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This is a parallel to the thread elsewhere about the Axis World War 2 victory.

How can you have the Confederate States win the American Civil War after the firing on Fort Sumter and Lincoln's call for volunteers to put down the rebellion?

Winning conditions would be US recognition of a breakaway confederacy of at least ten states, with no federal enclaves in those states. This actually gives some allowance for the retention of Louisiana or Tennessee in the USA. Alternative victory conditions are an United USA with slavery legal and constitutionally protected in at least fourteen states and in all federal territories.
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