AHC: Third Reich Able To Fight A Full Two-Fronted War For Years

As you know, in OTL a two-fronted war was the death of Nazi Germany. The Normandy landings severely weakened the Ostfront presence of the Heer/Waffen SS and consequently Bagration was a wild success, almost completely destroying Hitler's power in the East and enabling an outright conquest of eastern Germany. Of course, the pounding of the Luftwaffe over the skies of Europe contributed greatly to the ability of both the W. Allies and Soviets to achieve ultimate ground victory as well and that had been ongoing.

So, in this AHC that I have come up with as we near the anniversary of D-Day, make Nazi Germany able to successfully* resist both a full-strength Western Allied beachhead invasion into France or elsewhere in western Europe and the continuing advance of the Red Army simultaneously. The Nazis may or may not be able to successfully fully repel/push into the sea the initial Allied landing; it is up to you. (*They don't have to win, or successfully resist forever--just make a good showing so that they hold their territory for the most part for a fair length of time, or make the Allied/Soviet advances very slow and gradual, or are only ultimately stopped with The Bomb.)

For me, the easiest diversion to pull this off is to avoid the complete devastation of the German air force over the Reich so that the Nazis can keep air parity in the West for much longer, and air superiority in the East for much longer. Speed up the introduction of a relatively safe and reliable Messerschmitt 262 and/or the 190A-10s/Ds/Ta152s, perhaps better flak guns and successful introduction of the Ruhrstall X4 and similar anti-bomber guided missiles, perhaps. Also, the Nazis need far more practical tanks... instead of wasting so much time, money, and steel on worthless unreliable, gas-guzzling Tigers/Panthers, perhaps introduce something like a Panzer 3 or 4 with modern sloped armor and a bigger turret ring to fit a better gun, etc. If we must keep the Panther, then rework it into something more like the Stalin series--lower hull with thicker armor, a bigger gun, etc.

Creating some trouble in getting L-L over to the Russians would help too I would imagine... without tens of thousands of Studebakers, Shermans, various modern fighters (in some cases better than most if not all of what the VVS had in June 1944, such as P-51s), aluminum, and high-grade aviation and tank fuel, Bagration doesn't even remotely resemble what it did IOTL. A more successful U-Boat campaign? A stretch of severely choppy weather at sea that makes things dangerous for US supply ships?

A disclaimer: obviously I don't like Nazi Germany in any way and don't want them to have won or have survived longer in real life whatsoever--this is purely a theoretical AH exercise for me I am really curious about!

If someone has already made one or more threads on this, could you kindly link me?


MalcontentRex
 
The Reich needs a secure and sufficient flow of petroleum, as well as the capacity to refine it into aircraft fuel, preferably without having to resort to liquefying coal (thereby allowing it to be put to other industrial uses); all the planes and quality of a pilot training program/pipeline won't matter two cents if they can't keep trainers and jets in the air. Given the logistics of it all, a successful invasion of the Caucuses seems like the best option: not only is the infrastructure already in the ground, but you don't run the same risk of indictment with convoys on the Black Sea or that you would with any other route, nor the Herculean engineering task of getting it out of the Middle East. This gives you the basic tools needed to keep air cover and submersible raiders running in principal; a nessecity for any other strategic option
 
The Reich needs a secure and sufficient flow of petroleum, as well as the capacity to refine it into aircraft fuel, preferably without having to resort to liquefying coal (thereby allowing it to be put to other industrial uses); all the planes and quality of a pilot training program/pipeline won't matter two cents if they can't keep trainers and jets in the air. Given the logistics of it all, a successful invasion of the Caucuses seems like the best option: not only is the infrastructure already in the ground, but you don't run the same risk of indictment with convoys on the Black Sea or that you would with any other route, nor the Herculean engineering task of getting it out of the Middle East. This gives you the basic tools needed to keep air cover and submersible raiders running in principal; a nessecity for any other strategic option

I wonder if Italy had stayed neutral Germany could have redirected trade through Italy to avoid the blockade.
 
my scenario would be Germany discovers the Matzen oilfield in Austria, as that seems most likely. also a pre-war plan to stockpile oil and maybe, instead of stolen artwork, they store it in salt mines?

in fact they need to start burying as much of their resources and production as possible (or otherwise hide it)

think the flak system is the only thing that could give them any respite from bombing, and some type of advanced, highly accurate system would have dual benefit of freeing 1000's of guns needed on Eastern Front.
 
