Is it possible for the Second Fitna to end not just in an Umayyad defeat but with the areas ruled by the Umayyad Caliphate to be divided between the Alids and Zubayrid dynasties and a Kharijite state?
Hmmm... I don't know much Islamic history, especially early history, but that would certainly shake things up considerably. The Middle East would rapidly be unrecognizable, and Europe would likely be totally weird by 1200.
A Kharjite state would be a nasty thing to see - they'd seriously mess up Islam if they managed to gain any footing to put their ideas in place. Didn't they think all other Muslims were unbelievers and worthy of death?
Cheers,
Ganesha