AHC:The U.S. has Oregon/Washington, but not Mex-Am War

samcster94

Banned
The U.S., in this prompt, cannot take land from Mexico albeit CAN take Cuba though. There is an 1821 POD present as Mexico was founded then. The other goal that has to be done is the area that is Oregon/Washington(and maybe BC) is a shorter Pacific Coast(Spain has a short West Coast in OTL).
Bonus points if there is no war with the British over this!
 
Way I see it, the big hurdle here is eliminating independent Texas, since its independence and later annexation into the US is what led to war (or at least, gave the US an excuse to justify their DoW). With a 1821 PoD, I could see a few things.

First, their presence in the area can be weakened. By 1821, Moses Austin had namaged to strike a deal to bring American settlers into Texas, but Mexico's independence made it void. Moses died in 1821 itself, so his son Stephen picked that up. If you can have Stephen either not do this, or fail to renew the deal (which had to be done twice as the fall of the First Empire made the deal void again), then you can lessen American presence in Texas. This can be helped if likewise the Empresario System of 1824 is avoided, or it's not dominated almost exclusively by Americans. Or enforce the settlers assimilate, or enforce the travel ban of 1830. As it is, American presence in Texas is impossible to avoid, but it can be made as not as big as OTL to become a big problem.

Alternatively, or concurrently, Mexico needs to be set on a path that avoids the instability that plagued it during its first decades after independence. Even with no Texas, the US might still find another way to declare war, specially if it considers Mexico an easy target. Perhaps a surviving First Empire, or a Republic that avoids souring relations with the Native Americans in the north, avoids the Federalists vs Centralists conflict, avoids lagging behind in military prowess, avoids its inability to populate the north, and then that could make the prospect of war against them to be less appealing.

All in all, sticking to a 1821 PoD, then making the Empire survive and thrive could be the way to go. Something that avoids Iturbide either taking the throne, or something that avoids him dissolving Congress (in my opinion, this was what begun the whole downwards spiral), and then things could transition into a way to avoid Texas breaking off, and to deny other ways the US could take advantage of to obtain land.

Regarding that side-note about Cuba, I would think it depends. A US that is unable to expand into Mexico, will have to expand elsewhere to appease Southerners. The Caribbean is the logical route, but an earlier Kansas-Nebraska Act could do as well, although that does not necessarily exclude the former from potentially happening.

The Oregon thing can just go as OTL.
 
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Way I see it, the big hurdle here is eliminating independent Texas, since its independence and later annexation into the US is what led to war (or at least, gave the US an excuse to justify their DoW).
It's not hard to have Mexico crush the rebels either... they almost did it in OTL. At San Jacinto, have someone post sentries in the Mexican camp, and the Texans likely lose the battle and the war...
 

Grimbald

Monthly Donor
Sorry, I don't see it.

The northern half of Mexico was under populated (at least by Europeans) and the US was land hungry. Butterfly Texas and the Yanks are still going to want that land and in their eyes it was there for the taking.
 
It's not hard to have Mexico crush the rebels either... they almost did it in OTL. At San Jacinto, have someone post sentries in the Mexican camp, and the Texans likely lose the battle and the war...

While it's not hard for San Jacinto to go the other way, long-term Mexico wouldn't necesarily be in shape to stop a second revolt, and definitely not once the US comes knocking. Which is why I think what needs to be done is have Mexico in a better path than OTL's from an earlier point.

Sorry, I don't see it.

The northern half of Mexico was under populated (at least by Europeans) and the US was land hungry. Butterfly Texas and the Yanks are still going to want that land and in their eyes it was there for the taking.

Well, that's the point of AH, no? With 1821 as the PoD prompt, it is possible for Mexico to develop through a path that can allow it to mantain the Adam-Onis/TreatyofLimits borders. Whether or not it can be done without a war might be a subject of debate. I, personally, think war can be avoided. But just in case war does happen, likewise events can happen in a way that the borders go unchanged.

Also, keep in mind that even in OTL, the US still had to excuse its war, which was done through Texas's border claims clashing with Mexico's border claims. Hence the whole thing didn't happened until the 1840's, instead of any earlier point. Remove that, and what else could the US use to trigger a way, then?
 
New Mexico would probably have just revolted at some point, probably along with California. Annexation by the US is not a given, of course.
 
Sorry, I don't see it.

The northern half of Mexico was under populated (at least by Europeans) and the US was land hungry. Butterfly Texas and the Yanks are still going to want that land and in their eyes it was there for the taking.

Maybe a Mormon-wank that leads to the establishment of a Republic of Deseret that functions as a buffer state between the US and Mexico?
 
A less stable Mexico would also meet the POD, one where California, etc., break off and join the US without a war.
 
A less stable Mexico would also meet the POD, one where California, etc., break off and join the US without a war.

I don't think that loophole can apply here since the prompt does asks for the US to not aquire the land (calling for a shorter west coast specifially composed of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia (certianly not all of it) as a maybe).
 
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It depends on what you mean by `Mexico`. By the time the States annexed Texas, the Mexican government had already conceded their existence, in a limited form. Perhaps the election of Martin van Buren at a crucial time would give this mini-Texas to the USA, then to avoid being labeled as a weakling, sends more expeditions to Oregon, giving them more leverage. If that fails, just purchase the parts that the British still feel attached to.
 
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