AHC: The Philippines Fully Incorporated Into the US

SsgtC

Banned
I'm curious, what would have been required for the United States to fully annex the Philippines into the United States as a Territory and later, as several individual States? If it's possible, what effect would it have this have in the Philippines and on the US as a whole? What is the earliest any part of the Philippines would become a State?
 
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As one state or as several? I think Washington would insist on only one, but three or so would make some sense. Really though, statehood was never a viable option.
 

SsgtC

Banned
As one state or as several? I think Washington would insist on only one, but three or so would make some sense. Really though, statehood was never a viable option.
Well, seeing as the population in the Philippines is roughly 100 million, I think you almost need multiple states.
 
Oh, that's a given. Otherwise the Philippines would be entitled to something like 25% of all the seats
It's probably going to have a powerful congressional delegation regardless. Although, in fairness, as a U.S. state, the population of the archipelago may actually be smaller.
 
I don't think its possible. Simply too many obstacles involved. Wrong languages, wrong skin color, too far away, wrong religions. We couldn't even get where things would need to be if there were an absolutely massive protestant missionary invasion and mass conversions. Then there are the problems of what political parties the new citizens would be part of, and the threats this massive segment of new voters would pose to the older established parties. Of course if one party were to jump in whole hog, and somehow gain a majority of votes then that party would support statehood/citizenship etc etc, but the other would very quickly engage in the meanest of demagogueries to stop the other. All in all, I just don't see a way for this to happen.
 

SsgtC

Banned
I don't think its possible. Simply too many obstacles involved. Wrong languages, wrong skin color, too far away, wrong religions. We couldn't even get where things would need to be if there were an absolutely massive protestant missionary invasion and mass conversions. Then there are the problems of what political parties the new citizens would be part of, and the threats this massive segment of new voters would pose to the older established parties. Of course if one party were to jump in whole hog, and somehow gain a majority of votes then that party would support statehood/citizenship etc etc, but the other would very quickly engage in the meanest of demagogueries to stop the other. All in all, I just don't see a way for this to happen.
Oh I agree, it's not easy. The US acquired the Philippines in 1898 and passed legislation in 1916 that made it official US policy to grant the Philippines Independence (and it was believed that was the only reasonable outcome years earlier). So there's only 18 years to work with here. Just curious how it could have happened. Maybe a bigger Japanese threat earlier that makes leaders life Quezon decide that closer integration into the US would serve Philippine interests better than independence?
 
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Oh I agree, it's not easy. The US acquired the Philippines in 1898 and passed legislation in 1916 that made it official US policy to grant the Philippines Independence (and it was believed that was the only reasonable outcome testers earlier). So there's only 18 years to work with here. Just curious how it could have happened. Maybe a bigger Japanese threat earlier that makes leaders life Quezon decide that closer integration into the US would serve Philippine interests better than independence?
No agreement between Taft and Japan over Korea?
 

Driftless

Donor
I don't think its possible. Simply too many obstacles involved. Wrong languages, wrong skin color, too far away, wrong religions. We couldn't even get where things would need to be if there were an absolutely massive protestant missionary invasion and mass conversions. Then there are the problems of what political parties the new citizens would be part of, and the threats this massive segment of new voters would pose to the older established parties. Of course if one party were to jump in whole hog, and somehow gain a majority of votes then that party would support statehood/citizenship etc etc, but the other would very quickly engage in the meanest of demagogueries to stop the other. All in all, I just don't see a way for this to happen.

I agree the whole combination of ethnic and religious prejudice plus the distance and huge population would have made this POD very difficult. By comparison, the US had long standing economic ties to Cuba, and never seriously considered statehood as a driver. I think you'd need several POD's to make the Philippine/American relationship more amenable to both sides: a more aggressive and expansionist Japan at the turn of the Century AND avoid the running Philippine-American War after 1898. That contributed to racial and ethnic animosity across the board both between Americans and Filipinos and between Filipino groups(Civilize 'em with a Krag). I can't help think the by-products of that war retarded development of the post-Spanish Philippines. Progress was made over time, but it could have been better sooner

A caveat on the ethnic and religion bias - the US was historically willing to "digest" smaller blocks of Hispanics and Catholics - as long as the numbers were small and the territory gained was large.
 
Maybe. Or TR doesn't mediate the Russo-Japanese war? Or the treaty is more favorable to Russia, making Japan more hostile

No mediation might also mean no end of the war, or at least not as quickly. While the IJN did very well, the IJA took an enormous number of casualties, and Japan was about to start scraping the bottom of the manpower barrel, and economic difficulties were about to set in too. Russia was distracted by the 1905 revolution, but still had enormous resources to call upon, and was starting to get its shit together militarily. All that means is that the RJW wont end as favorably to Japan. That gives two possible points of divergence, either they become bellicose and expansionist earlier, or they are incapable of further expansion. I'm thinking they will be unable to become expansionist, as they are too busy trying to keep Russia at bay. Either way, its at least a generation before Japan can recover enough to try and move outwardly.
I'd have to think a lot more on what a Russian victory in the RJW would mean before commenting on that line of thought.
Anyway you slice it though, the PI will be a weak, vulnerable nation at risk of colonization when the US pulls out. And the US WILL pull out, regardless of what the PI wants. How long they can stay independent I just don't know, some sort of international agreement sort of like what Belgium had might work. This all brings me back to my original position however, I think there are too many obstacles to overcome for this to be plausible.
 
