AHC: The US Green Party Gets 10% in 2012

What would be the best POD for the US Green Party to meet the following criteria:

1) At least 10 members in the House of Representatives.

2) Multiple elected local officials and state legislators in at least fifteen states with at least one state in each major region of the United States (East, South, West)

3) The Green Party Presidential ticket in 2012 wins at least 10% of the popular vote. Bonus points if they win ANY electoral votes!
 
For a start, Al Gore wins in 2000.

Yeah, the whole "Gore lost because of Nader" meme didn't help the Green Party.

But I think you'd need an earlier POD to fit all those criteria. You can, though, have the Green presidential ticket get 10% or more due to a disgruntled Democratic primary candidate leave and run as a Green. Dennis Kucinich, maybe.
 
If having a two term governor got the Libertarian party 1% in the same year, I can't imagine the Green Party doing much better unless the PoD is waaaay back.
 

d32123

Banned
The problem with the Green Party is that they only exist once every four years. They have little grassroots support and organization. Unless you fundamentally change the nature of the Green Party, Nader's run in 2000 is their peak.
 
This is a very tough AHC. The system is designed to drown a 3rd party before it can ever gain any traction. With that being said I suppose the only way to do it is:

Start off with an Al Gore victory like Plumber said.

9/11 happens and Al Gore launches the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, just as in OTL

In OTL NM congressman Tom Udall was unopposed in 2002. In this scenario former NM Lt. Governor Roberto Mondragon (who won 10% in the 1994 governors race as a Green) runs against Udall and, with the support of both Republicans looking to "vote against The Democrat" and anti-war Dems, scores the upset.

Joe Lieberman convinces Gore to invade Iraq in 2003.

OTL San Fran mayoral race was a razor thin affair in which Gavin Newson edged Green Party candidate by 11,000 votes. 5,501 of these voters are so angry at the War on Terror they decide to take it out on Newsom. Matt Gonzalez wins the race 50.001 to 49.999

Bush (or Whoever) runs against Gore in 2004 under a promise to expand the war on terror to Iran and Syria.

Ralph Nader runs as a Green in 2004 and not a an independent.

Dennis Kucinich gives Gore a tough primary race. After losing in the primary he angers Democrats by running as VP candidate for Nader.

The Vermont Progressive Party becomes the Vermont Green Party in 2004, giving the Greens a handful of local state seats.

Nader wins say 5-7% of the votes in 2004. This performance, coupled with the one congressional seat, the mayors seat in San Fran, and a handful of local seats in Vermont, now have a foundation upon which to build on.

2008 the Dems nominate Hillary Cinton, much to the chagrin of the anti-war Dems who supported Obama. Se further alienates the anti-war Dems by picking Wes Clark as her running mate.

Dennis Kucinich wins the Green Party nomination and selects Roberto Mondragon as his running mate. Republicans score the win behind John McCain and Tim Pawlenty, but Cinton dos so poorly due to housing bubble collapse that Kuchinich's 8% is not a deal breaker and Dems don't blame the loss on Kucinich per say.

2012 Dems nominate Joe Liberman against McCain. He indicates it is time to expand war on terror to Iran. Anti war Dems are now in open revolt and dozens of elected Democrats publicly support the Mondragon-Matt Gonzalez ticket. Mondragon and Gonzalez also champion amnesty, something that allows the two Hispanics to make inroads with Latino population. In 2012 election they capture 10% of the total votes, mostly in NM and California.

Sorry, I can't do any electoral votes. I already stretched the limits of plausibility with that scenario above.
 

Japhy

Banned
Have the Green Party not do the normal third party gimmick of running for President, have the Grassroots party actually start with grassroots, winning on City Boards, State Legislatures, eventually Congress. No real push for the Nader Runs in 1996, 2000, and the rest after. Have them not run a presidential ticket at all until 2004. Avoid Nader, avoid the joke that was McKinney and they can already be viable in several house races. Setting things up that way, gaining on the fringes of the 2006 and 2008 Liberal Victories, gaining ground in the Anti-Democratic 2010 swing by tapping into things like Occupy and winning protest votes to get seats in California, Vermont, Oregon, etc.

In 2004 and 2008 have them run viable tickets, and in 2012 have them run someone with real political experience (For example their theoretically most senior Congress-person) and you might be able to do this.
 
The problem with the Green Party is that they only exist once every four years. They have little grassroots support and organization. Unless you fundamentally change the nature of the Green Party, Nader's run in 2000 is their peak.

