Not possible without the British coming in, and even then... the issue is technology at that point, plus population. However, I don't think it was completely impossible for there to have been an "Indian state" where Michigan or Illinois eventually were created. It would require more sensible leadership and attitudes, but it might have been a compromise that everyone could agree to.
Native Americans had terrain advantage which is why the area had to be recharted famously by Lewis and Clarke, despite previous Spanish and British attempts. The US has technological superiority, but if the Native Americans ally themselves with Britain or reverse engineer the rifles and cannons used by the US, they can use their terrain advantage to successfully repel them long enough to be recognised as a relatively equal independent nation.
I could imagine the American Indians driving off the U.S. offensives through the 1790s. By Tecumseh's era, too late.
I guess you could end up with a Waitangi type deal over Michigan or Wisconsin that maybe delays the foundation of white states there until the 1850s or 1860s.
I could see the foundation of Kentucky and Tennessee delayed until past 1800, or Ohio past 1810, if the Natives are rolling all sixes or have serious British help. It's not easy, it would take a detailed and researched timeline to make it convincing.