*Jets get more attention earlier at the expense of rockets
*Combine and coordinate the Axis R&D efforts from day one into singular teams instead of 20+ working on detonation fuses etc.
*Full war production efforts and schedules from day one
*Make use of the captured Belgian and French material both for strategic bombing (MB.162 strategic bomber, Br.482 strategic bomber, NC.223 strategic bomber) and from all nations regarding other war material (Fusil Automatique Rifles, Belgian FN 1949 [early designs and prototypes were apparently captured by the Germans at Liege], Karabin wz. 1938M [Polish semi-automatic rifle already being made when Germany invaded], SVT-40, etc.)
*Finish the underground synthetic plants ideally using hydrogenation processes instead of the Fischer-Tropsch process

That should get things started...
 

Ian_W

Banned
my scenario would be Germany discovers the Matzen oilfield in Austria, as that seems most likely. also a pre-war plan to stockpile oil and maybe, instead of stolen artwork, they store it in salt mines?

in fact they need to start burying as much of their resources and production as possible (or otherwise hide it)

think the flak system is the only thing that could give them any respite from bombing, and some type of advanced, highly accurate system would have dual benefit of freeing 1000's of guns needed on Eastern Front.

If they bury resources and production, they arent using it to build the war machine that was so successful in 1941 and 1942.

The bombing campaign really only started doing brutal damage to the German war economy in 1944, by which time the Allied armies had well and truly started pushing back the Germans - and there is an argument that better flak means Bomber Command gets shifted to the Atlantic instead, and the aircraft engines it used go into fighter-bombers.
 
If they bury resources and production, they arent using it to build the war machine that was so successful in 1941 and 1942.

The bombing campaign really only started doing brutal damage to the German war economy in 1944, by which time the Allied armies had well and truly started pushing back the Germans - and there is an argument that better flak means Bomber Command gets shifted to the Atlantic instead, and the aircraft engines it used go into fighter-bombers.

I think he was referring to the practice of "burying" production facilities in the sense of moving them to underground/mountain/ect. locations in which the earth itself acts as a (fairly substantial) bunker to shield German industry from Allied bombing. Which of course would take them out of commision for awhile during the critical early stages as well as likely not be so good for the health and productivity of the workers at said war plants.

Speaking of aircraft engines, it woulden't hurt if Germany were to give out licenses and dies for production of its higher-quality machine parts to its Axis allies either. The Italian Air Force could really benefit from being able to produce high-powered engines, and it would help in encourage a greater level of standardization as well. Generally better co-ordination between the Axis nations in general actually, as well as possibly getting Vichy actively engaged and fighting/producing its own active defense on the Western front to ease the demand on German resources (Not getting Spain involved; they're more trouble than they're worth, but since France is in the war-court anyways...)
 
The Reich needs a secure and sufficient flow of petroleum, as well as the capacity to refine it into aircraft fuel, preferably without having to resort to liquefying coal (thereby allowing it to be put to other industrial uses); all the planes and quality of a pilot training program/pipeline won't matter two cents if they can't keep trainers and jets in the air. Given the logistics of it all, a successful invasion of the Caucuses seems like the best option: not only is the infrastructure already in the ground, but you don't run the same risk of indictment with convoys on the Black Sea or that you would with any other route, nor the Herculean engineering task of getting it out of the Middle East. This gives you the basic tools needed to keep air cover and submersible raiders running in principal; a nessecity for any other strategic option

There is some significant flow of petroleum under their territory.