They do, however, seem to have strong local stuff going on. CA has a lot of Greens in local office.

This is a very tough AHC. The system is designed to drown a 3rd party before it can ever gain any traction. With that being said I suppose the only way to do it is:

Start off with an Al Gore victory like Plumber said.

9/11 happens and Al Gore launches the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, just as in OTL

In OTL NM congressman Tom Udall was unopposed in 2002. In this scenario former NM Lt. Governor Roberto Mondragon (who won 10% in the 1994 governors race as a Green) runs against Udall and, with the support of both Republicans looking to "vote against The Democrat" and anti-war Dems, scores the upset.

Joe Lieberman convinces Gore to invade Iraq in 2003.

OTL San Fran mayoral race was a razor thin affair in which Gavin Newson edged Green Party candidate by 11,000 votes. 5,501 of these voters are so angry at the War on Terror they decide to take it out on Newsom. Matt Gonzalez wins the race 50.001 to 49.999

Bush (or Whoever) runs against Gore in 2004 under a promise to expand the war on terror to Iran and Syria.

Ralph Nader runs as a Green in 2004 and not a an independent.

Dennis Kucinich gives Gore a tough primary race. After losing in the primary he angers Democrats by running as VP candidate for Nader.

The Vermont Progressive Party becomes the Vermont Green Party in 2004, giving the Greens a handful of local state seats.

Nader wins say 5-7% of the votes in 2004. This performance, coupled with the one congressional seat, the mayors seat in San Fran, and a handful of local seats in Vermont, now have a foundation upon which to build on.

2008 the Dems nominate Hillary Cinton, much to the chagrin of the anti-war Dems who supported Obama. Se further alienates the anti-war Dems by picking Wes Clark as her running mate.

Dennis Kucinich wins the Green Party nomination and selects Roberto Mondragon as his running mate. Republicans score the win behind John McCain and Tim Pawlenty, but Cinton dos so poorly due to housing bubble collapse that Kuchinich's 8% is not a deal breaker and Dems don't blame the loss on Kucinich per say.

2012 Dems nominate Joe Liberman against McCain. He indicates it is time to expand war on terror to Iran. Anti war Dems are now in open revolt and dozens of elected Democrats publicly support the Mondragon-Matt Gonzalez ticket. Mondragon and Gonzalez also champion amnesty, something that allows the two Hispanics to make inroads with Latino population. In 2012 election they capture 10% of the total votes, mostly in NM and California.

Sorry, I can't do any electoral votes. I already stretched the limits of plausibility with that scenario above.

I like the sound of this scenario.
 
You could get a significant minority in California and maybe the West Coast, but 10% of the nation is stretching it. Parts of the South and Midwest are too conservative for the Greens by far.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Seriously, this would require divine intervention.

Greens are a joke in American politics, not just because of the environmental issues, where they have some support, but because the Party is quite far left (arguably socialist, if not communist) in its party platform. When they do manage to elect someone higher than City Council, they almost always change party or change to Independent status.

The Greens "great moment" was and will almost certainly will always be, ensuring the election of George W Bush as the President of the United States.
 

d32123

Banned
Greens are a joke in American politics, not just because of the environmental issues, where they have some support, but because the Party is quite far left (arguably socialist, if not communist) in its party platform.

Social Democratic at best with a flavoring of eco-primitivist nuttery.

But seriously, here in my county us communists have bigger grassroots support than the Greens do or ever will.

EDIT: And I say this as someone who voted Green twice.
 
Seriously, this would require divine intervention.

Greens are a joke in American politics, not just because of the environmental issues, where they have some support, but because the Party is quite far left (arguably socialist, if not communist) in its party platform. When they do manage to elect someone higher than City Council, they almost always change party or change to Independent status.

The Greens "great moment" was and will almost certainly will always be, ensuring the election of George W Bush as the President of the United States.

I think it is highly implausible, but you can't underestimate the tenacity (some might say fanaticism) of the one-issue voter...ESPECIALLY the anti-war voter. If you have 12 years of Democratic pro war candidates with no end in sight and a refusal of party leadership to ease up off the War on Terror, it is not out of the question that a percentage of democrats would ignore everything else in voting for the Greens. Think of all the anti-war Ron Paul supporters who glossed over his news letter controversy. It would take a perfect storm, and even with this perfect storm I don't see it as more than 4-5% in 2012, but I don't think the fact that the Greens are borderline communist would not be a deal killer if the pieces are in place for a democratic expanded war on terror
 
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