AHC: Third Party Supplants Republicans or Democrats

[Commissar From Kiev]

I know this has probably been brought up many times before, but I'd like to ask something: what party or group could supplant either the Democrats or Republicans and become one of the major parties?

Preferably, I'd like this to take place in the mid or late 20th century, with the displaced party staying around as a (small) third party, but I'm open.

So, who's up for this?

 

[Turquoise Blue]

You could have the Republicans perform worse in some 1930s elections, then events happen to undermine party unity. Landonites walk out or something.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

You could have the Republicans perform worse in some 1930s elections, then events happen to undermine party unity. Landonites walk out or something.

Huh. The GOP nearly collapsing in the 1930s would be an interesting idea. But who would step in to oppose the Democrats in their stead?

 

[Gonzo]

This thread springs to mind.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

This thread springs to mind.

Oh, my.

Thanks for pointing that out.
BTW, would it be possible for the GOP to win no EVs in the 1936 election?

 

[Gonzo]

Oh, my.

Thanks for pointing that out.
BTW, would it be possible for the GOP to win no EVs in the 1936 election?

I doubt it. Vermont was pretty Republican back then - it rejected (along with Maine) FDR every. single. time.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

I doubt it. Vermont was pretty Republican back then - it rejected (along with Maine) FDR every. single. time.

Fair enough.

If, say, the Republicans were to crumble in the 30s, what group would be bested suited to forming a new major party?

 

[Indicus]

Oh, my.

Thanks for pointing that out.
BTW, would it be possible for the GOP to win no EVs in the 1936 election?

If the party splits, it's gonna happen for sure.

In 1932, if Hoover declines to run for re-election or if Coolidge ran for re-election in 1928 (and thus leaving the convention contested), I can see the party split between the moderates and conservatives, but not in 1936. The party was just too battered and too scared of defeat to let that happen.

If the Republicans faded into oblivion, Huey Long may form his own Populist Party, or the South may break away, as the only thing unifying the Southern and the others was a mutual disdain of the GOP.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

If the party splits, it's gonna happen for sure.

In 1932, if Hoover declines to run for re-election, I can see the party split between the moderates and conservatives, but not in 1936. The party was just too battered and too scared of defeat to let that happen.

Well, what if an event in the early 1930s causes the GOP to split between the moderates and conservatives, and one of the factions forms its own party. The ensuing years are a major Demwank, until one of the opposition parties largely supplants the other.

 

[Indicus]

Well, what if an event in the early 1930s causes the GOP to split between the moderates and conservatives, and one of the factions forms its own party. The ensuing years are a major Demwank, until one of the opposition parties largely supplants the other.

I think if that happens, either the Republicans get blasted into nothingness or they reunify. If the Republicans are no longer a threat, the Southern Democrats will form their own party.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

I think if that happens, either the Republicans get blasted into nothingness or they reunify. If the Republicans are no longer a threat, the Southern Democrats will form their own party.

So, after the Republican schism, the two ensuing parties have very little influence and the Southern Democrats form their own party to oppose the progressive Democrats. I imagine the Dixiecrat party morphs into a big tent conservative party to maintain its influence, with the Conservative-Republican party merging into it. Meanwhile, the Moderate-Republican Party maintains a very small third party presence in Congress and regularly receives a few percent in presidential elections. Perhaps the moderates are reduced to a virtual regional party that only wins seats in New England.

 

[ben0628]

Its a little early and I don't know if it would permanently last, but the Progressive Party (Bull Moose) under Teddy did better than the Republicans in the 1912 election. Get Teddy to somehow beat Woodrow and the Progressive Party might stay around.

Only current third party in late 20th century United States that has a chance of really replacing one of the two other parties is the Libertarian Party. Don't know how they would be able to succeed though.

 

[Indicus]

So, after the Republican schism, the two ensuing parties have very little influence and the Southern Democrats form their own party to oppose the progressive Democrats. I imagine the Dixiecrat party morphs into a big tent conservative party to maintain its influence, with the Conservative-Republican party merging into it.

Nope. Not gonna happen. The party of Lincoln is not going to merge with the South, especially with the existence of ACW veterans. The Republicans are just too racially liberal to help the South retain their white supremacy. They would sooner join forces with racist Wallace populists than put their society at stake.

Meanwhile, the Moderate-Republican Party maintains a very small third party presence in Congress and regularly receives a few percent in presidential elections. Perhaps the moderates are reduced to a virtual regional party that only wins seats in New England.

Makes sense. After all, a racist Southern party is going to push scared Republicans into the Democratic Party

Its a little early and I don't know if it would permanently last, but the Progressive Party (Bull Moose) under Teddy did better than the Republicans in the 1912 election. Get Teddy to somehow beat Woodrow and the Progressive Party might stay around.

Nope. Not gonna happen. Someone made an electoral map with the absolute numbers for Parker in 1904 and he still wins > 300 EV, despite population increases

Only current third party in late 20th century United States that has a chance of really replacing one of the two other parties is the Libertarian Party. Don't know how they would be able to succeed though.