The Oil fields of Matzen could provide 25 million barrels of oil.

https://www.ogj.com/articles/2003/03/vienna-basin-discovery-identifies-45-million-boe-in-place.html

While the oil fields of NW Germany and Schoonebeek Holland, could provide roughly 20 to 25 million.

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/netherlands/nam-to-redevelop-schoonebeek-onshore-oil-field

https://www.lbeg.niedersachsen.de/e...as-in-der-bundesrepublik-deutschland-936.html (Under the file name Erdolforderung 1932-1996, sorry will post which fields later)

So if found in the early 1930s, it would probably provide some big PODs early on. Might be enough to knock out Russia.

70 million barrels were used in Barbarossa in 1941, added oil if found in the early 30s would get an extra 45-50 million more barrels to it. Along with more oil to import in the late 30s to create a more mechanized Wehrmacht capable of operating longer distances.

https://ww2-weapons.com/military-expenditures-strategic-raw-materials-oil-production/

All the oil fields located in Nazi Germany were all discovered in the late 40s and early 50s with two exemptions being the late 50s. None of the oil fields were close to touching a mile deep, more than half are less than or around a 1000 meters, so very achievable for the technology Germany had in the late 20s/early30s.

The reason they never found it was because of Nazi thinking focusing on synthetic oil, rather than finding more oil. yet finding Schoonebeek first would have caused a domino effect considering all the other fields were close together, except for Matzen which was in Austria so that might require another POD.

I don't have time now, so later I'll probably post more sources on the depth of each field and how close the fields were together in the NW province of Germany.
 
Die Glocke succeeds as a time travel device allowing Hitler to know his enemies' plans, have advanced weapons, and wank WWII to Messianic levels. Otherwise, the sheer numbers and resources make it impossible. Guys, air power alone will make a two front war impossible unless the US stays isolationist to the extreme (unlikely). With just lend lease, the Soviets are coming even if the UK stays across their moat which they won't once the Nazis falter (ask Napoleon).
 
my scenario would be Germany discovers the Matzen oilfield in Austria, as that seems most likely
The Oil fields of Matzen could provide 25 million barrels of oil.

I have doubts as to whether 1930s-1940s drilling tech was good enough to drill deep.
Oil & Gas Journal said:
Producible oil and natural gas accumulations were found in 12 sandstone horizons while drilling to a depth of 2,926 m. .
 
I have doubts as to whether 1930s-1940s drilling tech was good enough to drill deep.

Wow thanks for misreading the article. You are looking at the MAXIMUM they drilled down to. The article states the oil is found in depths of 1300-2500 meters.

Also most of the Matzen oil is actually found in depths of around 1300-1700 meters.

http://www.wabweb.net/history/oel/noe.htm

Romania in 1932 had drilling techniques capable of reaching 2400 meters.

So I really ask you please practice your reading comprehension and not cherry pick parts of the article to the extreme end.
 
Wow thanks for misreading the article. You are looking at the MAXIMUM they drilled down to. The article states the oil is found in depths of 1300-2500 meters.

Also most of the Matzen oil is actually found in depths of around 1300-1700 meters.

http://www.wabweb.net/history/oel/noe.htm

Romania in 1932 had drilling techniques capable of reaching 2400 meters.

So I really ask you please practice your reading comprehension and not cherry pick parts of the article to the extreme end.

And that is why one should not post in the late night when one should really be going to sleep.
 
So, in this AHC that I have come up with as we near the anniversary of D-Day, make Nazi Germany able to successfully* resist both a full-strength Western Allied beachhead invasion into France or elsewhere in western Europe and the continuing advance of the Red Army simultaneously....

MalcontentRex

Churchill, returning to Britain in January 1942 by flying boat, is killed when the aircraft, just 100 km off course after the trans-Atlantic flight of over 4,000 km, makes landfall at Brest instead of Land's End, and is shot down by German flak. (RAF chief Portal and First Sea Lord Pound are killed too. OTL, Portal did a position check which found the error just five minutes out.) Churchill is succeeded by Sir Stafford Cripps, a maverick Labourite who had some Conservative support.

