AHC: The Re-Colonization of South America

Still, when Napoleon III intervened in Mexico in the 1860s, Britain and Spain supported her on the grounds that Mexico had suspended the payment of interests on those loans she owed all three of Britain, France and Spain. Assuming an earlier Mexican-American War breaks out and is fought in, say, 1838-1840 (or about that time), would it be possible to have Mexico being invaded in the late 1840s by a European power for similar reasons?

Britain and Spain only assisted France in its invasion because they intended to occupy Veracruz (and only Veracruz) to force Mexico to pay its debts. When the two powers discovered France wanted to force a regime change, they withdrew.
 
You mean Latin America would have been in a better situation at the end of the 19th century if they hadn't adopted free trade?

Yes. The United States got strong off protectionism, then encouraged free trade once it was strong. Typically a good way to develop. Didn't we talk about this before?

Its not my area at all but Argentina at least I know was doing rather well out of it, it was predicted to be only a matter of time before it became regarded as a fully developed country.
But of course it being latin America.....
Because Argentina thrived off free trade, it didn't diversify. When the export market crashed, the country crashed. Hard.
 
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In the timeline I am working on, Quebec becomes an independent republic around 1810, reducing British presence in North America to little more than a rump. This would then allow them to focus more of their attention to South America.

But you are right, it is far more reasonable for the Russians to look to Afghanistan, rather than Mexico.

Still, when Napoleon III intervened in Mexico in the 1860s, Britain and Spain supported her on the grounds that Mexico had suspended the payment of interests on those loans she owed all three of Britain, France and Spain. Assuming an earlier Mexican-American War breaks out and is fought in, say, 1838-1840 (or about that time), would it be possible to have Mexico being invaded in the late 1840s by a European power for similar reasons?

Could France again prove a useful agent of intervention?

I thought your POD was after the Death of Bolivar? With a POD resulting in Quebec Independence... which I see as highly unlikely unless the US has somehow teamed up with Napoleon. In which case it might be that Britain is fighting a longer Napoleonic War, and resultingly doesn't give support to Bolivar.

British Foreign Office support for Bolivar and Venezuealan independence was rather tenuous in 1811, if Britain is feeling harder pressed in the Americas they could very easily have Miranda and Bolivar arrested in London and shipped to Spain. In which case South American Independence will take a much more different form... if it occurs at all.

An interesting idea is if the Spanish Colonial system basically continues into the 1830s and 1840s, and Britain is focusing on South America perhaps they could end up "ruling" like they did in China. British experts and officials took key positions in the Imperial bureaucracy and enforced many priveledges and trade deals on the people of the Spanish Americas. It wouldn't be Free trade but rather an usurping of Mercantilist power.
 
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Australia? The Netherlands?

Australia had the benefit of being a White Dominion and the built-up while it was part of another country as well as having resources.

The Netherlands had strategic location (in terms of wealth concentration and geography) and during the colonial era, resources.


Generally speaking to it's of course much easier for a country like the Netherlands, that's small in terms of both population and territory to develop than a large country like say Brazil.

Also, Europe had an advantage that it developed more or less at the same time and those that developed somewhat later made-up for it by a mixture of what America did, having resources and internal markets large enough for nascent industries to get off the ground.
 
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Black Hawk Up

Once again I am recalling my Black Hawk Up TL which did not get very far. In it Britain does considerable beter in the War of 1812. This creates lingering resentment against the British Empire in the minds of many but not all Americans. In 1821 newly elected President Crawford, wanting to annoy Britain without causing war, sends Secretary of State Monroe to negotiate the Monroe-Metternich Treaty with the Holy Alliance which in effect invites the HA to interfere in the New World.
 
Yes. The United States got strong off protectionism, then encouraged free trade once it was strong. Typically a good way to develop. Didn't we talk about this before?

I have vague memories of something... Please remind me.

It didn't begin to encourage free trade until the 1940s, though admittedly, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Cordell Hull did begin to loosen up protectionist policies after they got in charge in the 1930s. Proper trade liberalization after all of Europe had gone straight down the gutter with World War II. It helps being the only industrial country left intact up to that point. You can see continuously high tariffs from the 1860s up to that point.

Because Argentina thrived off free trade, it didn't diversify. When the export market crashed, the country crashed. Hard.

The export market crashed because other countries introduced high tariffs against South American goods in the Great Depression. Seems to me to be an argument against protectionism rather than one in favor of it.
 
I thought your POD was after the Death of Bolivar? With a POD resulting in Quebec Independence... which I see as highly unlikely unless the US has somehow teamed up with Napoleon. In which case it might be that Britain is fighting a longer Napoleonic War, and resultingly doesn't give support to Bolivar.

That was more or less a provisional PoD date that was set there to give an idea of what I wanted to work with, since I want the butterfly net to expand slowly. The actual PoD date is in the late summer of 1769, in Northwestern Finland.

As far as Quebec was concerned, my idea was that this was a Francophone uprising against Anglophone rule. That would put the entire demographic in British North America in a much different situation than it was in the War of 1812. Rather than an American invasion, the British are looking at the province of Lower Canada being in open rebellion.

British Foreign Office support for Bolivar and Venezuealan independence was rather tenuous in 1811, if Britain is feeling harder pressed in the Americas they could very easily have Miranda and Bolivar arrested in London and shipped to Spain. In which case South American Independence will take a much more different form... if it occurs at all.

You may have them or their analogues shipped off to Spain if you wish.

An interesting idea is if the Spanish Colonial system basically continues into the 1830s and 1840s, and Britain is focusing on South America perhaps they could end up "ruling" like they did in China. British experts and officials took key positions in the Imperial bureaucracy and enforced many priveledges and trade deals on the people of the Spanish Americas. It wouldn't be Free trade but rather an usurping of Mercantilist power.

You don't think that independence of the Viceroyalty of Río de la Plata is inevitable, then? Wouldn't that at least require O'Higgins to be either butterflied away or having his ATL brother actually support continued Spanish rule?
 
The export market crashed because other countries introduced high tariffs against South American goods in the Great Depression. Seems to me to be an argument against protectionism rather than one in favor of it.

I may be wrong, but I think he was more reffering to Argentina's collapse and Bankruptcy in 2000.
 
I may be wrong, but I think he was more reffering to Argentina's collapse and Bankruptcy in 2000.

If he wishes to discuss contemporary Argentine politics wish me, I recommend that we do that per personal messaging rather than in this thread, as I do not wish to have it locked or removed to the Political Chat-section of the forum.
 
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