian sphere of influence during the post-Mongol power vacuum.

The Mongols and their successors do, however, last long enough in central Asia to pre-empt Russian conquest of Siberia.

In the meantime, western European powers rise, but none can establish a lasting advantage over the others. This is particularly felt in India, which is divided into Portuguese, French and British possessions as well as several independent buffer states, with France controlling at least Tamil Nadu and Portugal controlling Maharashtra. At a stroke, this adds several tens of millions of people to both the Francophone and Lusophone worlds, and presumably, France and Portugal's early overseas adventures lead them to develop stronger navies and do somewhat (albeit not overwhelmingly) better in the *Scramble for Africa. Oh, and Portugal gets Kyushu too with the aid of a rebellion of Christian daimyo, which accounts for the lower prevalence of Japanese - you pretty much have to take away one of the home islands for Japanese to be spoken less than OTL.

Natural fluctuations should take care of everything else - the difference between 12th and 20th place isn't a great deal, so random shifts in population growth might account for, say, Wu being slightly less prevalent or Vietnamese slightly more so.

 

[Baron Steakpuncher]

1: Mandarin Chinese probably ended up similar to the modern variation
2: A lusaphone north or south america might do it. Perhaps the acquisition of areas of Spain such as Galicia and cadiz. Africa probably had a longer lasting or maybe greater Portuguese presence.
3: For Spanish to remain in third that means it lost out on some areas but still did pretty well. Maybe the Philippines went to Portugal this time?
4: Similar situation to OTL i imagine, though perhaps a bit further southwards with the large punjabi and bengali dialects.
5: Is MUCH bigger than otl. France must have had a Major success for it to be in fifth. Maybe a francophone north american east coast region? Possibly had a linguistic effect on Africa.
6: Maybe arabic didn't become quite so permanent in the Maghreb this time around. Maybe It didn't get into Iran, either way it has a smaller number of speakers.
7: British empire must exist, but not have been quite so successful. No USA for sure, so probably colonised Aus and NZ. Either way, still around but diminished.
8: Bengal may not have retained quite the empire it had in OTL. Possibly the hinterlands remain with their own languages. Probably still the lingua franca around the region though.
9: The greek situation means not only did Byzantium survive but expanded.... Most probably the 4th crusade didn't go awry and the Rome of the East managed to keep its anatolian provinces, possibly expanding into syria, the balkans or maybe the black sea coast.
10: German size increased, means that Germany (or an equivalent) may have gotten off a colony or two? Or perhaps the german language gained and kept a few areas around modern day Poland or Hungary. Perhaps a state in the baltic region speaks german, interesting thoughts either way.
11: Russia is down three places from otl, most probably it never really expanded into central asia or the north caucuses. Siberia probably isn't russian come to think of it. (Or maybe russia never united, who knows)
12: Japan must not have had a population boom (or it did so later) May not have gained hokkaido either..
13: Similar situation to bengal id imagine
14 Maybe for whatever reason there were wars or plagues that effected the population of java so that it took a while to recover?
15: Vietnamese may have consolidated its domination of the south china sea coast. Probably the non vietnamese languages in the region are greatly diminished compared to otl.
16: The biggest surprise on this list, Iran must have become a major power for quite some time to get these results. Central Asia likely speaks Persian/farsi, or perhaps Iraq is more persianized. Massive gains have been made in any case, and Iran is likley a word power.
17: Telugu probably is similar to bengali and punjabi but more successful
18: Wu is similar to otl, maybe a wu state briefly formed?
19: Malay most likley got centralised into a state for a brief period
20 Unsure about history, will research

 

[B_Munro]

The Mongols and their successors do, however, last long enough in central Asia to pre-empt Russian conquest of Siberia.

Is preemption of Russia in Siberia really needed? [1] OTL 7th place is Bengali 205 million, which is more than the current population of Ukraine+Russia+Belarus. Keeping them out of Central Asia and not doing quite so well in the west should be enough even if they do a bit better demographically.

[1] Most previous debates on the subject have supported the notion that Russia was unlikely to have much competition for the forests north of the Steppe.