The shock of this causes FDR to have a health collapse; he dies in mid-February, succeeded by VP Henry Wallace.

By late 1942, the success of the renewed Axis offensive against the USSR has Stalin and a lot of the Anglo-American public calling for a "second front" immediately.

In place of OTL's TORCH, the US and Britain launch a far more ambitious attack, Operation MUSTANG: landings in Morocco, Spain, and Portugal. The more leftist US/UK leadership believe that Spain is a de facto Axis power, with the oppressed Spanish masses ripe for liberation. Also, Portugal, with its very long history of alliance with England and then Britain, will immediately cooperate with the Allies, giving them a great port in Lisbon. (And of course French North Africa will rush to the Allies.)

By staying on the defensive in Egypt and the Pacific, the US/UK stage MUSTANG in October 1942.

These expectations are all exploded very quickly. French forces in North Africa put up heavy resistance against weaker Allied forces, the Spanish fight hard too, and Portugal balks. Nonetheless the Allies manage to establish substantial beachheads on both sides of the Straits of Gibraltar. Despite substantial reinforcements from Germany and Italy, the Axis cannot eliminate these beachheads.

Without a "Darlan deal", French forces become de facto Axis Allies - fighting alongside Spanish forces in Morocco, for instance, and openly cooperating with German and Italian forces as they arrive.

There is a political effect inside Vichy France - all those figures opposed to closer ties to the Axis, or covertly favoring the Allies, are marginalized - many dismissed and replaced by pro-Axis and anti-Allied men. This includes the Deuxième Bureau, France's intelligence service, which in 1939-1940 was a full partner in the breaking of Germany's Enigma cryptosystem. The Poles who made the original breach fled to France in 1939, and had been employed by the Deuxième Bureau, even after the 1940 surrender. (Really! It was kept secret from the Germans of course, and presumably from Pétain, Laval, and company. The Poles had a center in unoccupied France, which OTL was shut down when the Germans moved in, in November 1942. Even then, the Germans learned nothing.) ITTL, the pro-Axis men now running the DB hand the whole thing to the Germans. ULTRA is blown, completely.

This is a disaster for the Allies, as it deprives them of a copious source of unimpeachble intelligence. In the Mediterranean, it largely eliminates the Allied threat to Axis shipping to North Africa, as Allied forces no longer know where the Axis ships are without scouting. In the Atlantic, it restores the blackout of TRITON, the U-boat cipher key, which had meant enormous shipping losses for most of 1942. It also means the loss of the HYDRA key, used by conventional German naval forces, which carried information about operations to escort departing and returning U-boats, and the TETIS key, used by the U-boat training command, so the Allies are even worse off than before.

Meanwhile, the Soviets beat the Germans at Stalingrad.

Ongoing 1943:

The Western Front (Iberia and Morocco): stalemate. Allied troops are green, and the U-boat menace bites deep into supplies from the US, while the Axis has the disaster on the Eastern Front sucking up reserves and difficulty moving supplies to Spain and Morocco.

Egypt: With improved supply and weaker 8th Army, Axis surge into Lower Egypt, stopping at the Suez Canal.

The Eastern Front: stalemate. The Axis isn't strong enough to break the Soviet line. But the demands of the Iberian Front, multiplied by its bad handling, and the losses to U-boats, leave the US/UK very little to ship to the USSR. So the Soviets can't push either.

THe US/UK also have to send and support additional forces in the Middle East to contain and drive back the Panzer Armee Afrika; also, they have to wage a substantial campaign to gain control of French West Africa. And they have to Do Something about the Pacific and SE Asia.

By late 1943, CVEs, VLR aircraft, and airborne search radar gradually turn the tide in the battle of the Atlantic, though far less dramatically than OTL. The US/UK push the Axis back in Egypt and Morocco, but make little progress in Iberia...

