AHC: The CSA from Sea to Shining Sea?

This isn't intended to become a wank, really...

Knowing full well that the Confederacy was on the defensive and didn't have designs on conquering the Union so to speak, what POD must be in place for the United States to become the Confederate States?

Civil War or at least the one IOTL is not a requirement. Perhaps a three way split of the nation (New England, South, North) and some disaster can result in the CSA getting lucky and occupying the North and West, or maybe the conquest takes place in a conflict post Civil War. An earlier Civil War with different aims? Some other earlier POD? An alternate Confederate President, more states seceding, and a more successful CSA Army could work too I suppose, but I'm leaving it up to you.

I don't know, I clearly don't have a lot of ideas or I wouldn't be posting this. So your challenge is to make the CSA the only America on the continent, by whatever means necessary.

Obviously, the outcome of whatever path you choose is expected. That should go without saying!

Thanks, guys.
 
Knowing full well that the Confederacy was on the defensive and didn't have designs on conquering the Union so to speak, what POD must be in place for the United States to become the Confederate States?

While the CSA didn’t want to acquire the whole of the US, they considered all slave-holding states to be theirs, leading to unsuccessful invasions of West Virginia, Maryland, Missouri, and Kentucky. In the last two cases they attempted to set up puppet governments as well. They also invaded US territories trying to obtain the mineral wealth. The California plan was scrapped due to geographical difficulties. The attempted CSA invasion of Colorado led to defeat by a mix of Union troops and territorial militia. In the end, the Confederacy only managed to acquire a slice of Arizona territory where they set up a puppet government.

Civil War or at least the one IOTL is not a requirement. Perhaps a three way split of the nation (New England, South, North) and some disaster can result in the CSA getting lucky and occupying the North and West, or maybe the conquest takes place in a conflict post Civil War.

It’s going to take a lot worse than a three way split to give the Confederacy a chance of doing this. It took the USA four years to occupy the CSA even though the CSA had 29% of the population. All else being equal that means the CSA should take about 4 years to conquer a country with a population of 3,750,000. (That’s about 1/8th of the Union.)

But all else is not equal; the Confederacy had a worse record on offense than the Union. And they’ll be unable to blockade any of these fragments of the Union. And the Union fragment won’t have 10% of its free draft-age population serving in the Confederate Army. And the Union fragment will have more industry than the entire Confederacy combined.
 
No amount of purely Confederate victories will get you there. The Confederates could realistically have defeated the Union forces in New Mexico territory in detail, and considering those were the only union forces that were stationed in California at the time they could then have gone on to make a royal mess. They could not however have gotten California at the peace table, not under any circumstances. Nor do I believe that they could realistically have laid hands on what became Arizona. At best they could probably have won Texas' claims to a Rio Grande border.

Luckily, there are alternatives. If mischance and disaster can successfully allow a conflict to arise between the Union and Britain before 1863, it's game over for the former. The US would lose New Orleans or never get it. The Confederacy would be free of the blockade and actually have a functioning economy. The US government, which relied on tariffs and ship-borne Californian gold for its income, would go bankrupt. There would be successes in Canada, of course, but meanwhile pressure on the CSA would be relieved and the whole Union economy would collapse. Massive anti-war fervor would erupt when the inevitable attempt began to apply direct taxation on top of the economic crisis.

In such situations, the UK and CSA would essentially be giving a dictated peace, the main limits being those of realpolitik. In such circumstances, all of the Indian and New Mexico territories could go to the CSA, and potentially Kentucky and West Virginia as well.

The latter two are important because you're going to have to go through Sonora or Baja California. California is just a no go. And no matter how you plan on getting Mexican territory, it will help to be a more wealthy and secure state. Nor to I believe the Turtledovian Purchase was terribly likely - Chihuahua is gigantic, hispanic, malarial, and dirt poor. But if the CSA was already on the Colorado River, only 40-odd miles from the Gulf of California.... An attempt at purchase or conquest is unavoidable.

It might even succeed.

Although Turtledove went with Sonora, I think Baja California is much more likely. In wasn't treated as a "real" state in Mexico until well after the period, was of little value to Mexico City, and had a much smaller population. Certainly Sonora is more valuable and includes a good port, but those are equally reasons the Mexicans would make more difficulty about conquest or refuse purchase. Baja just seems more realistic. Assuming such a purchase went ahead, I'd expect the east bank of the Colorado in Sonora to be purchased as well, possibly extending as far as OTL Puerto Penasco.

And there you'd go.
 
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No amount of purely Confederate victories will get you there. The Confederates could realistically have defeated the Union forces in New Mexico territory in detail, and considering those were the only union forces that were stationed in California at the time they could then have gone on to make a royal mess. They could not however have gotten California at the peace table, not under any circumstances. Nor do I believe that they could realistically have laid hands on what became Arizona. At best they could probably have won Texas' claims to a Rio Grande border.

Luckily, there are alternatives. If mischance and disaster can successfully allow a conflict to arise between the Union and Britain before 1863, it's game over for the former. The US would lose New Orleans or never get it. The Confederacy would be free of the blockade and actually have a functioning economy. The US government, which relied on tariffs and ship-borne Californian gold for its income, would go bankrupt. There would be successes in Canada, of course, but meanwhile pressure on the CSA would be relieved and the whole Union economy would collapse. Massive anti-war fervor would erupt when the inevitable attempt began to apply direct taxation on top of the economic crisis.

In such situations, the UK and CSA would essentially be giving a dictated peace, the main limits being those of realpolitik. In such circumstances, all of the Indian and New Mexico territories could go to the CSA, and potentially Kentucky and West Virginia as well.

The latter two are important because you're going to have to go through Sonora or Baja California. California is just a no go. And no matter how you plan on getting Mexican territory, it will help to be a more wealthy and secure state. Nor to I believe the Turtledovian Purchase was terribly likely - Chihuahua is gigantic, hispanic, malarial, and dirt poor. But if the CSA was already on the Colorado River, only 40-odd miles from the Gulf of California.... An attempt at purchase or conquest is unavoidable.

It might even succeed.

Although Turtledove went with Sonora, I think Baja California is much more likely. In wasn't treated as a "real" state in Mexico until well after the period, was of little value to Mexico City, and had a much smaller population. Certainly Sonora is more valuable and includes a good port, but those are equally reasons the Mexicans would make more difficulty about conquest or refuse purchase. Baja just seems more realistic. Assuming such a purchase went ahead, I'd expect the east bank of the Colorado in Sonora to be purchased as well, possibly extending as far as OTL Puerto Penasco.

And there you'd go.

That all helps a lot but I'm trying to make a C.S. that looks like OTL's U.S. and NOT a North American C.S.A. wank so-to-speak. I don't have my eyes on Mexican Territory. I like your start, though. What would happen if after a C.S.A./U.K. victory, a rift is rather quickly formed between the two and war comes. Can the C.S.A. with the help of occupied former Unionists retake the continent in the name of the Confederacy? And if so, what are the ramifications?

Thanks again for the help!
 
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