AHC The Taiping Rebellion as a Han revolution

The Taiping rebellion brought the Qing to its knees, however, it ultimately failed due to it being a Christian rebellion. While many fighting for the Taiping didn't really care for it being Christian, it failed to turn into a Han revolution because it was not based on Confucianism. In fact, many Han generals who fought with the Qing in the war explicitly said they disliked the Taiping because it was Christian.

So, what if instead, the Taiping Rebellion wasn't a Christian rebellion, and instead of a Han rebellion. (yes I know the rebellion was only inspired by a Christian prophecy, but let's just say it is instead Confucius inspired.)

Would this cause the collapse of the Qing? I personally don't believe so, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.
 

Kaze

Banned
One of the factors for the rebellion is race – most westerners think the Middle Kingdom as one race – in fact it is made up of more than 56 recognized races Han Chinese only making up a slim 91% majority. Even among Han there is division – often a Northern Han will call a Southern Han “a dirty dog” and the Southerner will call the northern “an ugly pig.” One of the least known and sundry duties of the central government is to make sure that the races do not go out and kill each other in some genocidal rage, set out for partition and civil war. Unfortunately, at the time was the helm was the Manchu which was seen by the majority race as an invading upstart. To offset their control, the majority of the government officials were seen as superficial, temporary, irresponsible, corrupt, that the offices were for sale to the highest bidder, and immoral degrading not only the office but the Chinese military reducing the bannermen and Chinese Green Standard Army as impotent.

Corruption was so bad that some even created a new class of mythological creature - the Jiang Shi (simplified Chinese: 僵尸; traditional Chinese: 僵屍 or; pinyin: jiāngshī), which westerners often consider as “Chinese zombies” or “Chinese vampires,” which shared many of the Manchu’s identifying features.

As for Hong’s own race, the Hakka were originally from Central China that were moved south due to barbarian threat – the Hakka were seen as different due to dialect, habits, modes of life making it difficult to mix/assimilate with the native often ending in brutal fighting. To make it worse by the 19th Century most taken up Christianity, the religion of the imperialists – though it was more likely the Hakka were more interested in the free bowls of rice with every Protestant sermon than the theology itself.

All taxes, dues, and rents had to be paid in silver taels not in kind to the central government, due to opium and the Opium Wars the exchange rate for copper coins to silver had increased by 100%. The central government also had another illness concerning money – in order to pay the debts owed to the imperialists the Chinese government devalued the currency - the percentage of copper and silver in a coin of 1845 was at least half the percentage in a coin minted two decades prior. Any economist would see this as a recipe for rapid inflation and economic collapse.
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Hóng Xiùquán (Chinese: 洪秀全; pinyin: Hóng Xiùquán; Wade-Giles: Hung Hsiu-ch'üan; Hakka Chinese: Fùng Siu-chhiòn; 1 January 1814 – 1 June 1864) ‘s rebellion failed for several reasons – Hong himself, ideological confect and inconsistencies of Taiping life, strategic blunders , failure in leadership, and poor diplomacy.

Firstly, diplomacy. In internal Chinese diplomacy, Hong failed to make in-roads with the Qing government – a marriage between him or his son with one of the Qing princesses would legitimize his rule. Though seen as a partial betrayal of the Taiping cause, a political marriage would help the rest of the Qing leadership to peacefully enter monasteries and be never seen outside their walls ever again.

Hong failed to work in consort with the Nien Rebellion (Chinese: 捻軍起義; pinyin: niǎn jūn qǐ yì; Wade-Giles: nien-chün ch'i-yi (1851-1868) and the other Muslim rebellions of the same period. The Nien only accepted Hong’s appointments but refused to follow any orders – if a coordinated effort or alliance was created between the Taiping and guerilla leaders the fragile Western-Qing Dynasty alliance would easily collapse and with it the Qing Dynasty.

In external Chinese diplomacy, Hong was no diplomat nor could he see that the Western Imperialist governments would be very sympathetic to a Chinese rebellion – they expected the new government to recognize Western rights in the Colonies already held. With his dealings with western nations, Hong often treated the ambassadors as inferior dependencies in the same manner as the Manchu government tried to deal with the British before the Opium Wars. If say Hong was willing to part with the whole of Guangdong and Fujian provinces, which technically were not under his direct control, the British and Americans and others would be all too helpful to aid in his victory – not only recognizing the Heavenly Kingdom as the new Chinese government, send money and supplies, but would see the quick defection of Charles George Gordon, Frederick Townsend Ward, and Henry Andres Burgevine to support the rebellion militarily. Unfortunately, due to the Heavenly King treatment of Britain and the British, Sir George Bongham, the British plenipotentiary in China, left in disgust threatening that if British lives or property were violated that his government would retaliate with acts worse than they did back in the Opium Wars.