Is that good enough?
 
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And that is why one should not post in the late night when one should really be going to sleep.

It's all right. Sorry for being snappy.

Oh wait, I promised to include on other fields and not just Matzen. Here ya guys go:

For all of Germany on a general note, their oil production got to around 80k barrels in the 1957/58, without there being serious investments at all, as American oil companies wanted to focus on themselves supplying oil.

Ruhle -Founded 1949, Production reached 4.5 million in 1955, with depth being 850 meters
Georgsdorf -Founded 1944, yet not redrilled until 1946/47, Production reached 1.7 million in 1955,(page 10) not even stopping there, with depth being 800 meters
Barenburg - Founded 1953, Production reached 1.3 million in 1961(294k tonnes - 151k tonnes for 179 tonnes 1961), with deepest being 740 meters
Bramberge - Founded 1958, Production reached 4 million in 1966(page 21), with depth being 980 meters
Emlichheim - Founded 1944, yet not redrilled until 1946/47, Production reached 1.1 million in 1955(page 10), with depth of 950 meters
Scheerhorn - Founded 1949, Production reached 1.1 million in 1959(page 14), with depth of 1150 meters
Eddesse-Nord - Founded 1950, Production reached 300,000 barrels in 1956(page 11), with depth of 140 meters

Lingen - Founded in 1942, yet was drilled to a depth of 1456 meters, showcasing their drilling tech, whats impotant is this area wasnt being detected until 1937, with seismic exploration, further proving you wrong that they had the ability to detect and drill for the oil fields. Production was at 500,000 barrels in 1950

TOTAL GERMANY UNDISCOVERED: 14.8 million barrels, before the war starts

Holland:

The oil boom didn't start until 1947, and by 1957/1958 oil production reached around 10 million barrels, many of them spilling from the Schoonebeek.

Schoonebeek was founded in 1947, at a depth of 828 meters, with production reaching a high 8.7 million barrels(occasionally certain oil fields are grouped into Schoonebeek), staying steady around that rate, not declining until the late 1960s.

TOTAL HOLLAND UNDISCOVERED: 8.7 - 10 million barrels, before the war starts

So yeah, seems to be around 40-50 million possible oil barrels of crude oil production if reached before a few years before the war. If found before 1934/5, this would help immensely with Barbarossa, as they now have more oil production along with more to import.

Along with the fact that the discovery of Schoonebeek will get the Royal Dutch Shell involved as their oil field along with multiple other oil fields in Germany will want them to get more profits at domestic oil fields. RDS had British and French owners in their stakes so there will much foreigns investment in German and Dutch oil fields. This will help the Germans save on reichmarks from their already massive spending economy from military goods. Can be used to spend on Matzen and possibly fund a few more factories to build for war.
 
With a few PODs I think it is doable.

In Nov 1941, Rommel almost captured Britain's fuel supplies in North Africa and could have decisively won the North African campaign.
In July 1942, Hitler changed the Case Blue strategy, which prevented Stalingrad falling on the march.

Both of these PODs may lead to a 1942 landing in France as a desperate attempt to save Russia from collapse. This would fail, as the Dieppe Raid shows. However, there is no guarantee that Stalingrad falls that Stalin shoots all of his generals and begins a general Russian collapse. So, Russia will keep fight and the Wallies will lick their wounds.

With Russian oil production cut off (about 50%), and Ukraine not recaptured in 1943, between 43-44 Germany impresses 1-2 million Balts and Ukrainians into military service, plus more people into labor.

The Wallies likely land again in France in 43, but there is no strategic bombing campaign. All energies are diverted to destroying infrastructure and the Luftwaffe in France to support a second front. The Wallies can pull this off in 43, again to prevent Russian collapse.

However, without a strategic bombing capaign and a weaker Russia, The war can drag on until the bomb comes online until late 1945. Even then, it will take a few bombs to make Hitler surrender, which will take until 1946.

So, there you go, multi-year two front war.
 
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