AHC: the USA concedes defeat to a weaker surprise attacker

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Here is the challenge: with any POD as far back as 1849, make the 20th century US into the kind of country the Japanese prayed it would be when they attacked.

That is a country that is not unshakably bent on revenge as long as it takes but instead is prepared to write off some losses and peace out leaving the attacker to claim victory.

Here are the conditions:

Any PoD after 1849
The attack on the US may happen any time in the20th century.
The US does not need to be conquered, it just needs to peace out, conceding a national interest or peripheral territory to the enemy, or even just failing to exact revenge.
This defeat cannot be brought on by any of the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse, or vast natural or supernatural catastrophe. It can come about through major social, political or economic catastrophe or weakness.
It can be any enemy.

With such a wide range of choice, no matter how difficult this challenge should not require ASB assistance.

As the Japanese found when they fought China in 1890s and Russia in 1904, sometimes the bigger country, with greater size, resources an national capacity, just cannot get its act together to win.

I have no doubt the Chinese and Russians were hopping mad when Japan sneak attacked them. But that rage was not enough to overcome the challenges sufficiently to win. Perhaps the key is having a citizenry hopping mad about a million other things in addition to the foreign surprise attack.
 

trurle

Banned
You may need to push back the POD back to 1801;
OTL Barbary Wars has set a precedent how US will react to external (naval) threats for the next two centuries to come.

Also, the Battle of New Orleans in 1815 has shifted US stance on more aggressive side, although i am not sure if the effect was long-term enough.
 
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The only way I see this happening is if USA is already under attack by a peer opponent and concedes the disputed territory to avoid splitting their forces.
 

mad orc

Banned
Maybe if Greater Germany unifies and attacks the USA in 1899 with the UK staying neutral and Russia offering partial help to get Alaska back.
 
Maybe if Greater Germany unifies and attacks the USA in 1899 ...

I've examined that one a bit. Adding in a strong economic/political connection between Germany and Spain developing 1872-1898. Even their relative strength in 19898 does not look like enough to break US morale of the era.
 
IRL Tet offensive.
Happens after 1849 in the 20th century
US obviously isn't conquered, but it cedes national interest in allowing a communist country to rise during the cold war.

The American population supported the war before, and did not expect the NVA to launch this sort of attack, afterwards, eventually, it created a political situation where winning the war became politically impossible. When North Vietnam broke the Paris accords, i had become political suicide to send forces back into Vietnam. So, even though it was not a short war, the Tet offensive was a surprise attack by a weaker nation that led to the US giving up.

If you wanna say that the war was already happening, North Vietnam and the US were never technically at war, and the NVA attacked American bases and assets, especially the embassy, that were considered safe.

Overall, i think that America could concede to a surprise attack today if it happened in a region where the US military has no reason to be and casualties are surprisingly high. That's why Neither Obama or Trump chose to put boots on the ground in Syria.
 
If the US has fought pointless colonial wars (seen retrospectively) which they arguably lost and made a loser's peace

Samoa against Germany
Cuba against Spain
even Venezuela against Britain

Maybe throw in interventions in C America which came to nothing
 
Divide and conquer.
Start with a divided USA.
Lingering resentment over the 1860s Civil War makes the Deep South a ‘no go’ zone for federal employees.

Perhaps divide the USA along climatic and topographic lines like ‘The Nine Nations of North America.’ Most of those regions (New England & Maritime Provinces, Great Plains, West Coast, Southwestern Desert, etc.) run north to south, spilling over the borders of Canada and Mexico.
If a Western Pacific power captured part of the NA West Coast, the US Federal gov’t would look at all the deserts, mountains and huge distances - they need to transport troops across - and concede Oregon to invaders.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I wonder if a President stepping waaaaay ahead of public opinion in intervening in a foreign crisis, at the same time there is a serious economic panic or Depression, is enough to get this effect.

To think of a couple examples:

What if GOP administration gets hawkish & embargoes Japan in 31-32 in reaction to the Manchuria occupation, this worsens conditions in oil states, Japanese retalite attacking PI & Guam. A big segment of Americans are angered by the attack, but, early war defeats, plus pressing economic concerns prevents a broad sense of national “ownership” of the war, and it gets added to the litany of disasters, foreign and domestic, ascribed the incumbent administration. The Democratic opposition accuses the incumbent of provoking crisis as a diversionary tactic, of "wagging the dog" to distract from domestic economic failure. The Democratic Administration taking power next has a public mandate to fix the economy and end the war on any terms not involving catastrophic concessions. This means the US interests in the western hemisphere are unimpaired, but the U.S. may cede, or "neutralize" its position in the Philippines, Guam and China.

In a similar vein, only later:

What if a Democratic administration gets hawkish and embargoes Japan in 37-38 over China invasion, trying to implement “Quarantine”. Japan attacks PI & Guam and win. Any type of successful US advance in the Pacific is too long in coming. National preoccupation is the 2nd dip of Depression. Landslide defeat for the administration in 1938 midterms, Congressional majority has more schadenfreude than unity with the administration, accuses the incumbent of provoking crisis as a diversionary tactic, of "wagging the dog" to distract from domestic failure.. POTUS loses election of 1940, & successor has a mandate to terminate war on any terms not involving catastrophic concessions. This means the US interests in the western hemisphere are unimpaired, but the U.S. may cede, or "neutralize" its position in the Philippines, Guam and China.
 
Chile wipes out the Pacific Fleet in 1879 after a misunderstanding, then invades California and raids the US Mint in San Francisco in 1880
 
Ten Years War in Cuba sees US involvement at the tail end, this causes Spain to initiate a pre-emptive strike first against Hawaii (which they keep for another 35 years) then Florida with landings at Tampa, St Augustine, and Fort Dallas. Spanish demands for the Bone Islands are abated by serious ransom money but it is a black eye to the US.
 
ANNOUNCER

Ladies and gentlemen, we interrupt this scheduled transmission to bring you an announcement of national importance from the White House in Washington D.C. Ladies and gentlemen? Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States.

PRESIDENT

My fellow Americans - this morning at 6:25 AM Pacific Standard Time, combined elements of the Imperial Japanese Navy and Air forces ruthlessly attacked our naval base at Pearl Harbor, in the Hawaiian Islands. I have conferred this morning with the congress and the chiefs of staff in emergency session. We have reached our rendezvous with destiny. It is our unanimous and irrevocable decision that the United States of America ...unconditionally surrender. And now my wife and I would like to return with you for the thrilling conclusion of Private Nick Danger, Third Eye.

http://www.madmusic.com/song_details.aspx?SongID=3932
 
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