I agree the whole combination of ethnic and religious prejudice plus the distance and huge population would have made this POD very difficult. By comparison, the US had long standing economic ties to Cuba, and never seriously considered statehood as a driver. I think you'd need several POD's to make the Philippine/American relationship more amenable to both sides: a more aggressive and expansionist Japan at the turn of the Century AND avoid the running Philippine-American War after 1898. That contributed to racial and ethnic animosity across the board both between Americans and Filipinos and between Filipino groups(Civilize 'em with a Krag). I can't help think the by-products of that war retarded development of the post-Spanish Philippines. Progress was made over time, but it could have been better sooner

A caveat on the ethnic and religion bias - the US was historically willing to "digest" smaller blocks of Hispanics and Catholics - as long as the numbers were small and the territory gained was large.

True. In this case though, there are also substantial numbers of Moro's (Muslim), who have shown themselves very unlikely to wish to assimilate. All in all, I'm still not seeing a really plausible POD.
 

Driftless

Donor
True. In this case though, there are also substantial numbers of Moro's (Muslim), who have shown themselves very unlikely to wish to assimilate. All in all, I'm still not seeing a really plausible POD.

If I recall correctly, the current Philippine government is still engaged in periodic shoot-outs with some elements of the Moros. In hindsight, maybe cut bait after 1898 and subdivide the predominately Muslim sections of Mindanao and cede it to the Dutch East Indies.
 

SsgtC

Banned
To be honest, I couldn't really find one either. That's why I was asking. As early as 1901 TR already believed that the best course of action, and only inevitable outcome, was for the US to grant the Philippines their Independence. I wasn't sure if I had missed something though.

What about, instead of full statehood then, the Philippines are kept in a Commonwealth status? Internally self governing, but foreign policy and defense is handled by the US? Possibly with low or no barriers (over time) to travel between both countries?
 

Driftless

Donor
Commonwealth has more possibilities than early statehood, but I think you still need to avoid the Philippine American War for that to happen and that may be hard to pull off. There were a number of anti-Spanish rebellions on different islands at different times with disconnected leadership and goals, so even if the leadership on Luzon is on board, that may not hold true elsewhere.

If the Philippines were a commonwealth, would that change US strategy before and during WW2? The long standing War Plan Orange more or less assumed that our bases in the Philippines were not defensible at the start of a war with Japan, but would eventually be re-gained after a protracted fight.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Commonwealth has more possibilities than early statehood, but I think you still need to avoid the Philippine American War for that to happen and that may be hard to pull off. There were a number of anti-Spanish rebellions on different islands at different times with disconnected leadership and goals, so even if the leadership on Luzon is on board, that may not hold true elsewhere.

If the Philippines were a commonwealth, would that change US strategy before and during WW2? The long standing War Plan Orange more or less assumed that our bases in the Philippines were not defensible at the start of a war with Japan, but would eventually be re-gained after a protracted fight.
This is what I was wondering. How would the US approach defense of the Philippines if they're considered an integral part of the United States and not what was, for all intents and purposes, a throw away bit of land?
 

Marc

Donor
This is what I was wondering. How would the US approach defense of the Philippines if they're considered an integral part of the United States and not what was, for all intents and purposes, a throw away bit of land?

As others have noted, the starting premise requires multiple changes of policy and attitude, just not going to happen in any faintly plausible alternate. Think for a moment about the history of Puerto Rico and that it has remained at best a fairly marginal "commonwealth" territory. After the 1920's the general feeling towards how we dealt with the Philippines is mostly buyer's remorse.
 

Driftless

Donor
To aid the support (or recovery) of the Philippines, you'd probably need the US to build a string of fortified naval bases between the West Coast and Manila. Pearl Harbor of course, Wake Island, Guam? (but that probably needs the rest of the Marianas in US hands to work). Perhaps another Philippine stronghold? Davao? Cebu City? Pretty costly to build and maintain
 

SsgtC

Banned
As others have noted, the starting premise requires multiple changes of policy and attitude, just not going to happen in any faintly plausible alternate. Think for a moment about the history of Puerto Rico and that it has remained at best a fairly marginal "commonwealth" territory. After the 1920's the general feeling towards how we dealt with the Philippines is mostly buyer's remorse.
That's why it requires a POD before 1916. Because in 1916, it became official US policy to grant the Philippines Independence. It probably also requires butterflying away TR as President as in 1901 he already believed the Philippines should be granted Independence
 
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