Secondly, leadership. In military matters, Hong was inspired by Romance of the Three Kingdoms (sānguó yǎnyì), the Water Margin or Outlaws of the Marsh (simplified Chinese: 水浒传; traditional Chinese: 水滸傳; pinyin: Shuǐhǔ Zhuàn), and Fengshen Yanyi or The Investiture of the Gods (simplified Chinese: 封神演义; traditional Chinese: 封神演義; pinyin: fēngshén yǎnyì) however, he did not learn much from these books forgetting military strategy and to watch one’s underlings. He failed to deal with Zeng Guofan (simplified Chinese: 曾国藩; traditional Chinese: 曾國藩; Pinyin: Zēng Guófān, Wade-Giles: Tseng Kuo-fan, (November 21, 1811 – March 12, 1872), founder of the Xiang Army (Chinese: 湘軍; pinyin: Xiāng Jūn) and father of future warlordism in China. In comparison in military matters, Hong was a high school dropout and Zeng Guofan was a Harvard professor.

Hong failed to restrain internal dissent –the Eastern King, Yang, was too ambitious. He as prime minister and General of the Army basically exiled the North King and Assistant King to fight on losing fronts of the war. The East King entertained hopes on replacing Hong, the North King in the dark of night snuck back broke into the palace slaughtered Yang and all those loyal to Yang. After this, Hong retreated into esotericism and further inside the pleasures of his personal harem. This strife depleted the Taiping leadership of moral, a good part of the officer corps, and the movement of the Taiping Army. All hope for the Taiping laid on the shoulders of the Shield King, but “A house cannot stand with just one pillar,” eventually the Shield King would betray the rebellion and abandon Hong to his fate of “food poisoning.”

There were many Strategic blunders. The Taipings failed to take Wuhan, a major center on the Yangtze its survival would help Hunan forces to use it to rally against the rebellion. They failed to take Changsha, capital of Hunan, and center of Zeng Guofan’s military support network. Failure to take the rest of Kiangsu province and establish firm and friendly contact with foreign representatives – worse still the Taipings ignored the pea of assistance from the Small Sword Society, a branch of the Triads that had besieged Shanghai for a year and a half– in doing so this left a important point of contact with the west and a base of operations in the hands of the Qing.

The Taiping failed to destroy or cripple the imperial Great Camps on either side of the Yangtze. There is only few ways to deal with an enemy army in the field of battle– destroy it, cripple it, assassinate its leadership, bribe its leadership to join you or have their superiors know about their bribery so that some incompetent leader replaces the competent one, or all of the above. Leaving an enemy army intact, on the field of battle is not a stupid thing it is ludicrous and suicidal!

Failure to capture Peking, after capturing Nanking, the Taipings should have not settled down to enjoy the life of the harem and the soft life, but go for the jugular – the northern expedition was a thin column of soldiers that overextended itself and courted its natural doom – this left the Qing court saved to continue as the legitimate center of resistance and political power. Hong should have remembered from his Romance of the Three Kingdoms that it is best to remove the other “kings” and “emperors” on the field either by defeating and killing the enemy monarch, capturing his capital and source of power, exiling him to some hinterland or monastery, assassinating him, marriage, or all of the above – only after the other monarch is removed can a king settle into his harem.

The anti-Manchu Ideology was compromised by Christianity and his own ideology. The idea of rising from the dead to inspire martyrs is a good way of getting soldiers but a terrible way to run an army. As momentum built, he became so engrossed in religion that the revolution suffered to the point of what happened after most of the rebellions claiming to be Maitrya Buddha – degeneration, military defeat, and setting the stage for future warlordism. The revolutionaries preached that all men were brothers, forbade the works of Confucius and Mencius, separation of the sexes and monogamy as the only form of marriage, and abolished private property – but it was not so for the leaders of the revolution.

Most of these blames could be placed on the shoulders of Hong due to his questionable sanity and belief in his own propaganda – which the angels of God would somehow save him in the end. Retreating into the palace reading holy books, enjoying a harem, and letting God solve all his problems is no way to run a rebellion – in fact it is a good way to find oneself a corpse.
 

Kaze

Banned
No, in retrospect I do not think it would have lead to better course of decisions. I think that the factionalism had left only one good pillar to stand by - unfortunately, the pillars were all rotten and one swift kick would bring it down. Hong should have restrained his generals and kept a good leash on all of his general's ambitions focusing them at the task at hand - defeating the Qing.
 
Secondly, leadership. In military matters, Hong was inspired by Romance of the Three Kingdoms (sānguó yǎnyì), the Water Margin or Outlaws of the Marsh (simplified Chinese: 水浒传; traditional Chinese: 水滸傳; pinyin: Shuǐhǔ Zhuàn), and Fengshen Yanyi or The Investiture of the Gods (simplified Chinese: 封神演义; traditional Chinese: 封神演義; pinyin: fēngshén yǎnyì)
Reminds me of this quote
The young should not read Water Margin, and the old should not read Three Kingdoms. 少不讀水滸, 老不讀三國
 
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