I think you're discounting the Green Party (remember 2000?), but the Libertarians are just too fringey to win elections.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

Nope. Not gonna happen. The party of Lincoln is not going to merge with the South, especially with the existence of ACW veterans. The Republicans are just too racially liberal to help the South retain their white supremacy. They would sooner join forces with racist Wallace populists than put their society at stake.

I meant that conservative voters would slowly migrate to the Southern party, given that it's more electorally viable than the Conservative-Republicans.

Oh, and what would this Southern party be called?

 

[ben0628]

I think you're discounting the Green Party (remember 2000?), but the Libertarians are just too fringey to win elections.

The problem with the Green Party is that they have too much in common with democrats. Libertarians have their own whole separate ideology. Get a moderate Libertarian with realistic views and have them go up against "radical" Democrat and Republican candidates (cough cough Sanders & Trump) and they might have a chance.

 

[Indicus]

I meant that conservative voters would slowly migrate to the Southern party, given that it's more electorally viable than the Conservative-Republicans.

Oh, and what would this Southern party be called?

I'm doubtful. Their views on race are extremely different.

If it's a Huey Longish party, it'll be called the Populist Party. If it's economically conservative, it'll be called the Freedom Party, something to make the Democrats seem un-American.

The problem with the Green Party is that they have too much in common with democrats. Libertarians have their own whole separate ideology. Get a moderate Libertarian with realistic views and have them go up against "radical" Democrat and Republican candidates (cough cough Sanders & Trump) and they might have a chance.

The Green Party is a left-wing party, while the Democratic Party is vaguely centrist, with right-wingers like Bill Clinton and left-wingers like Elizabeth Warren. If the Democrats are more influenced by coal unions, they will not have eco-friendly views. They may even have some deniers. If so, the Green movement has nowhere to go and will have to be part of its own party. Alternatively, if Clinton Democrats dominate the party, the Greens will be buoyed heavily.

The Libertarians are too radical to moderate, in my opinion.

 

[Turquoise Blue]

If you have the Democrats still dominated by coal New Dealers, with the New Left alienated, and the Republicans still go hard-right, there could be a fusion of Green New Leftism and Libertarianism in a sort of bizarre agrarian environmentalist hippie libertarian socialism.

Won't happen, but would be a funny idea.

 

[history nerd]

The Reform Party might have had a chance if Perot were actually interested in building a party and invested some money in recruiting and supporting candidates down ballot. Perhaps he could start building the party for the '94 midterms rather than '96 general.

There was also real talk in the 30s about the WI Progressives, MN Farmer-Laborites and North Dakota Non-Partisans teaming up, perhaps with the backing of Huey Long in LA and his ragtag band of populists in the senate.

I suppose that something, something, Bull Moose might be possible but I'm not really sure what that might be... You need some POD that convinces Roosevelt to run again in 1916.

If you are okay with a pre-1900 POD the Populists are a good choice. They were on the cusp of breaking through and becoming a real party before Bryan came along.

I doubt that Libertarians, Greens or Constitutionalists ever had any chance of becoming a major party.

EDIT: Thinking about it the Democrats might actually have been capable of splitting in two/three in 1948 if Truman done f*** up good.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

I'm doubtful. Their views on race are extremely different.

If it's a Huey Longish party, it'll be called the Populist Party. If it's economically conservative, it'll be called the Freedom Party, something to make the Democrats seem un-American.

Well, I like 'Freedom Party', it's very . . . y'know

At first, I imagine that the conservatives leave the GOP and form the United States Conservative Party, which splits the anti-FDR vote and helps promote a Democrat-wank throughout the 1930s.
Then, in the 1940s, the Freedom Party arises, founded by Southern Democrats (Strom Thurmond likely being prevalent) dissatisfied with their party's leadership. The Conservative Party is pushed out of the political sphere, and has little to no representation, while the rump GOP only retains its support in New England, with most voters dividing between the Freedom Party and the Democrats.

 

[Indicus]

Well, I like 'Freedom Party', it's very . . . y'know

Yeah, I agree. So economically conservative Southerners break away and the populist Southerners remain Democratic? That would be interesting, with Alabama and Louisiana battlegrounds along with a bunch of other Southern states

At first, I imagine that the conservatives leave the GOP and form the United States Conservative Party, which splits the anti-FDR vote and helps promote a Democrat-wank throughout the 1930s.
Then, in the 1940s, the Freedom Party arises, founded by Southern Democrats (Strom Thurmond likely being prevalent) dissatisfied with their party's leadership. The Conservative Party is pushed out of the political sphere, and has little to no representation, while the rump GOP only retains its support in New England, with most voters dividing between the Freedom Party and the Democrats.

First of all, if anything, the conservative New English would remain in the GOP, competing with moderates in the primaries. They are never going to join forces with social conservative Southerners, as the New English were always socially liberal. I think the Freedom Party would form as soon as the Republican threat subsides. The alliance between two obviously different groups was always just one formed to beat the GOP. So we'd get the entire South become a battleground between Wallace-ite and Longist populists in the Democratic Party, and the Freedom Party.