 

[Salvador79]

Wanking Portugal to the detriment of Spain calls for something to keep the other Iberian kingdoms from jumping on the American train and letting Portugal post a Cabral discovery claim and grab a lot of the Americas. Maybe Spain jumps in on the train later on. A later Spanish Empire might explain the increased position of German, as in the Low Countries still belong to a German continuum and maybe also state.

 

[Blackhills]

These numbers are counting only first language speakers, so I think it's a waste of time speculating about larger colonial empires in Africa and Asia (unless you're putting settler colonies there).

1. Mandarin Chinese (all types) - OTL 1st, 955 million speakers
OTL
2. Portuguese - OTL 6th, 215 million speakers
A stronger Portuguese Empire, in detriment of the Spanish and the English. We can have the Portuguese colonzing Newfoundland, the Plata basin and Pampas, some chuncks of Australia (plantations in Queensland, for exemple), and retaining Malacca, making it a Mestiço majority city. Also an earlier (the earlier the better) effort to put settlers in Angola and Mozambique.
3. Spanish - OTL 2nd, 405 million speakers
As I've said over there, let's give the Plata basin to the Portuguese. If more is needed to bring it down more, lets make some native language is some part of the Americas stay strong to the point of Spanish being forgotten after the end of the colonization, like what happened in the Philippines.
4. Hindi - OTL 4th, 310 million speakers
OTL
5. French - OTL 18th, 75 million speakers
A stronger French colonial empire, keeping most of it's North American possessions. We can also having them establising a colony in Western Australia. You can also have France proper avoiding the XIX demographic stagnation.
6. Arabic - OTL 5th, 295 million speakers
Some more non-Arabic speaker in the Arab world. Berbers n the Magreb, Copts in Egypt, and Syriacs in the Fertile Crescent.
7. English - OTL 3rd, 360 million speakers
As I've said, let's give good chuncks of North America and Australia to the French and Portuguese. To avoid a drastic loss of English speakers because of the French controling Canada and Louisiana, let's have the British colonizing OTL's American and Canadian Pacific coast. Also, have the Irish language stay strong in Ireland.
8. Bengali - OTL 7th, 205 million speakers
Make the Koch language stronger in northern Bengal.
9. Greek - OTL 75th, 12 million speakers
A surviving Byzantine Empire, keeping Anatolia, Antioch, Sicily, Calabria, Apulia, and Crimea.
10. German - OTL 11th, 95 million speakers
A slighty larger German population. Just avoiding WWII would have been enough for this.
11. Russian - OTL 8th, 155 million speakers
Avoid the fall of the Kazan, Astrakhan, and Sibir khanates, so keeping Russia restricted to Europe. Also avoid Russian expansion over the PLC, so to not create Russian-speaking populations in Belarus and Ukraine.
12. Japanese - OTL 9th, 125 million speakers
Make the Ainu stop Japanese advance to the north, and estabilish a kingdom in Hokkaido and Tohoku.
13. Punjabi - OTL 10th, 100 million speakers
Make the Gandhari language still spoken in the Hindko area.
14. Javanese - OTL 12th, 82 million speakers
Make Sundanese be spoken in Cirebon.
15. Vietnamese - OTL 16th, 76 million speakers
A slight strong Vietnamese presence both in the Mekong delta and in the mountainous northern frontier.
16. Persian - OTL 29th, 45 million speakers
Make the OTL Azeris speak Persian.
17. Telugu - OTL 15th, 76 million speakers
A stronger Hindi-Urdu presence in Telegana.
18. Wu - OTL 13th, 80 million speakers
Shanghai isn't founded.
19. Malay - OTL 14th, 77 million speakers
A smaller (or just no) Malay colonization of Borneo.
20. Korean - OTL 17th, 76 million speakers
Some parts of northern Korea are Sinified/Manchurized.

Marathi - OTL 19th, 73 million speakers
A stronger Hindi-Urdu, or Gondi, in Vidarbha.
Tamil - OTL 20th, 70 million speakers
A stronger Sinhalese in Sri Lanka, and Sri Lankan Moors stay speaking Arabic.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

@CassiusBSVP Great post!

However, some places in Africa do speak a European language as it's native. Look at Kinshasa for instance, some areas like that could become primary and of course the instance of South Africa.